Football · England League 2 · 17/10, 16:00

Prediction: Oldham vs Cheltenham

Team pages: Oldham · Cheltenham

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.86Total

Oldham1.74

Cheltenham1.12

1X2

51% 26% 23%

Oldham Draw Cheltenham

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Oldham 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

WWLWDLLLLD

Cheltenham 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WLDWDWDWLL

Head-to-head

Oldham 3–1–2 Cheltenham (6 last)

Oldham2-1Cheltenham
Cheltenham0-3Oldham
Cheltenham2-0Oldham
Oldham2-1Cheltenham
Cheltenham3-0Oldham
Oldham1-1Cheltenham

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Oldham 1481 · Cheltenham 1485

	Oldham	Draw	Cheltenham
Our model	51%	26%	23%
Market	51%	26%	23%

Estimated total (ours) 2.86 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Oldham: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 7.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Oldham	Cheltenham
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.3	1.6 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.5	0.8 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/20/40%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 5.6	2 / 4.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.5 / 0.1	4.4 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.80

X3.50

23.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.85

2 (+0.5)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.85

Under 2.52.00

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 2.85

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 01:22

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.80 → 1.80	Bet365 1.80
X	3.50 → 3.50	Pinn 4.01 ★
2	3.90 → 3.90	Pinn 4.35

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.8% Pinnacle margin 6.6%

Time*	1	X	2
01:19 +3’	1.80	3.50	3.90

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
22:35 +166’	1.69	4.05	4.35
07:03 +30’	1.70▲	4.02▼	4.35
20:08 +30’	1.70	4.01▼	4.35

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Oldham 3–1–2 Cheltenham

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/01/26 England League 2	Oldham	2-1 HT 1-1	Cheltenham
20/09/25 England League 2	Cheltenham	0-3 HT 0-1	Oldham
26/01/21 England League 2	Cheltenham	2-0 HT 0-0	Oldham
03/11/20 England League 2	Oldham	2-1 HT 1-1	Cheltenham
04/01/20 England League 2	Cheltenham	3-0 HT 1-0	Oldham
05/10/19 England League 2	Oldham	1-1 HT 1-0	Cheltenham

Standings · England League 2

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Salford City	10	6	1	3	15	10	19
2	Barnet	8	5	3	0	20	11	18
3	Crewe	10	4	6	0	12	7	18
4	Gillingham	10	4	4	2	15	10	16
5	York	9	4	3	2	17	11	15
6	Walsall	9	3	6	0	12	6	15
7	Chesterfield	10	4	3	3	17	14	15
8	Cheltenham	10	4	3	3	16	16	15
9	Bristol Rovers	10	5	0	5	15	17	15
10	Rochdale	10	4	2	4	11	12	14
11	Grimsby	10	3	4	3	13	11	13
12	Newport County	10	3	4	3	13	12	13
13	Tranmere	10	2	6	2	13	13	12
14	Exeter	10	3	3	4	6	6	12
15	Accrington Stanley	10	2	5	3	13	14	11
16	Fleetwood Town	10	2	5	3	10	11	11
17	Swindon	10	3	2	5	9	14	11
18	Shrewsbury	10	3	2	5	9	15	11
19	Colchester	9	2	4	3	10	13	10
20	Rotherham	10	2	4	4	12	16	10
21	Oldham	9	2	2	5	9	13	8
22	Port Vale	8	2	2	4	4	9	8
23	Northampton	8	1	4	3	4	7	7
24	Crawley Town	8	1	2	5	8	15	5

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Oldham	Cheltenham
Accrington Stanley	0-0 D	0-2 L
Salford City	1-4 L	0-2 L
Chesterfield	1-2 L	2-1 W
Swindon	3-0 W	1-2 L
Colchester	1-2 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 3 L	1 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Cheltenham (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Oldham

WWLWDLLLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Accrington Stanley England League 2	0-0	0-0	2	5	D
26/09	Salford City England League 2	1-2	1-4	11	2	L
19/09	Rochdale England League 2	0-1	0-2	6	0	L
12/09	Chesterfield England League 2	0-1	1-2	1	5	L
05/09	Tranmere England League 2	0-1	0-2	10	5	L
01/09	Fleetwood Town England League 2	1-0	1-1	4	1	D
29/08	Swindon England League 2	1-0	3-0	14	3	W
22/08	Colchester England League 2	1-0	1-2	2	8	L
15/08	Port Vale England League 2	0-0	2-0	1	6	W
02/05	Accrington Stanley England League 2	1-0	3-0	5	1	W

Cheltenham

WLDWDWDWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Salford City England League 2	0-0	0-2	4	10	L
03/10	Accrington Stanley England League 2	0-0	0-2	2	6	L
26/09	Chesterfield England League 2	2-0	2-1	2	4	W
19/09	Colchester England League 2	0-0	1-1	9	8	D
12/09	Crawley Town England League 2	2-1	3-1	3	6	W
05/09	Grimsby England League 2	2-0	2-2	3	2	D
01/09	York England League 2	1-1	3-2	4	1	W
29/08	Barnet England League 2	0-1	2-2	4	4	D
22/08	Swindon England League 2	0-1	1-2	5	2	L
15/08	Rotherham England League 2	1-0	2-1	5	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Oldham vs Cheltenham?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Oldham win (51%). Probabilities: Oldham 51%, draw 26%, Cheltenham 23%.

How many goals are expected in Oldham vs Cheltenham?

The model expects 2.86 goals (Oldham 1.74 · Cheltenham 1.12), with a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Oldham vs Cheltenham?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.