Football · El Salvador Liga de Ascenso · 23/10, 23:00

Prediction: AD Izalco vs AD Academia BP

Team pages: AD Izalco · AD Academia BP

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.54Total

AD Izalco2.23

AD Academia BP1.31

1X2

57% 23% 20%

AD Izalco Draw AD Academia BP

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

2-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

AD Izalco 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

LWWDWWWDLL

AD Academia BP 1-4-5 (W-D-L)

WLDLLDLDDL

Head-to-head

AD Izalco 0–1 AD Academia BP (1 last)

AD Academia BP4-2AD Izalco

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · AD Izalco 1527 · AD Academia BP 1439

	AD Izalco	Draw	AD Academia BP
Our model	57%	22%	21%
Market	56%	24%	20%

Estimated total (ours) 3.54 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours AD Izalco (rating 1527 vs 1439).
Cards-heavy: 7.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	AD Izalco	AD Academia BP
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1.5	1.2 / 2.5
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0	0 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	67/33/0%	0/50/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	4 / 5.7	1 / 4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.3 / 0.7	4 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.60

X3.80

24.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.95

2 (+1)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 31.85

Under 31.95

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 3.5

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:10

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.60 → 1.60	Bet365 1.60
X	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80
2	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11%

Time*	1	X	2
12:07 +3’	1.60	3.80	4.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · AD Izalco 0–0–1 AD Academia BP

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
13/09/26 El Salvador Segunda Division	AD Academia BP	4-2	AD Izalco

Standings · El Salvador Liga de Ascenso · Apertura, Center-West

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Once Municipal	14	9	2	3	33	20	29
2	AD Izalco	13	8	2	3	21	15	26
3	UES	12	7	3	2	22	15	24
4	CD El Roble	12	7	2	3	14	7	23
5	CD Marte Soyapango	13	6	2	5	22	17	20
6	Nacional FC de Sonsonate	14	5	3	6	14	13	18
7	Once Lobos Chalchuapa	13	5	3	5	16	17	18
8	CD Adet Aruba	14	4	5	5	14	13	17
9	AD Academia BP	14	4	4	6	19	30	16
10	AD Forfut	13	4	2	7	23	25	14
11	CD Vendaval	14	2	3	9	10	27	9
12	CD Fuerte Aguilares	14	1	5	8	14	23	8

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	AD Izalco	AD Academia BP
CD El Roble	0-2 L	0-3 L
CD Adet Aruba	0-2 L	1-5 L
Nacional FC de Sonsonate	0-0 D	1-1 D
Once Municipal	3-1 W	3-3 D
CD Vendaval	2-1 W	0-0 D
AD Forfut	4-2 W	0-4 L
UES	2-2 D	2-2 D
CD Marte Soyapango	3-1 W	0-3 L
Record vs common	4 W 2 D 2 L	0 W 4 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: AD Izalco (6 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

AD Izalco

LWWDWWWDLL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
21/10	CD El Roble El Salvador Liga de Ascenso	0-0	0-2	2	5	L
17/10	CD Adet Aruba El Salvador Liga de Ascenso	–	0-2	–	–	L
11/10	Nacional FC de Sonsonate El Salvador Liga de Ascenso	–	0-0	–	–	D
02/10	Once Municipal El Salvador Liga de Ascenso	–	3-1	–	–	W
29/09	CD Vendaval El Salvador Liga de Ascenso	1-0	2-1	6	2	W
25/09	AD Forfut El Salvador Liga de Ascenso	–	4-2	–	–	W
22/09	UES El Salvador Segunda Division	–	2-2	–	–	D
18/09	CD Fuerte Aguilares El Salvador Segunda Division	2-0	2-0	9	5	W
16/09	CD Marte Soyapango El Salvador Segunda Division	–	3-1	–	–	W
13/09	AD Academia BP El Salvador Segunda Division	–	2-4	–	–	L

AD Academia BP

WLDLLDLDDL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	AD Forfut El Salvador Liga de Ascenso	–	0-4	–	–	L
15/10	CD Vendaval El Salvador Liga de Ascenso	0-0	0-0	3	7	D
11/10	UES El Salvador Liga de Ascenso	–	2-2	–	–	D
04/10	CD Marte Soyapango El Salvador Liga de Ascenso	–	0-3	–	–	L
30/09	Once Municipal El Salvador Liga de Ascenso	–	3-3	–	–	D
27/09	CD El Roble El Salvador Liga de Ascenso	–	0-3	–	–	L
24/09	CD Adet Aruba El Salvador Liga de Ascenso	–	1-5	–	–	L
20/09	Nacional FC de Sonsonate El Salvador Liga de Ascenso	–	1-1	–	–	D
17/09	Once Lobos Chalchuapa El Salvador Segunda Division	0-2	1-2	5	1	L
13/09	AD Izalco El Salvador Segunda Division	–	4-2	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in AD Izalco vs AD Academia BP?

According to our model, the most likely result is a AD Izalco win (57%). Probabilities: AD Izalco 57%, draw 23%, AD Academia BP 20%.

How many goals are expected in AD Izalco vs AD Academia BP?

The model expects 3.54 goals (AD Izalco 2.23 · AD Academia BP 1.31), with a 55% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in AD Izalco vs AD Academia BP?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.