Football · England Northern Premier League · 17/11, 20:45

Prediction: Quorn vs Bury

Team pages: Quorn · Bury

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.05Total

Quorn1.63

Bury2.42

1X2

25% 21% 54%

Quorn Draw Bury

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 61%

Most likely score

1-2 8%

Recent form · 10 last

Quorn 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

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Bury 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

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Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Quorn 1501 · Bury 1524

	Quorn	Draw	Bury
Our model	25%	21%	54%
Market	25%	21%	54%

Estimated total (ours) 4.05 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 73%model estimate

Match keys

High corners: 12.9 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Quorn	Bury
Goals for / against (FT)	2.4 / 2	2.5 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.6	1.6 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	38/25/38%	56/33/11%
Corners (HT / FT)	3 / 5.8	2.9 / 7.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.8 / 0.1	3.2 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

13.60

X4.33

21.65

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)1.95

2 (-0.75)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.90

Under 3.51.90

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 4.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:27

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
X	4.33 → 4.33	Bet365 4.33
2	1.65 → 1.65	Bet365 1.65

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
12:59 +28’	3.60	4.33	1.65

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · England Northern Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Redcar Athletic	19	12	5	2	43	19	41
2	Curzon Ashton	18	12	1	5	32	18	37
3	Cleethorpes Town	18	11	3	4	35	13	36
4	Guiseley	16	10	3	3	34	16	33
5	Warrington Rylands	18	10	3	5	36	25	33
6	Avro FC	18	10	2	6	42	34	32
7	Workington	18	9	3	6	31	27	30
8	Bury	16	9	2	5	32	18	29
9	Gainsborough	18	9	2	7	34	27	29
10	Warrington Town	18	8	5	5	31	26	29
11	Lancaster City	19	7	3	9	23	32	24
12	Alfreton Town	18	7	2	9	23	25	23
13	Emley AFC	18	6	5	7	21	29	23
14	Quorn	17	5	6	6	33	35	21
15	Stockton Town	19	6	3	10	29	32	21
16	Whitby	19	6	1	12	25	52	19
17	Hyde Utd	17	5	3	9	19	32	18
18	Ashton Utd	17	4	5	8	19	21	17
19	Leek Town	17	4	5	8	34	39	17
20	FC United of Manchester	17	3	6	8	22	27	15
21	Ilkeston	19	4	1	14	13	40	13
22	Bamber Bridge	18	2	5	11	18	42	11

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Quorn	Bury
Stockton Town	2-3 L	0-1 L
Alfreton Town	4-0 W	3-2 W
Hyde Utd	2-2 D	1-2 L
Workington	3-0 W	1-2 L
Bamber Bridge	4-2 W	1-0 W
Ilkeston	2-0 W	7-0 W
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 1 L	3 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Quorn (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Quorn

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/11	Stockton Town England Northern Premier League	1-2	2-3	6	4	L
06/11	Alfreton Town England Northern Premier League	1-0	4-0	8	3	W
27/10	FC United of Manchester England Northern Premier League	0-1	1-1	6	2	D
13/10	Hyde Utd England Northern Premier League	1-1	2-2	0	8	D
10/10	Workington England Northern Premier League	1-0	3-0	7	6	W
06/10	Ashton Utd England Northern Premier League	0-1	2-2	7	6	D
03/10	Bamber Bridge England Northern Premier League	2-0	4-2	7	1	W
12/09	Guiseley England Northern Premier League	–	1-4	–	–	L
31/08	Ilkeston England Northern Premier League	0-0	2-0	5	1	W
29/08	Whitby England Northern Premier League	–	3-6	–	–	L

Bury

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/11	Cleethorpes Town England Northern Premier League	0-0	1-0	12	5	W
07/11	Bamber Bridge England Northern Premier League	1-0	1-0	5	3	W
03/11	Avro FC England Northern Premier League	0-1	2-2	7	4	D
31/10	Workington England Northern Premier League	0-0	1-2	4	4	L
27/10	Leek Town England Northern Premier League	3-0	5-3	7	5	W
10/10	Alfreton Town England Northern Premier League	2-1	3-2	5	5	W
06/10	Stockton Town England Northern Premier League	–	0-1	–	–	L
12/09	Emley AFC England Northern Premier League	3-0	4-0	7	1	W
31/08	Hyde Utd England Northern Premier League	1-1	1-2	7	3	L
29/08	Ilkeston England Northern Premier League	4-0	7-0	10	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Quorn vs Bury?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Bury win (54%). Probabilities: Quorn 25%, draw 21%, Bury 54%.

How many goals are expected in Quorn vs Bury?

The model expects 4.05 goals (Quorn 1.63 · Bury 2.42), with a 53% chance of over 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Quorn vs Bury?

The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.