Football · Italy Serie D · 25/10, 15:00

Prediction: Vigor Senigallia vs U.S. Ancona

Team pages: Vigor Senigallia · U.S. Ancona

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.63Total

Vigor Senigallia1.36

U.S. Ancona1.27

1X2

39% 27% 34%

Vigor Senigallia Draw U.S. Ancona

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Vigor Senigallia 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

LDWWWWDLLW

U.S. Ancona 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

DDWLWDDWWL

Head-to-head

Vigor Senigallia 1–2–3 U.S. Ancona (6 last)

Vigor Senigallia0-1U.S. Ancona
Vigor Senigallia0-1U.S. Ancona
U.S. Ancona0-0Vigor Senigallia
U.S. Ancona3-1Vigor Senigallia
Vigor Senigallia1-0U.S. Ancona
Vigor Senigallia2-2U.S. Ancona

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Vigor Senigallia 1508 · U.S. Ancona 1547

	Vigor Senigallia	Draw	U.S. Ancona
Our model	38%	29%	33%
Market	39%	26%	35%

Estimated total (ours) 2.63 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours U.S. Ancona: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Vigor Senigallia	U.S. Ancona
Goals for / against (FT)	2.2 / 1.8	1.3 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 1.4	0.8 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.4 / 3	2 / 5.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0.4	4.8 / 1

Odds Bet365

12.30

X3.40

22.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.77

2 (0)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.95

Under 2.751.85

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 3.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 04:05

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.30 → 2.30	Bet365 2.30
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	2.60 → 2.60	Bet365 2.60

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
03:56 +9’	2.30	3.40	2.60

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Vigor Senigallia 1–2–3 U.S. Ancona

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Date	Home	Score	Away
30/08/26 Italy Serie D Cup	Vigor Senigallia	0-1 HT 0-1	U.S. Ancona
29/03/26 Italy Serie D	Vigor Senigallia	0-1 HT 0-1	U.S. Ancona
16/11/25 Italy Serie D	U.S. Ancona	0-0 HT 0-0	Vigor Senigallia
26/01/25 Italy Serie D	U.S. Ancona	3-1	Vigor Senigallia
29/09/24 Italy Serie D	Vigor Senigallia	1-0 HT 0-0	U.S. Ancona
01/09/24 Italy Serie D Cup	Vigor Senigallia	2-2 HT 0-1	U.S. Ancona

Standings · Italy Serie D

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Reggina	8	6	1	1	18	3	19
2	Sambiase	8	5	2	1	12	6	17
3	Calcio Avola 1949	8	5	1	2	12	11	16
4	Vibonese	8	4	3	1	17	7	15
5	Igea Virtus	8	4	2	2	19	15	14
6	ASD Licata	7	4	2	1	10	9	14
7	Milazzo	8	4	1	3	9	10	13
8	ASD Digiesse PraiaTortora	8	3	3	2	14	8	12
9	Nissa FC	8	2	3	3	11	12	9
10	SSD Athletic Club Palermo	7	2	2	3	10	10	8
11	Vigor Lamezia	8	2	2	4	10	16	8
12	Siracusa	7	4	2	1	11	5	7
13	Modica	7	2	1	4	7	10	7
14	ASD CastrumFavara	8	2	1	5	8	10	7
15	Città di Gela	8	1	4	3	6	8	6
16	Trapani	8	3	0	5	4	11	4
17	ASD Ragusa	8	0	3	5	6	13	3
18	Enna Calcio	8	0	1	7	0	20	1

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Vigor Senigallia	U.S. Ancona
FC Forsempronese	0-0 D	2-3 L
Giulianova Calcio 1924	1-0 W	2-0 W
ASD Sporting Trestina	5-2 W	2-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 0 L	2 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Vigor Senigallia (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Vigor Senigallia

LDWWWWDLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Santegidiese Italy Serie D	–	2-0	–	–	W
11/10	ASD Atletico Ascoli Italy Serie D	0-2	1-2	1	5	L
04/10	Teramo Italy Serie D	2-3	4-6	1	4	L
27/09	FC Forsempronese Italy Serie D	0-0	0-0	4	8	D
20/09	Termoli Italy Serie D	–	2-1	–	–	W
16/09	Lanciano Italy Serie D	–	2-1	–	–	W
13/09	Giulianova Calcio 1924 Italy Serie D	1-0	1-0	3	1	W
06/09	ASD Sporting Trestina Italy Serie D	2-2	5-2	6	4	W
03/05	Unipomezia Italy Serie D	–	3-3	–	–	D
26/04	Chieti Italy Serie D	–	2-3	–	–	L

U.S. Ancona

DDWLWDDWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	FC Forsempronese Italy Serie D	1-2	2-3	4	4	L
11/10	Giulianova Calcio 1924 Italy Serie D	–	2-0	–	–	W
04/10	ASD Sporting Trestina Italy Serie D	–	2-0	–	–	W
27/09	ASD Angelana 1930 Italy Serie D	–	1-1	–	–	D
20/09	L'Aquila Italy Serie D	1-0	2-2	7	5	D
16/09	Maceratese Italy Serie D	1-0	1-0	5	11	W
12/09	ASD K-Sport Montecchio Italy Serie D	0-0	0-1	9	5	L
06/09	Notaresco Calcio 1924 Italy Serie D	1-1	2-1	3	4	W
03/05	Notaresco Calcio 1924 Italy Serie D	–	1-1	–	–	D
26/04	L'Aquila Italy Serie D	–	0-0	–	–	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Vigor Senigallia vs U.S. Ancona?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Vigor Senigallia win (39%). Probabilities: Vigor Senigallia 39%, draw 27%, U.S. Ancona 34%.

How many goals are expected in Vigor Senigallia vs U.S. Ancona?

The model expects 2.63 goals (Vigor Senigallia 1.36 · U.S. Ancona 1.27), with a 54% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Vigor Senigallia vs U.S. Ancona?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.