Football · Thailand Division 3 · 11/10, 10:30
Prediction: Thonburi United FC vs VRN Muangnont FC
Team pages: Thonburi United FC · VRN Muangnont FC
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.39Total
Thonburi United FC1.62
VRN Muangnont FC0.78
1X2
Thonburi United FC
Draw
VRN Muangnont FC
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 57%
Both teams to score 50%
Most likely score
1-0 14%
Recent form · 10 last
Thonburi United FC
4-3-3 (W-D-L)
VRN Muangnont FC
1-6-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Thonburi United FC
3–2–1
VRN Muangnont FC
(6 last)
- Thonburi United FC2-0VRN Muangnont FC
- Thonburi United FC1-1VRN Muangnont FC
- VRN Muangnont FC0-0Thonburi United FC
- VRN Muangnont FC1-2Thonburi United FC
- VRN Muangnont FC1-0Thonburi United FC
- VRN Muangnont FC0-1Thonburi United FC
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Thonburi United FC 1518 · VRN Muangnont FC 1466
| Thonburi United FC | Draw | VRN Muangnont FC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 56% | 27% | 17% |
| Market | 58% | 23% | 19% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.39 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · -0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 54%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Thonburi United FC (rating 1518 vs 1466).
- H2H favours Thonburi United FC: 3-2-1.
- Cards-heavy: 6.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Thonburi United FC | VRN Muangnont FC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.4 / 1.6 | 0.7 / 1.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.6 | 0.5 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/20/40% | 20/70/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.4 / 3.6 | 2 / 4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.3 / 0.1 | 3.9 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Thonburi United FC 3–2–1 VRN Muangnont FC
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/02/26 Thailand Division 3 | Thonburi United FC | 2-0 HT 0-0 | VRN Muangnont FC |
| 03/12/25 Thailand Division 3 Cup | Thonburi United FC | 1-1 HT 1-1 | VRN Muangnont FC |
| 26/10/25 Thailand Division 3 | VRN Muangnont FC | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Thonburi United FC |
| 08/10/25 Thailand Division 3 Cup | VRN Muangnont FC | 1-2 HT 0-1 | Thonburi United FC |
| 18/01/25 Thailand Division 3 | VRN Muangnont FC | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Thonburi United FC |
| 01/12/24 Thailand Division 3 Cup | VRN Muangnont FC | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Thonburi United FC |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Thonburi United FC | VRN Muangnont FC |
|---|---|---|
| Samut Songkhram City | 1-1 D | 0-0 D |
| Assumption United | 3-2 W | 1-0 W |
| Samut Sakhon | 3-3 D | 0-2 L |
| Thap Luang United | 0-1 L | 0-0 D |
| Record vs common | 1 W 2 D 1 L | 1 W 2 D 1 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Thonburi United FC
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/10 | Samut Songkhram City Thailand Division 3 |
1-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 20/09 | Assumption United Thailand Division 3 |
1-0 | 3-2 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 16/05 | Nara United Thailand Division 3 |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 1 | D |
| 10/05 | Samut Sakhon Thailand Division 3 |
2-2 | 3-3 | 1 | 1 | D |
| 03/05 | PT Satun Thailand Division 3 |
0-1 | 0-2 | 3 | 0 | L |
| 29/04 | Samut Sakhon Thailand Division 3 |
1-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 26/04 | PT Satun Thailand Division 3 |
0-1 | 0-3 | 7 | 2 | L |
| 22/03 | Raj Pracha Thailand Division 3 |
0-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 14/03 | Assumption United Thailand Division 3 |
1-0 | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 07/03 | Thap Luang United Thailand Division 3 |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 3 | L |
VRN Muangnont FC
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/10 | Suphanburi FC Thailand Division 3 |
2-2 | 3-3 | 4 | 6 | D |
| 20/09 | Thap Luang United Thailand Division 3 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 6 | D |
| 22/03 | Royal Thai Army Thailand Division 3 |
1-0 | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 08/03 | Assumption United Thailand Division 3 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 7 | W |
| 28/02 | Suphanburi FC Thailand Division 3 |
1-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 2 | D |
| 21/02 | Thap Luang United Thailand Division 3 |
0-2 | 0-2 | 4 | 0 | L |
| 14/02 | Thonburi United FC Thailand Division 3 |
0-0 | 0-2 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 10/02 | Samut Songkhram City Thailand Division 3 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 31/01 | Nonthaburi United Thailand Division 3 |
1-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 25/01 | Samut Sakhon Thailand Division 3 |
0-0 | 0-2 | 3 | 3 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Thonburi United FC vs VRN Muangnont FC?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Thonburi United FC win (57%). Probabilities: Thonburi United FC 57%, draw 25%, VRN Muangnont FC 18%.
How many goals are expected in Thonburi United FC vs VRN Muangnont FC?
The model expects 2.39 goals (Thonburi United FC 1.62 · VRN Muangnont FC 0.78), with a 57% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Thonburi United FC vs VRN Muangnont FC?
The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.