Football · Panama Liga Prom · 21/10, 16:00

Prediction: CA Independiente de la Chorrera Reserves vs San Francisco Reserves

Team pages: CA Independiente de la Chorrera Reserves · San Francisco Reserves

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.8Total

CA Independiente de la Chorrera Reserves1.77

San Francisco Reserves1.04

1X2

54% 25% 21%

CA Independiente de la Chorrera Reserves Draw San Francisco Reserves

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

CA Independiente de la Chorrera Reserves 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

WDDWWLWDWW

San Francisco Reserves 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

LDLWLWWWWL

Head-to-head

CA Independiente de la Chorrera Reserves 3–3–0 San Francisco Reserves (6 last)

San Francisco Reserves2-2CA Independiente de la Chorrera Reserves
CA Independiente de la Chorrera Reserves0-0San Francisco Reserves
San Francisco Reserves1-1CA Independiente de la Chorrera Reserves
CA Independiente de la Chorrera Reserves1-0San Francisco Reserves
San Francisco Reserves1-3CA Independiente de la Chorrera Reserves
San Francisco Reserves2-3CA Independiente de la Chorrera Reserves

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · CA Independiente de la Chorrera Reserves 1576 · San Francisco Reserves 1506

	CA Independiente de la Chorrera Reserves	Draw	San Francisco Reserves
Our model	53%	26%	21%
Market	54%	24%	22%

Estimated total (ours) 2.8 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 50%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours CA Independiente de la Chorrera Reserves (rating 1576 vs 1506).
H2H favours CA Independiente de la Chorrera Reserves: 3-3-0.
Cards-heavy: 10.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	CA Independiente de la Chorrera Reserves	San Francisco Reserves
Goals for / against (FT)	2.1 / 1.2	1.4 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.3	0.6 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	29/57/14%	22/44/33%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 5.1	2.2 / 4.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.3 / 0.6	5 / 0.7

Odds Bet365

11.65

X3.80

24.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.80

2 (+0.75)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 31.93

Under 31.88

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 3.2

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 14:05

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.50 → 1.65▲	Bet365 1.65
X	4.00 → 3.80▼	Bet365 3.80
2	5.00 → 4.10▼	Bet365 4.10

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
12:59 +6’	1.50	4.00	5.00
13:55 +10’	1.65▲	3.80▼	4.10▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · CA Independiente de la Chorrera Reserves 3–3–0 San Francisco Reserves

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Date	Home	Score	Away
07/08/26 Panama Liga Prom	San Francisco Reserves	2-2 HT 1-1	CA Independiente de la Chorrera Reserves
18/04/26 Panama Liga Prom	CA Independiente de la Chorrera Reserves	0-0	San Francisco Reserves
11/02/26 Panama Liga Prom	San Francisco Reserves	1-1 HT 1-0	CA Independiente de la Chorrera Reserves
26/10/25 Panama Liga Prom	CA Independiente de la Chorrera Reserves	1-0 HT 1-0	San Francisco Reserves
08/08/25 Panama Liga Prom	San Francisco Reserves	1-3 HT 0-2	CA Independiente de la Chorrera Reserves
03/05/25 Panama Liga Prom	San Francisco Reserves	2-3 HT 2-2	CA Independiente de la Chorrera Reserves

Standings · Panama Liga Prom · Apertura, West-South

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Aguilas de la U	12	10	0	2	37	9	30
2	Udelas FC	12	10	0	2	32	11	30
3	CA Independiente de la Chorrera Reserves	11	7	3	1	23	13	24
4	SD Atletico Nacional	11	7	0	4	24	23	21
5	San Francisco Reserves	12	6	1	5	19	20	19
6	Union Cocle Reserves	11	2	3	6	11	23	9

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	CA Independiente de la Chorrera Reserves	San Francisco Reserves
Aguilas de la U	2-0 W	0-2 L
Bocas	1-1 D	4-1 W
Veraguas United Reserves	4-2 W	1-4 L
CD Universitario Reserves	1-2 L	1-0 W
La Familia FC	3-2 W	2-1 W
Union Cocle Reserves	1-1 D	3-1 W
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 1 L	4 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: San Francisco Reserves (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

CA Independiente de la Chorrera Reserves

WDDWWLWDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Aguilas de la U Panama Liga Prom	0-0	2-0	5	3	W
26/09	Rayados de Chiriqui Panama Liga Prom	0-0	2-0	7	10	W
18/09	Bocas Panama Liga Prom	–	1-1	–	–	D
11/09	Veraguas United Reserves Panama Liga Prom	–	4-2	–	–	W
05/09	CD Universitario Reserves Panama Liga Prom	0-1	1-2	4	8	L
29/08	La Familia FC Panama Liga Prom	2-0	3-2	4	9	W
22/08	SD Atletico Nacional Panama Liga Prom	–	4-2	–	–	W
12/08	Union Cocle Reserves Panama Liga Prom	1-0	1-1	7	3	D
07/08	San Francisco Reserves Panama Liga Prom	1-1	2-2	3	6	D
01/08	Aguilas de la U Panama Liga Prom	0-0	1-0	6	2	W

San Francisco Reserves

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/10	Udelas FC Panama Liga Prom	0-3	0-3	8	3	L
01/10	CD Universitario Reserves Panama Liga Prom	1-0	1-0	5	3	W
27/09	La Familia FC Panama Liga Prom	0-0	2-1	6	9	W
19/09	Herrera FC Reserves Panama Liga Prom	0-0	1-0	4	6	W
04/09	Bocas Panama Liga Prom	–	4-1	–	–	W
28/08	Veraguas United Reserves Panama Liga Prom	1-2	1-4	5	4	L
21/08	Union Cocle Reserves Panama Liga Prom	2-1	3-1	2	8	W
15/08	Aguilas de la U Panama Liga Prom	0-0	0-2	5	4	L
07/08	CA Independiente de la Chorrera Reserves Panama Liga Prom	1-1	2-2	1	6	D
01/08	Udelas FC Panama Liga Prom	0-1	0-3	4	8	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in CA Independiente de la Chorrera Reserves vs San Francisco Reserves?

According to our model, the most likely result is a CA Independiente de la Chorrera Reserves win (54%). Probabilities: CA Independiente de la Chorrera Reserves 54%, draw 25%, San Francisco Reserves 21%.

How many goals are expected in CA Independiente de la Chorrera Reserves vs San Francisco Reserves?

The model expects 2.8 goals (CA Independiente de la Chorrera Reserves 1.77 · San Francisco Reserves 1.04), with a 55% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in CA Independiente de la Chorrera Reserves vs San Francisco Reserves?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.