Football · England Northern Premier League · 10/11, 20:45

Prediction: Workington vs Alfreton Town

Team pages: Workington · Alfreton Town

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.06Total

Workington1.56

Alfreton Town1.5

1X2

39% 25% 36%

Workington Draw Alfreton Town

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 63% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Workington 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

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Alfreton Town 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

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Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Workington 1539 · Alfreton Town 1509

	Workington	Draw	Alfreton Town
Our model	38%	26%	36%
Market	39%	24%	37%

Estimated total (ours) 3.06 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 6.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Workington	Alfreton Town
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.3	1.2 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 0.7	0.4 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/50/50%	22/56/22%
Corners (HT / FT)	1 / 2.5	3 / 5.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.5 / 0.3	3.4 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.30

X3.70

22.45

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.82

2 (0)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 31.82

Under 31.98

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:58

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.30 → 2.30	Bet365 2.30
X	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70
2	2.45 → 2.45	Bet365 2.45

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
12:56 +3’	2.30	3.70	2.45

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Standings · England Northern Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Cleethorpes Town	16	11	3	2	34	9	36
2	Redcar Athletic	17	10	5	2	37	19	35
3	Curzon Ashton	17	11	1	5	31	18	34
4	Guiseley	15	10	2	3	33	15	32
5	Gainsborough	17	9	2	6	33	24	29
6	Warrington Town	17	8	5	4	31	24	29
7	Warrington Rylands	16	9	2	5	30	23	29
8	Avro FC	17	9	2	6	39	33	29
9	Workington	17	8	3	6	28	27	27
10	Bury	15	8	2	5	31	18	26
11	Alfreton Town	17	7	2	8	23	22	23
12	Emley AFC	18	6	5	7	21	29	23
13	Quorn	16	5	6	5	31	32	21
14	Lancaster City	18	6	3	9	20	31	21
15	Whitby	17	6	1	10	23	44	19
16	Hyde Utd	17	5	3	9	19	32	18
17	Ashton Utd	17	4	5	8	19	21	17
18	Leek Town	17	4	5	8	34	39	17
19	Stockton Town	17	4	3	10	23	29	15
20	Ilkeston	17	4	1	12	13	37	13
21	FC United of Manchester	16	2	6	8	20	27	12
22	Bamber Bridge	17	2	5	10	18	38	11

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Workington	Alfreton Town
Ashton Utd	0-1 L	0-0 D
Bury	2-1 W	2-3 L
Bamber Bridge	2-1 W	0-1 L
Whitby	1-2 L	4-1 W
Quorn	0-3 L	0-4 L
Warrington Town	2-2 D	1-1 D
Emley AFC	3-1 W	2-1 W
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 3 L	2 W 2 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Workington (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Workington

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Ashton Utd England Northern Premier League	–	0-1	–	–	L
31/10	Bury England Northern Premier League	0-0	2-1	4	4	W
17/10	Bamber Bridge England Northern Premier League	0-0	2-1	4	1	W
13/10	Whitby England Northern Premier League	–	1-2	–	–	L
10/10	Quorn England Northern Premier League	0-1	0-3	3	6	L
06/10	Warrington Town England Northern Premier League	1-2	2-2	1	3	D
03/10	Cleethorpes Town England Northern Premier League	0-0	1-1	0	5	D
29/09	Emley AFC England Northern Premier League	0-1	3-1	3	4	W
12/09	Ilkeston England Northern Premier League	–	3-1	–	–	W
31/08	Lancaster City England Northern Premier League	–	3-0	–	–	W

Alfreton Town

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/11	Quorn England Northern Premier League	0-1	0-4	6	3	L
31/10	Emley AFC England Northern Premier League	0-0	2-1	8	7	W
17/10	Warrington Town England Northern Premier League	0-0	1-1	4	3	D
13/10	Ashton Utd England Northern Premier League	0-0	0-0	5	4	D
10/10	Bury England Northern Premier League	1-2	2-3	4	5	L
06/10	FC United of Manchester England Northern Premier League	0-0	1-0	3	1	W
03/10	Redcar Athletic England Northern Premier League	–	1-3	–	–	L
29/09	Guiseley England Northern Premier League	1-0	1-0	4	6	W
12/09	Bamber Bridge England Northern Premier League	0-0	0-1	6	1	L
31/08	Whitby England Northern Premier League	2-0	4-1	6	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Workington vs Alfreton Town?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Workington win (39%). Probabilities: Workington 39%, draw 25%, Alfreton Town 36%.

How many goals are expected in Workington vs Alfreton Town?

The model expects 3.06 goals (Workington 1.56 · Alfreton Town 1.5), with a 50% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Workington vs Alfreton Town?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.