Football · Panama Liga Prom · 21/10, 01:00

Prediction: Chorrillo vs San Martin FC

Team pages: Chorrillo · San Martin FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.16Total

Chorrillo2.22

San Martin FC0.94

1X2

66% 21% 14%

Chorrillo Draw San Martin FC

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

2-0 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Chorrillo 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

DWWDLWWWLW

San Martin FC 1-1-8 (W-D-L)

LLLLLDWLLL

Head-to-head

Chorrillo 3–2–1 San Martin FC (6 last)

San Martin FC1-4Chorrillo
San Martin FC3-0Chorrillo
Chorrillo1-0San Martin FC
Chorrillo3-3San Martin FC
San Martin FC0-1Chorrillo
San Martin FC2-2Chorrillo

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Chorrillo 1567 · San Martin FC 1408

	Chorrillo	Draw	San Martin FC
Our model	66%	21%	14%
Market	66%	21%	14%

Estimated total (ours) 3.16 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Chorrillo (rating 1567 vs 1408).
H2H favours Chorrillo: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 12.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Chorrillo	San Martin FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 0.6	1.1 / 2.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 0.3	0.6 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	11/67/22%	22/22/56%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 4.7	1.7 / 4.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	7 / 0.3	5.1 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

11.36

X4.33

26.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.5)1.95

2 (+1.5)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 31.82

Under 31.98

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.85

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:04

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.36 → 1.36	Bet365 1.36
X	4.33 → 4.33	Bet365 4.33
2	6.50 → 6.50	Bet365 6.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.8%

Time*	1	X	2
12:58 +6’	1.36	4.33	6.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Chorrillo 3–2–1 San Martin FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
30/07/26 Panama Liga Prom	San Martin FC	1-4	Chorrillo
10/04/26 Panama Liga Prom	San Martin FC	3-0 HT 1-0	Chorrillo
21/01/26 Panama Liga Prom	Chorrillo	1-0 HT 0-0	San Martin FC
24/10/25 Panama Liga Prom	Chorrillo	3-3 HT 2-2	San Martin FC
18/08/25 Panama Liga Prom	San Martin FC	0-1 HT 0-1	Chorrillo
12/04/25 Panama Liga Prom	San Martin FC	2-2 HT 2-2	Chorrillo

Standings · Panama Liga Prom · Apertura, East-South

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Tauro FC Reserves	13	7	4	2	26	17	25
2	Chorrillo	12	7	3	2	22	9	24
3	Plaza Amador Reserves	12	6	2	4	26	18	20
4	Potros Del Este	13	3	3	7	13	17	12
5	Alianza FC Reserves	12	3	3	6	9	18	12
6	San Martin FC	12	2	1	9	16	29	7

Common opponents 10 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Chorrillo	San Martin FC
Tauro FC Reserves	2-1 W	0-1 L
Panama City FC	1-2 L	0-2 L
UMECIT Reserves	3-0 W	4-2 W
Champions FC Academy	3-0 W	2-2 D
Academia Costa Del Este	3-2 W	2-3 L
Sporting San Miguelito Reserves	0-1 L	0-1 L
CD Arabe Unido Reserves	0-0 D	0-7 L
Potros Del Este	1-0 W	1-2 L
Plaza Amador Reserves	3-0 W	2-3 L
Alianza FC Reserves	0-0 D	0-1 L
Record vs common	6 W 2 D 2 L	1 W 1 D 8 L

Better against common opponents: Chorrillo (9 of 10 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Chorrillo

DWWDLWWWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/10	Tauro FC Reserves Panama Liga Prom	0-0	2-1	1	8	W
03/10	Panama City FC Panama Liga Prom	0-1	1-2	3	8	L
26/09	UMECIT Reserves Panama Liga Prom	0-0	3-0	5	6	W
18/09	Champions FC Academy Panama Liga Prom	0-0	3-0	8	7	W
11/09	Academia Costa Del Este Panama Liga Prom	1-2	3-2	6	10	W
05/09	Sporting San Miguelito Reserves Panama Liga Prom	–	0-1	–	–	L
27/08	CD Arabe Unido Reserves Panama Liga Prom	0-0	0-0	3	7	D
20/08	Potros Del Este Panama Liga Prom	0-0	1-0	3	9	W
12/08	Plaza Amador Reserves Panama Liga Prom	1-0	3-0	5	3	W
06/08	Alianza FC Reserves Panama Liga Prom	0-0	0-0	8	8	D

San Martin FC

LLLLLDWLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/10	Alianza FC Reserves Panama Liga Prom	0-0	0-1	5	7	L
02/10	CD Arabe Unido Reserves Panama Liga Prom	0-2	0-7	3	1	L
27/09	Panama City FC Panama Liga Prom	0-2	0-2	4	6	L
20/09	UMECIT Reserves Panama Liga Prom	3-0	4-2	1	10	W
13/09	Champions FC Academy Panama Liga Prom	2-0	2-2	5	10	D
06/09	Academia Costa Del Este Panama Liga Prom	–	2-3	–	–	L
28/08	Sporting San Miguelito Reserves Panama Liga Prom	0-1	0-1	4	2	L
22/08	Plaza Amador Reserves Panama Liga Prom	0-1	2-3	6	3	L
16/08	Tauro FC Reserves Panama Liga Prom	0-1	0-1	5	4	L
06/08	Potros Del Este Panama Liga Prom	0-0	1-2	4	7	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Chorrillo vs San Martin FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Chorrillo win (66%). Probabilities: Chorrillo 66%, draw 21%, San Martin FC 14%.

How many goals are expected in Chorrillo vs San Martin FC?

The model expects 3.16 goals (Chorrillo 2.22 · San Martin FC 0.94), with a 51% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Chorrillo vs San Martin FC?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.