Football · England Northern Premier League · 17/11, 20:45

Prediction: Guiseley vs Ashton Utd

Team pages: Guiseley · Ashton Utd

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.05Total

Guiseley1.91

Ashton Utd1.14

1X2

55% 23% 22%

Guiseley Draw Ashton Utd

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 64% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Guiseley 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

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Ashton Utd 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Guiseley 4–2–0 Ashton Utd (6 last)

Ashton Utd1-1Guiseley
Guiseley4-2Ashton Utd
Guiseley1-0Ashton Utd
Ashton Utd2-4Guiseley
Guiseley3-0Ashton Utd
Ashton Utd1-1Guiseley

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Guiseley 1597 · Ashton Utd 1467

	Guiseley	Draw	Ashton Utd
Our model	54%	24%	21%
Market	56%	22%	22%

Estimated total (ours) 3.05 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Guiseley (rating 1597 vs 1467).
H2H favours Guiseley: 4-2-0.
Cards-heavy: 8.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Guiseley	Ashton Utd
Goals for / against (FT)	2.1 / 0.9	0.9 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.4	0.3 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	56/22/22%	13/38/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 4.1	2.3 / 4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.7 / 0	3.6 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.61

X4.10

24.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.80

2 (+0.75)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 31.90

Under 31.90

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:26

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.61 → 1.61	Bet365 1.61
X	4.10 → 4.10	Bet365 4.10
2	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
12:58 +28’	1.61	4.10	4.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Guiseley 4–2–0 Ashton Utd

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/04/26 England Northern Premier League	Ashton Utd	1-1 HT 0-1	Guiseley
22/11/25 England Northern Premier League	Guiseley	4-2 HT 0-2	Ashton Utd
01/03/25 England Northern Premier League	Guiseley	1-0 HT 1-0	Ashton Utd
19/11/24 England Northern Premier League	Ashton Utd	2-4 HT 1-1	Guiseley
31/08/24 England FA Cup Qualification	Guiseley	3-0 HT 1-0	Ashton Utd
10/02/24 England Northern Premier League	Ashton Utd	1-1 HT 0-1	Guiseley

Standings · England Northern Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Redcar Athletic	19	12	5	2	43	19	41
2	Curzon Ashton	18	12	1	5	32	18	37
3	Cleethorpes Town	18	11	3	4	35	13	36
4	Guiseley	16	10	3	3	34	16	33
5	Warrington Rylands	18	10	3	5	36	25	33
6	Avro FC	18	10	2	6	42	34	32
7	Workington	18	9	3	6	31	27	30
8	Bury	16	9	2	5	32	18	29
9	Gainsborough	18	9	2	7	34	27	29
10	Warrington Town	18	8	5	5	31	26	29
11	Lancaster City	19	7	3	9	23	32	24
12	Alfreton Town	18	7	2	9	23	25	23
13	Emley AFC	18	6	5	7	21	29	23
14	Quorn	17	5	6	6	33	35	21
15	Stockton Town	19	6	3	10	29	32	21
16	Whitby	19	6	1	12	25	52	19
17	Hyde Utd	17	5	3	9	19	32	18
18	Ashton Utd	17	4	5	8	19	21	17
19	Leek Town	17	4	5	8	34	39	17
20	FC United of Manchester	17	3	6	8	22	27	15
21	Ilkeston	19	4	1	14	13	40	13
22	Bamber Bridge	18	2	5	11	18	42	11

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Guiseley	Ashton Utd
Warrington Rylands	1-1 D	1-2 L
Leek Town	4-1 W	2-2 D
Redcar Athletic	2-2 D	1-2 L
Cleethorpes Town	2-1 W	0-1 L
Avro FC	1-0 W	2-3 L
Alfreton Town	0-1 L	0-0 D
Quorn	4-1 W	2-2 D
Record vs common	4 W 2 D 1 L	0 W 3 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Guiseley (6 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Guiseley

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/11	Warrington Rylands England Northern Premier League	1-0	1-1	2	3	D
03/11	Leek Town England Northern Premier League	1-1	4-1	4	0	W
31/10	Redcar Athletic England Northern Premier League	0-2	2-2	4	6	D
20/10	Cleethorpes Town England Northern Premier League	1-0	2-1	5	4	W
10/10	Avro FC England Northern Premier League	0-0	1-0	2	6	W
06/10	Ilkeston England Northern Premier League	1-0	2-0	7	7	W
29/09	Alfreton Town England Northern Premier League	0-1	0-1	6	6	L
12/09	Quorn England Northern Premier League	–	4-1	–	–	W
31/08	Emley AFC England Northern Premier League	2-0	4-0	4	5	W
28/08	Lancaster City England Northern Premier League	1-0	1-2	3	5	L

Ashton Utd

LLDDDLLLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Workington England Northern Premier League	–	1-0	–	–	W
03/11	Warrington Town England Northern Premier League	0-0	0-1	3	3	L
31/10	Warrington Rylands England Northern Premier League	1-2	1-2	5	4	L
21/10	Avro FC England Northern Premier League	0-3	2-3	3	2	L
17/10	Redcar Athletic England Northern Premier League	0-2	1-2	7	3	L
13/10	Alfreton Town England Northern Premier League	0-0	0-0	4	4	D
10/10	Leek Town England Northern Premier League	–	2-2	–	–	D
06/10	Quorn England Northern Premier League	1-0	2-2	2	6	D
12/09	Cleethorpes Town England Northern Premier League	0-0	0-1	3	2	L
31/08	Curzon Ashton England Northern Premier League	0-2	0-2	5	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Guiseley vs Ashton Utd?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Guiseley win (55%). Probabilities: Guiseley 55%, draw 23%, Ashton Utd 22%.

How many goals are expected in Guiseley vs Ashton Utd?

The model expects 3.05 goals (Guiseley 1.91 · Ashton Utd 1.14), with a 51% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Guiseley vs Ashton Utd?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.