Football · El Salvador Liga de Ascenso · 15/10, 23:00

Prediction: AD Academia BP vs CD Vendaval

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Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.07Total

AD Academia BP2.28

CD Vendaval0.79

1X2

70% 19% 11%

AD Academia BP Draw CD Vendaval

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 63% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

2-0 12%

Recent form · 10 last

AD Academia BP 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

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CD Vendaval 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

AD Academia BP 1–0 CD Vendaval (1 last)

CD Vendaval0-1AD Academia BP

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · AD Academia BP 1471 · CD Vendaval 1437

	AD Academia BP	Draw	CD Vendaval
Our model	70%	19%	11%
Market	71%	18%	11%

Estimated total (ours) 3.07 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 50%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 10 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	AD Academia BP	CD Vendaval
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 2.2	0.8 / 2
Goals for / against (HT)	0 / 1	0 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/50/50%	0/33/67%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 5.5	2.7 / 4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5 / 0.5	5 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.27

X5.00

28.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.75)1.95

2 (+1.75)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 31.98

Under 31.82

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 3.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 22:52

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.27 → 1.27	Bet365 1.27
X	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00
2	8.00 → 8.00	Bet365 8.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
22:51 +1’	1.27	5.00	8.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · AD Academia BP 1–0–0 CD Vendaval

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Date	Home	Score	Away
10/09/26 El Salvador Segunda Division	CD Vendaval	0-1 HT 0-0	AD Academia BP

Standings · El Salvador Liga de Ascenso · Apertura, Center-West

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Once Municipal	13	8	2	3	30	19	26
2	AD Izalco	11	8	2	1	21	11	26
3	UES	12	7	3	2	22	15	24
4	CD Marte Soyapango	13	6	2	5	22	17	20
5	Once Lobos Chalchuapa	12	5	3	4	15	15	18
6	CD El Roble	10	5	2	3	11	7	17
7	Nacional FC de Sonsonate	13	4	3	6	12	12	15
8	AD Academia BP	12	4	3	5	19	26	15
9	CD Adet Aruba	13	3	5	5	12	13	14
10	AD Forfut	12	3	2	7	19	25	11
11	CD Fuerte Aguilares	13	1	5	7	13	20	8
12	CD Vendaval	12	2	2	8	10	26	8

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	AD Academia BP	CD Vendaval
UES	2-2 D	1-3 L
CD Marte Soyapango	0-3 L	2-1 W
Once Municipal	3-3 D	1-6 L
CD El Roble	0-3 L	2-1 W
CD Adet Aruba	1-5 L	0-1 L
Once Lobos Chalchuapa	1-2 L	1-1 D
AD Izalco	4-2 W	1-2 L
AD Forfut	2-1 W	0-1 L
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 4 L	2 W 1 D 5 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

AD Academia BP

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	UES El Salvador Liga de Ascenso	–	2-2	–	–	D
04/10	CD Marte Soyapango El Salvador Liga de Ascenso	–	0-3	–	–	L
30/09	Once Municipal El Salvador Liga de Ascenso	–	3-3	–	–	D
27/09	CD El Roble El Salvador Liga de Ascenso	–	0-3	–	–	L
24/09	CD Adet Aruba El Salvador Liga de Ascenso	–	1-5	–	–	L
20/09	Nacional FC de Sonsonate El Salvador Liga de Ascenso	–	1-1	–	–	D
17/09	Once Lobos Chalchuapa El Salvador Segunda Division	0-2	1-2	5	1	L
13/09	AD Izalco El Salvador Segunda Division	–	4-2	–	–	W
10/09	CD Vendaval El Salvador Segunda Division	0-0	1-0	6	10	W
06/09	AD Forfut El Salvador Segunda Division	–	2-1	–	–	W

CD Vendaval

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/10	CD Adet Aruba El Salvador Liga de Ascenso	–	0-1	–	–	L
02/10	Once Lobos Chalchuapa El Salvador Liga de Ascenso	–	1-1	–	–	D
29/09	AD Izalco El Salvador Liga de Ascenso	0-1	1-2	3	2	L
26/09	Once Municipal El Salvador Liga de Ascenso	–	1-6	–	–	L
22/09	AD Forfut El Salvador Segunda Division	–	0-1	–	–	L
19/09	UES El Salvador Segunda Division	–	1-3	–	–	L
15/09	CD Fuerte Aguilares El Salvador Segunda Division	0-1	0-3	5	4	L
12/09	CD Marte Soyapango El Salvador Segunda Division	–	2-1	–	–	W
10/09	AD Academia BP El Salvador Segunda Division	0-0	0-1	4	10	L
06/09	CD El Roble El Salvador Segunda Division	–	2-1	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in AD Academia BP vs CD Vendaval?

According to our model, the most likely result is a AD Academia BP win (70%). Probabilities: AD Academia BP 70%, draw 19%, CD Vendaval 11%.

How many goals are expected in AD Academia BP vs CD Vendaval?

The model expects 3.07 goals (AD Academia BP 2.28 · CD Vendaval 0.79), with a 52% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in AD Academia BP vs CD Vendaval?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.