Football · South Korea K4 League · 11/10, 07:00

Prediction: Geoje Citizen FC vs Pyeongtaek Citizen FC

Team pages: Geoje Citizen FC · Pyeongtaek Citizen FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.45Total

Geoje Citizen FC2.1

Pyeongtaek Citizen FC1.35

1X2

54% 22% 24%

Geoje Citizen FC Draw Pyeongtaek Citizen FC

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Geoje Citizen FC 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

DWWLLWLWWD

Pyeongtaek Citizen FC 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

LWLDLLLDDW

Head-to-head

Geoje Citizen FC 4–2 Pyeongtaek Citizen FC (6 last)

Pyeongtaek Citizen FC2-3Geoje Citizen FC
Pyeongtaek Citizen FC1-2Geoje Citizen FC
Geoje Citizen FC3-1Pyeongtaek Citizen FC
Pyeongtaek Citizen FC2-1Geoje Citizen FC
Pyeongtaek Citizen FC3-0Geoje Citizen FC
Geoje Citizen FC2-1Pyeongtaek Citizen FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Geoje Citizen FC 1533 · Pyeongtaek Citizen FC 1431

	Geoje Citizen FC	Draw	Pyeongtaek Citizen FC
Our model	54%	23%	23%
Market	55%	21%	24%

Estimated total (ours) 3.45 goals · Bet365 line 3.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Geoje Citizen FC (rating 1533 vs 1431).
H2H favours Geoje Citizen FC: 4-0-2.
High corners: 10.8 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Geoje Citizen FC	Pyeongtaek Citizen FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.4	1.3 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.4	0.7 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	33/56/11%	22/44/33%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 6.1	1.8 / 4.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.8 / 0.2	3.1 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.65

X4.20

23.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.82

2 (+0.75)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.95

Under 3.51.85

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 3.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 09:32

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.65 → 1.65	Bet365 1.65
X	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20
2	3.75 → 3.75	Pinn 4.43 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1% Pinnacle margin 12.7%

Time*	1	X	2
09:09 +23’	1.65	4.20	3.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
09:28 +4’	1.51	4.12	4.47
11:04 +13’	1.52▲	4.11▼	4.43▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Geoje Citizen FC 4–0–2 Pyeongtaek Citizen FC

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
17/05/26 South Korea K4 League	Pyeongtaek Citizen FC	2-3 HT 1-0	Geoje Citizen FC
23/08/25 South Korea K4 League	Pyeongtaek Citizen FC	1-2 HT 0-1	Geoje Citizen FC
29/06/25 South Korea K4 League	Geoje Citizen FC	3-1 HT 0-1	Pyeongtaek Citizen FC
13/04/25 South Korea K4 League	Pyeongtaek Citizen FC	2-1 HT 1-1	Geoje Citizen FC
13/07/24 South Korea K4 League	Pyeongtaek Citizen FC	3-0 HT 2-0	Geoje Citizen FC
14/04/24 South Korea K4 League	Geoje Citizen FC	2-1	Pyeongtaek Citizen FC

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Geoje Citizen FC	Pyeongtaek Citizen FC
Jinju Citizen FC	0-0 D	0-2 L
Seosan Pioneer	1-0 W	0-5 L
Jincheon HR	1-4 L	1-0 W
Pyeongchang United	3-1 W	0-1 L
Namyangju FC	0-1 L	2-2 D
Geumsan Insam	1-2 L	0-0 D
Gijang United	4-2 W	2-3 L
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 3 L	1 W 2 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Geoje Citizen FC (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Geoje Citizen FC

DWWLLWLWWD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/10	Jinju Citizen FC South Korea K4 League	0-0	0-0	2	4	D
19/09	Jecheon Citizen South Korea K4 League	1-0	2-0	8	2	W
12/09	Seosan Pioneer South Korea K4 League	0-0	1-0	6	4	W
25/07	Jincheon HR South Korea K4 League	–	1-4	–	–	L
11/07	Pyeongchang United South Korea K4 League	1-1	3-1	4	4	W
07/06	Namyangju FC South Korea K4 League	0-0	0-1	9	4	L
31/05	Geumsan Insam South Korea K4 League	1-1	1-2	5	2	L
24/05	Gijang United South Korea K4 League	2-1	4-2	10	2	W
17/05	Pyeongtaek Citizen FC South Korea K4 League	0-1	3-2	6	4	W
10/05	Jinju Citizen FC South Korea K4 League	2-0	2-2	5	10	D

Pyeongtaek Citizen FC

LWLDLLLDDW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/10	Sejong SA South Korea K4 League	5-0	7-1	6	2	W
13/09	Namyangju FC South Korea K4 League	0-0	2-2	4	1	D
05/09	Geumsan Insam South Korea K4 League	0-0	0-0	3	7	D
29/08	Gijang United South Korea K4 League	0-1	2-3	6	1	L
26/07	Jinju Citizen FC South Korea K4 League	–	0-2	–	–	L
12/07	Seosan Pioneer South Korea K4 League	0-3	0-5	5	2	L
27/06	Seoul Jungnang FC South Korea K4 League	1-0	1-1	2	1	D
06/06	Haman South Korea K4 League	0-0	0-2	7	7	L
30/05	Jincheon HR South Korea K4 League	0-0	1-0	5	5	W
24/05	Pyeongchang United South Korea K4 League	0-1	0-1	4	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Geoje Citizen FC vs Pyeongtaek Citizen FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Geoje Citizen FC win (54%). Probabilities: Geoje Citizen FC 54%, draw 22%, Pyeongtaek Citizen FC 24%.

How many goals are expected in Geoje Citizen FC vs Pyeongtaek Citizen FC?

The model expects 3.45 goals (Geoje Citizen FC 2.1 · Pyeongtaek Citizen FC 1.35), with a 53% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Geoje Citizen FC vs Pyeongtaek Citizen FC?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.