Football · Italy Serie D · 25/10, 16:00

Prediction: Virtus Francavilla vs Manfredonia

Team pages: Virtus Francavilla · Manfredonia

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.67Total

Virtus Francavilla1.68

Manfredonia0.99

1X2

53% 26% 21%

Virtus Francavilla Draw Manfredonia

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Virtus Francavilla 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

LDWWWWWLWL

Manfredonia 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

DWLDDWWWLW

Head-to-head

Virtus Francavilla 3–2–1 Manfredonia (6 last)

Virtus Francavilla2-0Manfredonia
Manfredonia2-5Virtus Francavilla
Manfredonia0-0Virtus Francavilla
Virtus Francavilla3-0Manfredonia
Virtus Francavilla0-0Manfredonia
Manfredonia2-0Virtus Francavilla

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Virtus Francavilla 1559 · Manfredonia 1529

	Virtus Francavilla	Draw	Manfredonia
Our model	52%	27%	21%
Market	53%	26%	21%

Estimated total (ours) 2.67 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Virtus Francavilla: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Virtus Francavilla	Manfredonia
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1.6	1.4 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	1.6 / 0.4	0.3 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	80/20/0%	33/33/33%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.3 / 5	2.7 / 4.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.6 / 0.2	3 / 0.7

Odds Bet365

11.70

X3.50

24.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.95

2 (+0.75)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.93

Under 2.51.88

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 2.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 06:34

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.70 → 1.70	Bet365 1.70
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
06:27 +8’	1.70	3.50	4.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Virtus Francavilla 3–2–1 Manfredonia

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
11/01/26 Italy Serie D	Virtus Francavilla	2-0 HT 1-0	Manfredonia
14/09/25 Italy Serie D	Manfredonia	2-5	Virtus Francavilla
05/01/25 Italy Serie D	Manfredonia	0-0	Virtus Francavilla
08/09/24 Italy Serie D	Virtus Francavilla	3-0	Manfredonia
06/03/16 Italy Serie D	Virtus Francavilla	0-0	Manfredonia
01/11/15 Italy Serie D	Manfredonia	2-0	Virtus Francavilla

Standings · Italy Serie D

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Reggina	8	6	1	1	18	3	19
2	Sambiase	8	5	2	1	12	6	17
3	Calcio Avola 1949	8	5	1	2	12	11	16
4	Vibonese	8	4	3	1	17	7	15
5	Igea Virtus	8	4	2	2	19	15	14
6	ASD Licata	7	4	2	1	10	9	14
7	Milazzo	8	4	1	3	9	10	13
8	ASD Digiesse PraiaTortora	8	3	3	2	14	8	12
9	Nissa FC	8	2	3	3	11	12	9
10	SSD Athletic Club Palermo	7	2	2	3	10	10	8
11	Vigor Lamezia	8	2	2	4	10	16	8
12	Siracusa	7	4	2	1	11	5	7
13	Modica	7	2	1	4	7	10	7
14	ASD CastrumFavara	8	2	1	5	8	10	7
15	Città di Gela	8	1	4	3	6	8	6
16	Trapani	8	3	0	5	4	11	4
17	ASD Ragusa	8	0	3	5	6	13	3
18	Enna Calcio	8	0	1	7	0	20	1

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Virtus Francavilla	Manfredonia
Fidelis Andria	1-2 L	1-1 D
Real Forio 2014	2-0 W	2-1 W
Gladiator	2-1 W	1-2 L
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 1 L	1 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Virtus Francavilla (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Virtus Francavilla

LDWWWWWLWL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Fidelis Andria Italy Serie D	–	1-2	–	–	L
11/10	Real Forio 2014 Italy Serie D	1-0	2-0	7	7	W
04/10	FBC Gravina Italy Serie D	–	2-4	–	–	L
27/09	Gladiator Italy Serie D	2-0	2-1	2	2	W
20/09	Martina Italy Serie D	–	2-1	–	–	W
16/09	Brindisi FC Italy Serie D	2-1	2-1	8	8	W
13/09	Melfi Italy Serie D	–	1-0	–	–	W
06/09	US Palmese 1914 Italy Serie D	2-0	3-1	3	2	W
03/05	Sarnese Italy Serie D	1-1	2-2	5	5	D
26/04	FC Pompei Italy Serie D	–	1-4	–	–	L

Manfredonia

DWLDDWWWLW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Ischia Italy Serie D	–	2-0	–	–	W
11/10	SS Turris Calcio Italy Serie D	0-1	0-3	4	2	L
04/10	Bisceglie 1913 Italy Serie D	–	1-0	–	–	W
27/09	Real Forio 2014 Italy Serie D	–	2-1	–	–	W
20/09	Ebolitana Italy Serie D	–	3-0	–	–	W
16/09	Fidelis Andria Italy Serie D	1-0	1-1	4	3	D
12/09	Nocerina Italy Serie D	–	2-2	–	–	D
06/09	Gladiator Italy Serie D	–	1-2	–	–	L
03/05	Real Acerrana Italy Serie D	–	2-1	–	–	W
26/04	Fidelis Andria Italy Serie D	0-0	0-0	6	6	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Virtus Francavilla vs Manfredonia?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Virtus Francavilla win (53%). Probabilities: Virtus Francavilla 53%, draw 26%, Manfredonia 21%.

How many goals are expected in Virtus Francavilla vs Manfredonia?

The model expects 2.67 goals (Virtus Francavilla 1.68 · Manfredonia 0.99), with a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Virtus Francavilla vs Manfredonia?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.