Football · Thailand Division 3 · 11/10, 10:30

Prediction: Surin City FC vs Khonkaen

Team pages: Surin City FC · Khonkaen

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.11Total

Surin City FC0.84

Khonkaen1.26

1X2

25% 29% 46%

Surin City FC Draw Khonkaen

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 57% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Surin City FC 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LWWWLDDWLL

Khonkaen 6-4-0 (W-D-L)

DWDWWWWDWD

Head-to-head

Surin City FC 1–3–2 Khonkaen (6 last)

Khonkaen0-0Surin City FC
Surin City FC0-0Khonkaen
Khonkaen1-0Surin City FC
Khonkaen0-0Surin City FC
Surin City FC0-1Khonkaen
Surin City FC3-2Khonkaen

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Surin City FC 1491 · Khonkaen 1598

	Surin City FC	Draw	Khonkaen
Our model	23%	32%	45%
Market	26%	27%	47%

Estimated total (ours) 2.11 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · -0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 69%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Khonkaen (rating 1491 vs 1598).
H2H favours Khonkaen: 2-3-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Surin City FC	Khonkaen
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1	1.7 / 0.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.3	0.6 / 0.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	40/60/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 4.1	1.5 / 5.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.6 / 0.3	3.2 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

13.50

X3.30

21.91

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.82

2 (-0.5)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.95

Under 2.51.85

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 20:19

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
X	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30
2	1.91 → 1.91	Bet365 1.91

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
20:16 +4’	3.50	3.30	1.91

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Surin City FC 1–3–2 Khonkaen

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Date	Home	Score	Away
01/02/26 Thailand Division 3	Khonkaen	0-0 HT 0-0	Surin City FC
11/10/25 Thailand Division 3	Surin City FC	0-0 HT 0-0	Khonkaen
17/11/24 Thailand Division 3	Khonkaen	1-0 HT 0-0	Surin City FC
11/02/24 Thailand Division 3	Khonkaen	0-0 HT 0-0	Surin City FC
02/12/23 Thailand Division 3	Surin City FC	0-1 HT 0-0	Khonkaen
11/03/23 Thailand Division 3	Surin City FC	3-2 HT 1-1	Khonkaen

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Surin City FC	Khonkaen
Esan Fighter FC	2-3 L	2-0 W
Korat City FC	0-3 L	1-0 W
Yasothon FC	2-0 W	2-1 W
Udon Banjan United	4-1 W	1-0 W
Surin Khongcheemoon FC	1-0 W	6-0 W
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 2 L	5 W 0 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Khonkaen (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Surin City FC

LWWWLDDWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/10	Esan Fighter FC Thailand Division 3	0-1	2-3	5	3	L
26/09	Korat City FC Thailand Division 3	0-1	0-3	9	5	L
08/03	Korat City FC Thailand Division 3	2-0	3-0	4	4	W
11/02	EUMT FC Thailand Division 3	0-0	0-0	2	5	D
01/02	Khonkaen Thailand Division 3	0-0	0-0	7	4	D
17/01	Muang Loei United Thailand Division 3	1-1	1-2	6	4	L
10/01	Yasothon FC Thailand Division 3	1-0	2-0	2	8	W
23/11	Udon Banjan United Thailand Division 3	1-0	4-1	2	3	W
09/11	Surin Khongcheemoon FC Thailand Division 3	0-0	1-0	2	7	W
19/10	EUMT FC Thailand Division 3	0-0	0-1	2	6	L

Khonkaen

DWDWWWWDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/10	Ubon Krua Napat FC Thailand Division 3	0-0	1-1	9	4	D
26/09	Esan Fighter FC Thailand Division 3	1-0	2-0	6	3	W
20/09	Udon United Thailand Division 3	1-1	2-2	7	5	D
08/03	Yasothon FC Thailand Division 3	1-0	2-1	6	1	W
22/02	Udon Banjan United Thailand Division 3	0-0	1-0	5	2	W
15/02	Ubon Krua Napat FC Thailand Division 3	0-0	1-0	2	5	W
10/02	Surin Khongcheemoon FC Thailand Division 3	2-0	6-0	3	3	W
01/02	Surin City FC Thailand Division 3	0-0	0-0	7	4	D
26/01	Korat City FC Thailand Division 3	0-0	1-0	6	3	W
22/11	Roi-Et PB United Thailand Division 3	1-0	1-1	0	3	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Surin City FC vs Khonkaen?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Khonkaen win (46%). Probabilities: Surin City FC 25%, draw 29%, Khonkaen 46%.

How many goals are expected in Surin City FC vs Khonkaen?

The model expects 2.11 goals (Surin City FC 0.84 · Khonkaen 1.26), with a 57% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Surin City FC vs Khonkaen?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.