Football · Colombia Primera B · 24/10, 22:30
Prediction: Barranquilla FC vs Real Cartagena
Team pages: Barranquilla FC · Real Cartagena
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.91Total
Barranquilla FC0.91
Real Cartagena2
1X2
Barranquilla FC
Draw
Real Cartagena
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 56%
Both teams to score 53%
Most likely score
0-2 11%
Recent form · 10 last
Barranquilla FC
3-2-5 (W-D-L)
Real Cartagena
3-4-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Barranquilla FC
2–2–2
Real Cartagena
(6 last)
- Real Cartagena2-1Barranquilla FC
- Barranquilla FC0-0Real Cartagena
- Real Cartagena1-3Barranquilla FC
- Barranquilla FC3-1Real Cartagena
- Real Cartagena0-0Barranquilla FC
- Real Cartagena3-0Barranquilla FC
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Barranquilla FC 1459 · Real Cartagena 1501
| Barranquilla FC | Draw | Real Cartagena | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 15% | 23% | 62% |
| Market | 16% | 22% | 62% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.91 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Real Cartagena (rating 1459 vs 1501).
- Cards-heavy: 9.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Barranquilla FC | Real Cartagena | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.3 / 1.5 | 1.7 / 1.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.8 | 0.9 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/40/40% | 40/30/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.8 / 5.6 | 1.8 / 4.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.6 / 0.2 | 5.3 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Barranquilla FC 2–2–2 Real Cartagena
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22/05/26 Colombia Primera B | Real Cartagena | 2-1 HT 0-0 | Barranquilla FC |
| 27/04/26 Colombia Primera B | Barranquilla FC | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Real Cartagena |
| 18/04/26 Colombia Primera B | Real Cartagena | 1-3 HT 1-1 | Barranquilla FC |
| 11/10/25 Colombia Primera B | Barranquilla FC | 3-1 HT 1-0 | Real Cartagena |
| 08/09/25 Colombia Primera B | Real Cartagena | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Barranquilla FC |
| 07/05/25 Colombia Primera B | Real Cartagena | 3-0 HT 1-0 | Barranquilla FC |
Standings · Colombia Primera B · Clausura
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Independiente Valle del Cauca | 14 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 20 | 8 | 28 |
| 2 | Real Soacha Cundinamarca | 14 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 19 | 11 | 25 |
| 3 | Tigres FC | 14 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 16 | 7 | 24 |
| 4 | Real Cartagena | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 25 | 17 | 20 |
| 5 | Deportes Quindio | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 12 | 13 | 20 |
| 6 | Real San Andres | 14 | 4 | 7 | 3 | 16 | 19 | 19 |
| 7 | Boca Juniors De Cali | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 18 | 19 | 18 |
| 8 | Patriotas FC | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 17 | 21 | 18 |
| 9 | Atletico Cali FC | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 16 | 20 | 18 |
| 10 | Envigado FC | 14 | 3 | 8 | 3 | 15 | 13 | 17 |
| 11 | Union Magdalena | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 14 | 15 | 17 |
| 12 | Bogota FC | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 10 | 13 | 17 |
| 13 | Internacional FC de Palmira | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 10 | 15 | 16 |
| 14 | Orsomarso | 14 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 9 | 13 | 14 |
| 15 | Itagui Leones | 14 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 11 | 20 | 14 |
| 16 | Barranquilla FC | 14 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 17 | 21 | 13 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Barranquilla FC | Real Cartagena |
|---|---|---|
| Envigado FC | 0-1 L | 0-0 D |
| Tigres FC | 2-2 D | 0-3 L |
| Deportes Quindio | 4-1 W | 1-1 D |
| Itagui Leones | 1-1 D | 6-1 W |
| Patriotas FC | 1-3 L | 3-0 W |
| Union Magdalena | 2-1 W | 1-1 D |
| Boca Juniors De Cali | 2-1 W | 2-3 L |
| Record vs common | 3 W 2 D 2 L | 2 W 3 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Barranquilla FC (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Barranquilla FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/10 | Envigado FC Colombia Primera B |
0-1 | 0-1 | 7 | 9 | L |
| 15/10 | Tigres FC Colombia Primera B |
2-0 | 2-2 | 7 | 6 | D |
| 12/10 | Deportes Quindio Colombia Primera B |
1-1 | 4-1 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 07/10 | Itagui Leones Colombia Primera B |
0-1 | 1-1 | 8 | 3 | D |
| 28/09 | Real Soacha Cundinamarca Colombia Primera B |
0-1 | 0-1 | 9 | 6 | L |
| 21/09 | Bogota FC Colombia Primera B |
1-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 16/09 | Independiente Valle del Cauca Colombia Primera B |
0-0 | 0-2 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 11/09 | Patriotas FC Colombia Primera B |
0-2 | 1-3 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 06/09 | Union Magdalena Colombia Primera B |
1-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 02/09 | Boca Juniors De Cali Colombia Primera B |
1-1 | 2-1 | 7 | 7 | W |
Real Cartagena
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/10 | Patriotas FC Colombia Primera B |
1-0 | 3-0 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 16/10 | Deportes Quindio Colombia Primera B |
0-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 8 | D |
| 08/10 | Atletico Cali FC Colombia Primera B |
2-1 | 2-2 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 04/10 | Boca Juniors De Cali Colombia Primera B |
0-2 | 2-3 | 10 | 5 | L |
| 30/09 | Union Magdalena Colombia Primera B |
1-1 | 1-1 | 1 | 3 | D |
| 22/09 | Envigado FC Colombia Primera B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 9 | D |
| 13/09 | Internacional FC de Palmira Colombia Primera B |
0-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 05/09 | Orsomarso Colombia Primera B |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 9 | W |
| 30/08 | Tigres FC Colombia Primera B |
0-1 | 0-3 | 9 | 4 | L |
| 25/08 | Itagui Leones Colombia Primera B |
4-1 | 6-1 | 3 | 5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Barranquilla FC vs Real Cartagena?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Real Cartagena win (62%). Probabilities: Barranquilla FC 15%, draw 22%, Real Cartagena 62%.
How many goals are expected in Barranquilla FC vs Real Cartagena?
The model expects 2.91 goals (Barranquilla FC 0.91 · Real Cartagena 2), with a 52% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Barranquilla FC vs Real Cartagena?
The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 0-2.