Football · Italy Serie D · 18/10, 15:00

Prediction: Martina vs Nocerina

Team pages: Martina · Nocerina

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.6Total

Martina1.49

Nocerina1.11

1X2

45% 28% 27%

Martina Draw Nocerina

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Martina 6-0-4 (W-D-L)

WLLLWWLWWW

Nocerina 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

DLLWDWLWWL

Head-to-head

Martina 2–1–2 Nocerina (5 last)

Nocerina2-1Martina
Martina0-0Nocerina
Nocerina0-2Martina
Nocerina0-1Martina
Martina0-1Nocerina

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Martina 1536 · Nocerina 1512

	Martina	Draw	Nocerina
Our model	45%	28%	27%
Market	45%	28%	27%

Estimated total (ours) 2.6 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 7.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Martina	Nocerina
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.1	1.3 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.6	0.3 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	43/29/29%	0/67/33%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.2 / 5.7	1.7 / 4.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0.4	2.8 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.00

X3.25

23.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.80

2 (+0.25)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.98

Under 2.51.82

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:01

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.00 → 2.00	Bet365 2.00
X	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25
2	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
16:55 +6’	2.00	3.25	3.30

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Martina 2–1–2 Nocerina

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/05/25 Italy Serie D Play-Offs	Nocerina	2-1 HT 1-1	Martina
23/03/25 Italy Serie D	Martina	0-0 HT 0-0	Nocerina
10/11/24 Italy Serie D	Nocerina	0-2 HT 0-1	Martina
22/01/23 Italy Serie D	Nocerina	0-1 HT 0-0	Martina
18/09/22 Italy Serie D	Martina	0-1 HT 0-1	Nocerina

Standings · Italy Serie D

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Reggina	7	5	1	1	16	2	16
2	Sambiase	7	5	1	1	11	5	16
3	Calcio Avola 1949	7	5	0	2	11	10	15
4	Vibonese	7	4	2	1	16	6	14
5	ASD Licata	7	4	2	1	10	9	14
6	ASD Digiesse PraiaTortora	7	3	3	1	13	5	12
7	Igea Virtus	7	3	2	2	16	14	11
8	Milazzo	7	3	1	3	6	9	10
9	Nissa FC	7	2	3	2	10	10	9
10	SSD Athletic Club Palermo	7	2	2	3	10	10	8
11	Siracusa	7	4	2	1	11	5	7
12	Modica	7	2	1	4	7	10	7
13	ASD CastrumFavara	7	2	1	4	8	9	7
14	Città di Gela	7	1	3	3	5	7	5
15	Vigor Lamezia	7	1	2	4	7	16	5
16	ASD Ragusa	7	0	3	4	5	10	3
17	Trapani	7	2	0	5	3	11	1
18	Enna Calcio	7	0	1	6	0	17	1

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Martina

WLLLWWLWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	Ebolitana Italy Serie D	–	2-0	–	–	W
04/10	FC Francavilla Italy Serie D	0-0	1-0	6	2	W
27/09	AC Nardo Italy Serie D	1-0	3-0	3	6	W
20/09	Virtus Francavilla Italy Serie D	–	1-2	–	–	L
16/09	Real Aversa 1925 Italy Serie D	1-1	2-1	7	6	W
13/09	Real Forio 2014 Italy Serie D	1-0	2-0	9	5	W
06/09	SS Turris Calcio Italy Serie D	–	3-4	–	–	L
17/05	Paganese Italy Serie D	0-1	0-1	6	5	L
03/05	SS Nola 1925 Italy Serie D	0-1	1-2	2	6	L
26/04	ASD Heraclea Italy Serie D	2-1	2-1	7	3	W

Nocerina

DLLWDWLWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	Brindisi FC Italy Serie D	0-0	0-1	4	3	L
04/10	Melfi Italy Serie D	–	1-0	–	–	W
27/09	US Palmese 1914 Italy Serie D	–	3-0	–	–	W
20/09	Bisceglie 1913 Italy Serie D	0-2	1-3	4	3	L
16/09	Ischia Italy Serie D	1-2	3-2	5	4	W
12/09	Manfredonia Italy Serie D	–	2-2	–	–	D
06/09	Ebolitana Italy Serie D	–	2-1	–	–	W
03/05	Ischia Italy Serie D	0-0	0-1	3	4	L
26/04	Monastir Kosmoto Italy Serie D	0-0	0-1	5	3	L
19/04	Virtus Flaminia Italy Serie D	1-1	1-1	6	2	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Martina vs Nocerina?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Martina win (45%). Probabilities: Martina 45%, draw 28%, Nocerina 27%.

How many goals are expected in Martina vs Nocerina?

The model expects 2.6 goals (Martina 1.49 · Nocerina 1.11), with a 52% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Martina vs Nocerina?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.