Football · Thailand Division 3 · 18/10, 10:30

Prediction: Samut Songkhram City vs Thap Luang United

Team pages: Samut Songkhram City · Thap Luang United

Prediction summary

Expected goals

1.83Total

Samut Songkhram City0.76

Thap Luang United1.07

1X2

26% 31% 43%

Samut Songkhram City Draw Thap Luang United

Markets

Over 1.5 goals 56% Not both to score 54%

Most likely score

0-0 17%

Recent form · 10 last

Samut Songkhram City 0-5-5 (W-D-L)

LDDLDLLDDL

Thap Luang United 6-4-0 (W-D-L)

WDDWWWWDDW

Head-to-head

Samut Songkhram City 1–4 Thap Luang United (5 last)

Thap Luang United2-1Samut Songkhram City
Thap Luang United2-0Samut Songkhram City
Thap Luang United1-0Samut Songkhram City
Samut Songkhram City2-0Thap Luang United
Thap Luang United3-0Samut Songkhram City

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Samut Songkhram City 1418 · Thap Luang United 1586

	Samut Songkhram City	Draw	Thap Luang United
Our model	24%	35%	41%
Market	28%	27%	45%

Estimated total (ours) 1.83 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · -0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 68%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Thap Luang United (rating 1418 vs 1586).
H2H favours Thap Luang United: 4-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 6.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Samut Songkhram City	Thap Luang United
Goals for / against (FT)	0.7 / 1.6	1.2 / 0.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.8	0.6 / 0.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/60/40%	50/40/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 3.6	1.1 / 2.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.1 / 0	3 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

13.20

X3.25

22.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)2.00

2 (-0.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.95

Under 2.251.85

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 1.85

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:41

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20
X	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25
2	2.00 → 2.00	Bet365 2.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12%

Time*	1	X	2
15:25 +16’	3.20	3.25	2.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Samut Songkhram City 1–0–4 Thap Luang United

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Date	Home	Score	Away
12/09/26 Thailand League Cup	Thap Luang United	2-1 HT 1-1	Samut Songkhram City
11/01/26 Thailand Division 3	Thap Luang United	2-0 HT 1-0	Samut Songkhram City
30/11/25 Thailand Division 3 Cup	Thap Luang United	1-0 HT 1-0	Samut Songkhram City
19/01/25 Thailand Division 3	Samut Songkhram City	2-0 HT 0-0	Thap Luang United
08/12/24 Thailand Division 3 Cup	Thap Luang United	3-0 HT 1-0	Samut Songkhram City

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Samut Songkhram City	Thap Luang United
Thonburi United FC	1-1 D	1-0 W
Royal Thai Army	0-0 D	0-0 D
Hua Hin City	0-2 L	1-1 D
Nonthaburi United	0-0 D	1-0 W
Samut Sakhon	0-3 L	2-0 W
VRN Muangnont FC	0-0 D	0-0 D
Record vs common	0 W 4 D 2 L	3 W 3 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Thap Luang United (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Samut Songkhram City

LDDLDLLDDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Suphanburi FC Thailand Division 3	1-1	1-2	2	5	L
04/10	Thonburi United FC Thailand Division 3	0-1	1-1	4	3	D
19/09	Royal Thai Army Thailand Division 3	0-0	0-0	5	2	D
15/03	Raj Pracha Thailand Division 3	1-2	2-4	1	2	L
08/03	Hua Hin City Thailand Division 3	0-2	0-2	5	3	L
01/03	Nonthaburi United Thailand Division 3	0-0	0-0	3	2	D
15/02	Samut Sakhon Thailand Division 3	0-0	0-3	3	6	L
10/02	VRN Muangnont FC Thailand Division 3	0-0	0-0	2	5	D
31/01	Royal Thai Army Thailand Division 3	1-1	2-2	5	0	D
24/01	Suphanburi FC Thailand Division 3	0-1	1-2	6	3	L

Thap Luang United

WDDWWWWDDW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Samut Sakhon Thailand Division 3	1-0	2-0	5	2	W
03/10	Bangkok FC Thailand Division 3	0-0	0-0	2	6	D
20/09	VRN Muangnont FC Thailand Division 3	0-0	0-0	4	6	D
22/03	Nonthaburi United Thailand Division 3	1-0	1-0	3	2	W
07/03	Thonburi United FC Thailand Division 3	1-0	1-0	4	3	W
28/02	Samut Sakhon Thailand Division 3	0-1	3-1	2	3	W
21/02	VRN Muangnont FC Thailand Division 3	2-0	2-0	0	0	W
15/02	Hua Hin City Thailand Division 3	0-0	1-1	3	5	D
24/01	Royal Thai Army Thailand Division 3	0-0	0-0	1	3	D
11/01	Samut Songkhram City Thailand Division 3	1-0	2-0	0	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Samut Songkhram City vs Thap Luang United?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Thap Luang United win (43%). Probabilities: Samut Songkhram City 26%, draw 31%, Thap Luang United 43%.

How many goals are expected in Samut Songkhram City vs Thap Luang United?

The model expects 1.83 goals (Samut Songkhram City 0.76 · Thap Luang United 1.07), with a 58% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Samut Songkhram City vs Thap Luang United?

The model gives a 54% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-0.