Football · Kenya Premier League · 28/10, 14:15

Prediction: Mara Sugar FC vs AFC Leopards

Team pages: Mara Sugar FC · AFC Leopards

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.01Total

Mara Sugar FC0.98

AFC Leopards1.03

1X2

32% 33% 35%

Mara Sugar FC Draw AFC Leopards

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 67% Not both to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Mara Sugar FC 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WWLWLDLDWD

AFC Leopards 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LLWWWLLDWD

Head-to-head

Mara Sugar FC 1–1–2 AFC Leopards (4 last)

AFC Leopards2-1Mara Sugar FC
Mara Sugar FC2-0AFC Leopards
Mara Sugar FC1-2AFC Leopards
AFC Leopards1-1Mara Sugar FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Mara Sugar FC 1521 · AFC Leopards 1501

	Mara Sugar FC	Draw	AFC Leopards
Our model	32%	33%	35%
Market	33%	32%	35%

Estimated total (ours) 2.01 goals · Bet365 line 1.75 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours AFC Leopards: 2-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 5.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Mara Sugar FC	AFC Leopards
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 0.8	1 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.3	0.4 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	38/50/13%	20/70/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.3 / 4.3	2.8 / 5.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.4 / 0	2.7 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.75

X2.80

22.55

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)2.00

2 (0)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 1.751.75

Under 1.752.05

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 1.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:09

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.75 → 2.75	Bet365 2.75
X	2.80 → 2.80	Bet365 2.80
2	2.55 → 2.55	Bet365 2.55

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
17:04 +5’	2.75	2.80	2.55

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Mara Sugar FC 1–1–2 AFC Leopards

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Date	Home	Score	Away
09/05/26 Kenya Premier League	AFC Leopards	2-1 HT 1-1	Mara Sugar FC
08/11/25 Kenya Premier League	Mara Sugar FC	2-0 HT 0-0	AFC Leopards
15/02/25 Kenya Premier League	Mara Sugar FC	1-2 HT 0-1	AFC Leopards
10/11/24 Kenya Premier League	AFC Leopards	1-1 HT 0-1	Mara Sugar FC

Standings · Kenya Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Gor Mahia	3	3	0	0	6	2	9
2	3K FC	3	1	2	0	5	4	5
3	Mara Sugar FC	3	1	2	0	4	3	5
4	AFC Leopards	3	1	2	0	2	1	5
5	Shabana FC	3	1	2	0	1	0	5
6	Kakamega Homeboyz	2	1	1	0	2	1	4
7	KCB	3	1	1	1	3	3	4
8	Tusker	1	1	0	0	2	0	3
9	Muranga Seal	3	1	0	2	8	7	3
10	Nairobi United	3	0	3	0	3	3	3
11	Posta Rangers	3	1	0	2	2	6	3
12	Migori Youth	2	0	2	0	1	1	2
13	Administration Police FC	3	0	2	1	2	3	2
14	APS Bomet	3	0	2	1	1	2	2
14	Bandari FC	3	0	2	1	1	2	2
16	Mathare United	3	0	2	1	0	1	2
17	Ulinzi Stars	3	0	2	1	1	3	2
18	Mombasa United	3	0	1	2	1	3	1

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Mara Sugar FC	AFC Leopards
Ulinzi Stars	0-0 D	2-0 W
Gor Mahia	0-0 D	0-1 L
Shabana FC	1-0 W	0-0 D
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 0 L	1 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Mara Sugar FC (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Mara Sugar FC

WWLWLDLDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Ulinzi Stars Kenya Premier League	0-0	0-0	5	2	D
19/10	Mombasa United Kenya Premier League	2-0	2-1	7	2	W
11/10	3K FC Kenya Premier League	1-0	2-2	2	3	D
31/05	Muranga Seal Kenya Premier League	–	1-2	–	–	L
27/05	Gor Mahia Kenya Premier League	–	0-0	–	–	D
16/05	Mathare United Kenya Premier League	0-1	0-1	8	3	L
13/05	Shabana FC Kenya Premier League	0-0	1-0	1	1	W
09/05	AFC Leopards Kenya Premier League	1-1	1-2	4	1	L
24/04	Tusker Kenya Premier League	0-0	1-0	5	6	W
18/04	Kariobangi Sharks Kenya Premier League	1-0	1-0	2	1	W

AFC Leopards

LLWWWLLDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/10	Shabana FC Kenya Premier League	0-0	0-0	6	0	D
20/10	Administration Police FC Kenya Premier League	0-0	2-1	4	8	W
14/10	Bandari FC Kenya Premier League	0-0	0-0	11	1	D
31/05	Bidco United Kenya Premier League	0-0	1-2	5	0	L
24/05	APS Bomet Kenya Premier League	0-0	1-2	2	2	L
16/05	Kakamega Homeboyz Kenya Premier League	2-0	2-1	2	4	W
13/05	Ulinzi Stars Kenya Premier League	1-0	2-0	6	4	W
09/05	Mara Sugar FC Kenya Premier League	1-1	2-1	9	1	W
26/04	Gor Mahia Kenya Premier League	0-0	0-1	1	4	L
18/04	Administration Police FC Kenya Premier League	0-3	0-3	6	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Mara Sugar FC vs AFC Leopards?

According to our model, the most likely result is an AFC Leopards win (35%). Probabilities: Mara Sugar FC 32%, draw 33%, AFC Leopards 35%.

How many goals are expected in Mara Sugar FC vs AFC Leopards?

The model expects 2.01 goals (Mara Sugar FC 0.98 · AFC Leopards 1.03), with a 54% chance of over 1.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Mara Sugar FC vs AFC Leopards?

The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.