Football · Colombia Primera A · 27/10, 02:05
Prediction: Independiente Santa Fe vs Atletico Bucaramanga
Team pages: Independiente Santa Fe · Atletico Bucaramanga
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.19Total
Independiente Santa Fe1.39
Atletico Bucaramanga0.8
1X2
Independiente Santa Fe
Draw
Atletico Bucaramanga
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 63%
Not both to score 51%
Most likely score
1-0 14%
Recent form · 10 last
Independiente Santa Fe
6-2-2 (W-D-L)
Atletico Bucaramanga
4-5-1 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Independiente Santa Fe
1–2–3
Atletico Bucaramanga
(6 last)
- Atletico Bucaramanga1-2Independiente Santa Fe
- Independiente Santa Fe0-0Atletico Bucaramanga
- Atletico Bucaramanga1-0Independiente Santa Fe
- Atletico Bucaramanga2-1Independiente Santa Fe
- Independiente Santa Fe1-1Atletico Bucaramanga
- Atletico Bucaramanga3-1Independiente Santa Fe
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Independiente Santa Fe 1533 · Atletico Bucaramanga 1534
| Independiente Santa Fe | Draw | Atletico Bucaramanga | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 49% | 30% | 20% |
| Market | 51% | 28% | 22% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.19 goals · Bet365 line 2.25
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 61%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Atletico Bucaramanga: 3-2-1.
- Cards-heavy: 10.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Independiente Santa Fe | Atletico Bucaramanga | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.6 / 1 | 1.6 / 0.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.3 | 1.1 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/60/10% | 60/40/0% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.3 / 5.1 | 1.3 / 1.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.5 / 0.4 | 4.7 / 0.5 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Independiente Santa Fe 1–2–3 Atletico Bucaramanga
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28/03/26 Colombia Primera A | Atletico Bucaramanga | 1-2 HT 1-1 | Independiente Santa Fe |
| 09/12/25 Colombia Primera A | Independiente Santa Fe | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Atletico Bucaramanga |
| 20/11/25 Colombia Primera A | Atletico Bucaramanga | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Independiente Santa Fe |
| 10/08/25 Colombia Primera A | Atletico Bucaramanga | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Independiente Santa Fe |
| 20/03/25 Colombia Primera A | Independiente Santa Fe | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Atletico Bucaramanga |
| 29/08/24 Colombia Cup | Atletico Bucaramanga | 3-1 HT 2-0 | Independiente Santa Fe |
Standings · Colombia Primera A · Finalizacion
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | America de Cali | 15 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 29 | 11 | 31 |
| 2 | Atletico Nacional Medellin | 14 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 28 | 12 | 29 |
| 3 | Deportivo Cali | 15 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 23 | 9 | 29 |
| 4 | Millonarios | 16 | 6 | 8 | 2 | 24 | 14 | 26 |
| 5 | Atletico Bucaramanga | 14 | 6 | 7 | 1 | 22 | 13 | 25 |
| 6 | Independiente Santa Fe | 14 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 21 | 14 | 25 |
| 7 | Independiente Medellin | 14 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 21 | 19 | 23 |
| 8 | Once Caldas | 16 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 20 | 18 | 21 |
| 9 | Cucuta Deportivo | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 18 | 22 | 21 |
| 10 | Deportes Tolima | 15 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 18 | 18 | 20 |
| 11 | Aguilas Doradas | 15 | 4 | 7 | 4 | 19 | 20 | 19 |
| 12 | Internacional de Bogota | 15 | 3 | 8 | 4 | 18 | 21 | 17 |
| 13 | Llaneros | 15 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 16 | 20 | 17 |
| 14 | Junior | 15 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 20 | 23 | 15 |
| 15 | Alianza | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 15 | 26 | 15 |
| 16 | Boyaca Chico | 15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 12 | 25 | 15 |
| 17 | Deportivo Pereira | 15 | 2 | 8 | 5 | 11 | 19 | 14 |
| 18 | Fortaleza CEIF | 14 | 1 | 8 | 5 | 15 | 21 | 11 |
| 19 | Jaguares de Cordoba | 14 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 16 | 28 | 10 |
| 20 | Deportivo Pasto | 14 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 9 | 22 | 9 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Independiente Santa Fe | Atletico Bucaramanga |
|---|---|---|
| Independiente Medellin | 1-0 W | 2-2 D |
| Deportivo Pereira | 2-1 W | 3-1 W |
| Deportivo Cali | 0-1 L | 1-1 D |
| Deportes Tolima | 1-0 W | 0-0 D |
| Junior | 1-1 D | 3-1 W |
| Record vs common | 3 W 1 D 1 L | 2 W 3 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: Atletico Bucaramanga (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Independiente Santa Fe
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/10 | Jaguares de Cordoba Colombia Primera A |
1-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 19/10 | Llaneros Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 06/10 | Independiente Medellin Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 9 | W |
| 29/09 | Deportivo Pereira Colombia Primera A |
1-1 | 2-1 | 2 | 11 | W |
| 23/09 | Deportivo Cali Colombia Primera A |
0-1 | 0-1 | 9 | 5 | L |
| 19/09 | Alianza Colombia Primera A |
2-0 | 4-1 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 12/09 | Deportes Tolima Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 06/09 | Fortaleza CEIF Colombia Primera A |
2-0 | 2-2 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 03/09 | Millonarios Colombia Primera A |
1-1 | 3-2 | 7 | 8 | W |
| 30/08 | Junior Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 4 | D |
Atletico Bucaramanga
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/10 | Boyaca Chico Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 18/10 | America de Cali Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 14/10 | Aguilas Doradas Colombia Primera A |
1-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 6 | D |
| 05/10 | Junior Colombia Primera A |
3-1 | 3-1 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 26/09 | Once Caldas Colombia Primera A |
2-0 | 3-1 | 1 | 5 | W |
| 20/09 | Internacional de Bogota Colombia Primera A |
1-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 18/09 | Independiente Medellin Colombia Primera A |
2-1 | 2-2 | 1 | 6 | D |
| 13/09 | Deportivo Pereira Colombia Primera A |
2-1 | 3-1 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 31/08 | Deportivo Cali Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 8 | D |
| 22/08 | Deportes Tolima Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 7 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Independiente Santa Fe vs Atletico Bucaramanga?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Independiente Santa Fe win (50%). Probabilities: Independiente Santa Fe 50%, draw 29%, Atletico Bucaramanga 21%.
How many goals are expected in Independiente Santa Fe vs Atletico Bucaramanga?
The model expects 2.19 goals (Independiente Santa Fe 1.39 · Atletico Bucaramanga 0.8), with a 52% chance of under 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Independiente Santa Fe vs Atletico Bucaramanga?
The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.