Football · Colombia Primera B · 24/10, 22:30

Prediction: Itagui Leones vs Orsomarso

Team pages: Itagui Leones · Orsomarso

Prediction summary

Expected goals

1.97Total

Itagui Leones1

Orsomarso0.97

1X2

36% 31% 33%

Itagui Leones Draw Orsomarso

Markets

Over 1.5 goals 60% Not both to score 52%

Most likely score

0-0 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Itagui Leones 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

LLLDLLDDWL

Orsomarso 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

LLLDLDLWDL

Head-to-head

Itagui Leones 2–3–1 Orsomarso (6 last)

Itagui Leones2-0Orsomarso
Orsomarso0-0Itagui Leones
Itagui Leones0-1Orsomarso
Orsomarso2-3Itagui Leones
Orsomarso1-1Itagui Leones
Itagui Leones1-1Orsomarso

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Itagui Leones 1444 · Orsomarso 1438

	Itagui Leones	Draw	Orsomarso
Our model	34%	34%	32%
Market	37%	29%	35%

Estimated total (ours) 1.97 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 67%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Itagui Leones: 2-3-1.
High corners: 11 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 10.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Itagui Leones	Orsomarso
Goals for / against (FT)	0.7 / 1.8	0.5 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 1.3	0.1 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/10/80%	0/50/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 4.6	2.7 / 6.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.7 / 0.2	6.1 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

12.55

X3.25

22.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.80

2 (0)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.95

Under 2.251.85

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.1

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 03:22

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.70 → 2.55▼	Pinn 2.57
X	3.10 → 3.25▲	Bet365 3.25
2	2.45 → 2.70▲	Pinn 2.80 ★

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 7% Pinnacle margin 7.7%

Time*	1	X	2
20:37 +7’	2.70	3.10	2.45
10:02 +13’	2.50▼	3.10	2.63▲
03:19 +2’	2.55▲	3.25▲	2.70▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
10:14	2.46	3.02	2.94
16:23 +4’	2.53▲	3.02	2.85▼
16:46 +37’	2.57▲	3.02	2.80▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Itagui Leones 2–3–1 Orsomarso

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Date	Home	Score	Away
12/05/26 Colombia Cup	Itagui Leones	2-0 HT 0-0	Orsomarso
18/04/26 Colombia Primera B	Orsomarso	0-0 HT 0-0	Itagui Leones
20/07/25 Colombia Primera B	Itagui Leones	0-1 HT 0-1	Orsomarso
10/02/25 Colombia Primera B	Orsomarso	2-3 HT 1-3	Itagui Leones
08/09/24 Colombia Primera B	Orsomarso	1-1 HT 0-1	Itagui Leones
04/04/24 Colombia Primera B	Itagui Leones	1-1 HT 0-0	Orsomarso

Standings · Colombia Primera B · Clausura

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Independiente Valle del Cauca	14	8	4	2	20	8	28
2	Real Soacha Cundinamarca	14	7	4	3	19	11	25
3	Tigres FC	14	6	6	2	16	7	24
4	Real Cartagena	14	5	5	4	25	17	20
5	Deportes Quindio	14	5	5	4	12	13	20
6	Real San Andres	14	4	7	3	16	19	19
7	Boca Juniors De Cali	14	5	3	6	18	19	18
8	Patriotas FC	14	5	3	6	17	21	18
9	Atletico Cali FC	14	5	3	6	16	20	18
10	Envigado FC	14	3	8	3	15	13	17
11	Union Magdalena	14	4	5	5	14	15	17
12	Bogota FC	14	4	5	5	10	13	17
13	Internacional FC de Palmira	14	4	4	6	10	15	16
14	Orsomarso	14	3	5	6	9	13	14
15	Itagui Leones	14	3	5	6	11	20	14
16	Barranquilla FC	14	3	4	7	17	21	13

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Itagui Leones	Orsomarso
Real San Andres	0-1 L	0-0 D
Internacional FC de Palmira	0-1 L	1-1 D
Boca Juniors De Cali	1-2 L	1-0 W
Envigado FC	1-1 D	0-0 D
Atletico Cali FC	0-3 L	0-2 L
Independiente Valle del Cauca	0-1 L	3-4 L
Real Cartagena	1-6 L	0-1 L
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 6 L	1 W 3 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Orsomarso (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Itagui Leones

LLLDLLDDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/10	Real San Andres Colombia Primera B	0-1	0-1	1	7	L
16/10	Patriotas FC Colombia Primera B	0-0	1-0	5	8	W
12/10	Union Magdalena Colombia Primera B	0-2	2-2	3	1	D
07/10	Barranquilla FC Colombia Primera B	1-0	1-1	4	3	D
28/09	Internacional FC de Palmira Colombia Primera B	0-1	0-1	2	4	L
19/09	Boca Juniors De Cali Colombia Primera B	0-1	1-2	5	3	L
12/09	Envigado FC Colombia Primera B	0-1	1-1	3	6	D
04/09	Atletico Cali FC Colombia Primera B	0-2	0-3	12	9	L
28/08	Independiente Valle del Cauca Colombia Primera B	0-1	0-1	2	3	L
25/08	Real Cartagena Colombia Primera B	1-4	1-6	9	5	L

Orsomarso

LLLDLDLWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/10	Bogota FC Colombia Primera B	0-0	0-1	2	10	L
16/10	Internacional FC de Palmira Colombia Primera B	1-1	1-1	4	5	D
12/10	Boca Juniors De Cali Colombia Primera B	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
06/10	Deportes Quindio Colombia Primera B	0-1	0-1	3	6	L
01/10	Envigado FC Colombia Primera B	0-0	0-0	9	7	D
28/09	Independiente Valle del Cauca Colombia Primera B	0-1	3-4	5	6	L
22/09	Real San Andres Colombia Primera B	0-0	0-0	5	5	D
15/09	Atletico Cali FC Colombia Primera B	0-1	0-2	11	5	L
11/09	Tigres FC Colombia Primera B	0-1	0-2	7	6	L
05/09	Real Cartagena Colombia Primera B	0-1	0-1	12	9	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Itagui Leones vs Orsomarso?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Itagui Leones win (36%). Probabilities: Itagui Leones 36%, draw 31%, Orsomarso 33%.

How many goals are expected in Itagui Leones vs Orsomarso?

The model expects 1.97 goals (Itagui Leones 1 · Orsomarso 0.97), with a 56% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Itagui Leones vs Orsomarso?

The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-0.