Football · South Korea K4 League · 11/10, 07:00

Prediction: Pyeongchang United vs Jinju Citizen FC

Team pages: Pyeongchang United · Jinju Citizen FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.1Total

Pyeongchang United1.24

Jinju Citizen FC1.86

1X2

25% 24% 51%

Pyeongchang United Draw Jinju Citizen FC

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Pyeongchang United 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

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Jinju Citizen FC 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Pyeongchang United 2–2–2 Jinju Citizen FC (6 last)

Jinju Citizen FC4-0Pyeongchang United
Pyeongchang United0-2Jinju Citizen FC
Jinju Citizen FC1-1Pyeongchang United
Pyeongchang United4-1Jinju Citizen FC
Pyeongchang United3-0Jinju Citizen FC
Jinju Citizen FC2-2Pyeongchang United

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Pyeongchang United 1490 · Jinju Citizen FC 1553

	Pyeongchang United	Draw	Jinju Citizen FC
Our model	24%	25%	51%
Market	25%	24%	51%

Estimated total (ours) 3.1 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Jinju Citizen FC (rating 1490 vs 1553).
Cards-heavy: 7.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Pyeongchang United	Jinju Citizen FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1.5	2.1 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.6	0.9 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	33/44/22%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 4.3	2 / 4.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.6 / 0.1	3.8 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

13.60

X3.80

21.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)1.80

2 (-0.75)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 31.98

Under 31.82

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 3.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 09:32

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.60 → 3.60	Pinn 3.82 ★
X	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80
2	1.75 → 1.75	Bet365 1.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2% Pinnacle margin 12.7%

Time*	1	X	2
09:28 +4’	3.60	3.80	1.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
10:37 +39’	3.82	3.59	1.70

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Pyeongchang United 2–2–2 Jinju Citizen FC

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
16/05/26 South Korea K4 League	Jinju Citizen FC	4-0 HT 3-0	Pyeongchang United
01/11/25 South Korea K4 League	Pyeongchang United	0-2 HT 0-1	Jinju Citizen FC
20/07/25 South Korea K4 League	Jinju Citizen FC	1-1 HT 1-1	Pyeongchang United
04/05/25 South Korea K4 League	Pyeongchang United	4-1 HT 0-0	Jinju Citizen FC
07/09/24 South Korea K4 League	Pyeongchang United	3-0 HT 2-0	Jinju Citizen FC
18/05/24 South Korea K4 League	Jinju Citizen FC	2-2 HT 2-2	Pyeongchang United

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Pyeongchang United	Jinju Citizen FC
Seosan Pioneer	1-1 D	1-0 W
Jecheon Citizen	2-1 W	2-0 W
Haman	3-2 W	4-1 W
Jincheon HR	0-1 L	2-6 L
Geoje Citizen FC	1-3 L	0-0 D
Geumsan Insam	1-1 D	1-1 D
Gijang United	4-2 W	4-1 W
Pyeongtaek Citizen FC	1-0 W	2-0 W
Record vs common	4 W 2 D 2 L	5 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Jinju Citizen FC (6 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Pyeongchang United

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Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/10	Seosan Pioneer South Korea K4 League	0-0	1-1	4	4	D
12/09	Seoul Jungnang FC South Korea K4 League	1-1	2-3	3	3	L
05/09	Jecheon Citizen South Korea K4 League	0-1	2-1	11	3	W
29/08	Haman South Korea K4 League	0-1	3-2	3	5	W
22/08	Jincheon HR South Korea K4 League	0-1	0-1	4	5	L
11/07	Geoje Citizen FC South Korea K4 League	1-1	1-3	5	4	L
28/06	Sejong SA South Korea K4 League	2-1	3-1	3	3	W
07/06	Geumsan Insam South Korea K4 League	1-0	1-1	5	4	D
30/05	Gijang United South Korea K4 League	3-0	4-2	3	1	W
24/05	Pyeongtaek Citizen FC South Korea K4 League	1-0	1-0	2	5	W

Jinju Citizen FC

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Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/10	Geoje Citizen FC South Korea K4 League	0-0	0-0	2	4	D
06/09	Namyangju FC South Korea K4 League	0-2	1-2	8	4	L
30/08	Geumsan Insam South Korea K4 League	0-0	1-1	2	7	D
22/08	Gijang United South Korea K4 League	1-1	4-1	4	3	W
26/07	Pyeongtaek Citizen FC South Korea K4 League	–	2-0	–	–	W
27/06	Seosan Pioneer South Korea K4 League	0-0	1-0	10	2	W
06/06	Jecheon Citizen South Korea K4 League	1-0	2-0	5	4	W
31/05	Haman South Korea K4 League	2-0	4-1	6	7	W
23/05	Jincheon HR South Korea K4 League	1-3	2-6	5	2	L
16/05	Pyeongchang United South Korea K4 League	3-0	4-0	1	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Pyeongchang United vs Jinju Citizen FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Jinju Citizen FC win (51%). Probabilities: Pyeongchang United 25%, draw 24%, Jinju Citizen FC 51%.

How many goals are expected in Pyeongchang United vs Jinju Citizen FC?

The model expects 3.1 goals (Pyeongchang United 1.24 · Jinju Citizen FC 1.86), with a 52% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Pyeongchang United vs Jinju Citizen FC?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.