Football · Colombia Primera A · 26/10, 02:15

Prediction: Deportes Tolima vs Deportivo Pasto

Team pages: Deportes Tolima · Deportivo Pasto

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.14Total

Deportes Tolima1.62

Deportivo Pasto0.52

1X2

64% 24% 12%

Deportes Tolima Draw Deportivo Pasto

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 58% Not both to score 55%

Most likely score

1-0 18%

Recent form · 10 last

Deportes Tolima 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

WWLLDDDDLL

Deportivo Pasto 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

LLDLDWWLDL

Head-to-head

Deportes Tolima 3–1–2 Deportivo Pasto (6 last)

Deportivo Pasto0-2Deportes Tolima
Deportes Tolima1-0Deportivo Pasto
Deportivo Pasto1-0Deportes Tolima
Deportivo Pasto3-2Deportes Tolima
Deportes Tolima2-0Deportivo Pasto
Deportivo Pasto1-1Deportes Tolima

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Deportes Tolima 1485 · Deportivo Pasto 1422

	Deportes Tolima	Draw	Deportivo Pasto
Our model	63%	26%	11%
Market	65%	22%	13%

Estimated total (ours) 2.14 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · -0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Deportes Tolima (rating 1485 vs 1422).
H2H favours Deportes Tolima: 3-1-2.
High corners: 10.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 10.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Deportes Tolima	Deportivo Pasto
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1.2	0.6 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.5	0.3 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/70/20%	0/60/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 6.1	1.9 / 4.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.2 / 0.3	5.4 / 1.1

Odds Bet365

11.44

X4.20

27.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.80

2 (+1)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.00

Under 2.51.80

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 2

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 07:19

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.42 → 1.44▲	Pinn 1.47 ★
X	4.10 → 4.20▲	Bet365 4.20
2	7.50 → 7.50	Bet365 7.50

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 6.4% Pinnacle margin 7.1%

Time*	1	X	2
15:33 +8’	1.42	4.10	7.50
07:13 +6’	1.44▲	4.20▲	7.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
03:11 +5’	1.47	3.96	6.81
04:16 +3’	1.48▲	4.02▲	6.98▲
14:20 +14’	1.47▼	4.03▲	6.99▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Deportes Tolima 3–1–2 Deportivo Pasto

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/05/26 Colombia Primera A	Deportivo Pasto	0-2 HT 0-1	Deportes Tolima
10/05/26 Colombia Primera A	Deportes Tolima	1-0 HT 1-0	Deportivo Pasto
11/04/26 Colombia Primera A	Deportivo Pasto	1-0 HT 1-0	Deportes Tolima
12/07/25 Colombia Primera A	Deportivo Pasto	3-2 HT 2-0	Deportes Tolima
28/01/25 Colombia Primera A	Deportes Tolima	2-0 HT 0-0	Deportivo Pasto
03/10/24 Colombia Cup	Deportivo Pasto	1-1 HT 1-1	Deportes Tolima

Standings · Colombia Primera A · Finalizacion

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Deportivo Cali	15	8	5	2	23	9	29
2	America de Cali	14	8	4	2	26	10	28
3	Atletico Nacional Medellin	13	8	2	3	25	12	26
4	Millonarios	16	6	8	2	24	14	26
5	Atletico Bucaramanga	13	6	7	0	22	12	25
6	Independiente Santa Fe	14	7	4	3	21	14	25
7	Independiente Medellin	14	7	2	5	21	19	23
8	Cucuta Deportivo	14	6	3	5	17	19	21
9	Once Caldas	15	5	5	5	19	17	20
10	Deportes Tolima	15	5	5	5	18	18	20
11	Aguilas Doradas	14	4	7	3	19	19	19
12	Internacional de Bogota	15	3	8	4	18	21	17
13	Llaneros	15	5	2	8	16	20	17
14	Alianza	14	4	3	7	15	26	15
15	Deportivo Pereira	14	2	7	5	10	18	13
16	Junior	14	2	6	6	19	23	12
17	Boyaca Chico	14	3	3	8	11	25	12
18	Fortaleza CEIF	14	1	8	5	15	21	11
19	Jaguares de Cordoba	14	2	4	8	16	28	10
20	Deportivo Pasto	13	2	3	8	9	19	9

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Deportes Tolima	Deportivo Pasto
Boyaca Chico	0-0 D	0-3 L
Fortaleza CEIF	2-2 D	0-0 D
America de Cali	1-1 D	1-0 W
Once Caldas	0-1 L	1-0 W
Llaneros	2-1 W	0-1 L
Cucuta Deportivo	2-1 W	2-2 D
Record vs common	2 W 3 D 1 L	2 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Deportes Tolima (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Deportes Tolima

WWLLDDDDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Aguilas Doradas Colombia Primera A	1-1	1-2	3	6	L
11/10	Jaguares de Cordoba Colombia Primera A	0-1	2-3	8	6	L
09/10	Atletico Nacional Medellin Colombia Primera A	0-0	0-0	6	2	D
03/10	Boyaca Chico Colombia Primera A	0-0	0-0	10	3	D
28/09	Fortaleza CEIF Colombia Primera A	1-0	2-2	0	11	D
21/09	America de Cali Colombia Primera A	1-1	1-1	9	7	D
17/09	Once Caldas Colombia Primera A	0-1	0-1	6	6	L
12/09	Independiente Santa Fe Colombia Primera A	0-0	0-1	5	5	L
08/09	Llaneros Colombia Primera A	1-1	2-1	8	2	W
01/09	Cucuta Deportivo Colombia Primera A	0-0	2-1	6	7	W

Deportivo Pasto

LLDLDWWLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/10	Alianza Colombia Primera A	0-1	0-1	4	4	L
04/10	Fortaleza CEIF Colombia Primera A	0-0	0-0	3	4	D
26/09	Boyaca Chico Colombia Primera A	0-0	0-3	4	1	L
20/09	Once Caldas Colombia Primera A	0-0	1-0	5	7	W
15/09	America de Cali Colombia Primera A	0-0	1-0	3	8	W
06/09	Cucuta Deportivo Colombia Primera A	1-2	2-2	5	13	D
01/09	Deportivo Pereira Colombia Primera A	1-2	1-2	8	6	L
28/08	Internacional de Bogota Colombia Primera A	1-1	1-1	2	3	D
23/08	Llaneros Colombia Primera A	0-0	0-1	5	11	L
09/08	Deportivo Cali Colombia Primera A	0-1	0-2	6	8	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Deportes Tolima vs Deportivo Pasto?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Deportes Tolima win (64%). Probabilities: Deportes Tolima 64%, draw 24%, Deportivo Pasto 12%.

How many goals are expected in Deportes Tolima vs Deportivo Pasto?

The model expects 2.14 goals (Deportes Tolima 1.62 · Deportivo Pasto 0.52), with a 58% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Deportes Tolima vs Deportivo Pasto?

The model gives a 55% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.