Football · Italy Serie D · 28/10, 14:30

Prediction: ASD CastrumFavara vs Reggina

Team pages: ASD CastrumFavara · Reggina

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.67Total

ASD CastrumFavara0.83

Reggina1.84

1X2

16% 23% 61%

ASD CastrumFavara Draw Reggina

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

0-2 12%

Recent form · 10 last

ASD CastrumFavara 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

WDWLDLLLWL

Reggina 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

WDWWWWWLDW

Head-to-head

ASD CastrumFavara 1–3 Reggina (4 last)

Reggina2-0ASD CastrumFavara
ASD CastrumFavara2-1Reggina
Reggina3-1ASD CastrumFavara
ASD CastrumFavara1-3Reggina

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · ASD CastrumFavara 1457 · Reggina 1582

	ASD CastrumFavara	Draw	Reggina
Our model	15%	24%	60%
Market	16%	23%	61%

Estimated total (ours) 2.67 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Reggina (rating 1457 vs 1582).
H2H favours Reggina: 3-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	ASD CastrumFavara	Reggina
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.3	2.2 / 0.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.2	1.4 / 0.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/80/0%	75/25/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 4	2.7 / 5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0.6	4.5 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

15.50

X3.90

21.45

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1)2.00

2 (-1)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.85

Under 2.51.95

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.65

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 08:02

	Bet365	Best now
1	6.50 → 5.50▼	Pinn 5.74
X	4.10 → 3.90▼	Pinn 4.16 ★
2	1.40 → 1.45▲	Bet365 1.45

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 12.8% Pinnacle margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
16:07 +9’	6.50	4.10	1.40
01:59 +3’	8.50▲	4.33▲	1.30▼
07:42 +20’	5.50▼	3.90▼	1.45▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
02:48 +16’	5.16	3.93	1.47
05:42 +20’	5.59▲	4.08▲	1.42▼
13:11 +16’	5.74▲	4.16▲	1.43▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 2.5

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · ASD CastrumFavara 1–0–3 Reggina

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Date	Home	Score	Away
04/01/26 Italy Serie D	Reggina	2-0 HT 2-0	ASD CastrumFavara
07/09/25 Italy Serie D	ASD CastrumFavara	2-1	Reggina
27/04/25 Italy Serie D	Reggina	3-1 HT 3-0	ASD CastrumFavara
15/01/25 Italy Serie D	ASD CastrumFavara	1-3	Reggina

Standings · Italy Serie D

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Sambiase	9	6	2	1	13	6	20
2	Reggina	8	6	1	1	18	3	19
3	Vibonese	9	5	3	1	20	8	18
4	Calcio Avola 1949	9	5	1	3	12	12	16
5	Milazzo	9	5	1	3	10	10	16
6	ASD Digiesse PraiaTortora	9	4	3	2	15	8	15
7	Igea Virtus	9	4	3	2	21	17	15
8	ASD Licata	8	4	2	2	10	13	14
9	SSD Athletic Club Palermo	8	3	2	3	11	10	11
10	Città di Gela	9	2	4	3	10	8	9
11	Nissa FC	9	2	3	4	11	13	9
12	Siracusa	8	4	3	1	12	6	8
13	Vigor Lamezia	9	2	2	5	10	17	8
14	Modica	8	2	1	5	7	11	7
15	ASD CastrumFavara	8	2	1	5	8	10	7
16	Trapani	9	3	1	5	5	12	5
17	ASD Ragusa	9	0	3	6	7	16	3
18	Enna Calcio	9	0	2	7	2	22	2

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	ASD CastrumFavara	Reggina
Trapani	0-1 L	0-1 L
Igea Virtus	3-2 W	2-0 W
Vigor Lamezia	0-2 L	3-0 W
Calcio Avola 1949	0-1 L	4-0 W
Modica	0-1 L	1-0 W
ASD Licata	1-1 D	5-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 4 L	5 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Reggina (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

ASD CastrumFavara

WDWLDLLLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Trapani Italy Serie D	0-0	0-1	6	3	L
11/10	Igea Virtus Italy Serie D	2-1	3-2	1	5	W
04/10	Vigor Lamezia Italy Serie D	0-0	0-2	6	6	L
27/09	Calcio Avola 1949 Italy Serie D	0-0	0-1	2	4	L
20/09	Modica Italy Serie D	–	0-1	–	–	L
16/09	ASD Licata Italy Serie D	–	1-1	–	–	D
13/09	Città di Gela Italy Serie D	–	1-2	–	–	L
06/09	Milazzo Italy Serie D	0-0	3-0	5	5	W
03/05	Enna Calcio Italy Serie D	–	2-2	–	–	D
26/04	ASD Paterno Italy Serie D	–	3-1	–	–	W

Reggina

WDWWWWWLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Nissa FC Italy Serie D	2-1	2-1	4	6	W
11/10	Vibonese Italy Serie D	1-0	1-1	7	5	D
04/10	Trapani Italy Serie D	–	0-1	–	–	L
27/09	Igea Virtus Italy Serie D	0-0	2-0	6	6	W
20/09	Vigor Lamezia Italy Serie D	3-0	3-0	6	3	W
16/09	Calcio Avola 1949 Italy Serie D	2-0	4-0	5	3	W
13/09	Modica Italy Serie D	1-0	1-0	6	8	W
06/09	ASD Licata Italy Serie D	–	5-0	–	–	W
17/05	Nissa FC Italy Serie D	0-0	0-0	2	7	D
03/05	Sambiase Italy Serie D	2-0	4-2	4	1	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in ASD CastrumFavara vs Reggina?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Reggina win (61%). Probabilities: ASD CastrumFavara 16%, draw 23%, Reggina 61%.

How many goals are expected in ASD CastrumFavara vs Reggina?

The model expects 2.67 goals (ASD CastrumFavara 0.83 · Reggina 1.84), with a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in ASD CastrumFavara vs Reggina?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-2.