Football · Hong Kong 2nd Division · 11/10, 09:30

Prediction: P.B Alliance vs Kwai Tsing DFA

Team pages: P.B Alliance · Kwai Tsing DFA

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.03Total

P.B Alliance2.22

Kwai Tsing DFA1.8

1X2

47% 22% 31%

P.B Alliance Draw Kwai Tsing DFA

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 62%

Most likely score

2-1 8%

Recent form · 10 last

P.B Alliance 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

LLWLLWLWWD

Kwai Tsing DFA 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

LWLDWLWWWW

Head-to-head

P.B Alliance 1–5 Kwai Tsing DFA (6 last)

Kwai Tsing DFA5-2P.B Alliance
P.B Alliance1-3Kwai Tsing DFA
Kwai Tsing DFA1-4P.B Alliance
P.B Alliance0-1Kwai Tsing DFA
P.B Alliance0-4Kwai Tsing DFA
Kwai Tsing DFA3-2P.B Alliance

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · P.B Alliance 1521 · Kwai Tsing DFA 1557

	P.B Alliance	Draw	Kwai Tsing DFA
Our model	47%	22%	31%
Market	47%	21%	31%

Estimated total (ours) 4.03 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 76%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Kwai Tsing DFA: 5-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 6.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	P.B Alliance	Kwai Tsing DFA
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 2.7	1.8 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 1.1	0.8 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/10/50%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 4.7	1.9 / 4.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.4 / 0.1	4.1 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.90

X4.20

22.88

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.98

2 (+0.5)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.82

Under 3.51.98

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 3.75

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 09:32

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.88 → 1.90▼	Bet365 1.90
X	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20
2	1.91 → 2.88▲	Bet365 2.88

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
03:09 +13’	2.88	4.20	1.91
09:25 +7’	1.90▼	4.20	2.88▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · P.B Alliance 1–0–5 Kwai Tsing DFA

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Date	Home	Score	Away
04/01/26 Hong Kong 2nd Division	Kwai Tsing DFA	5-2 HT 2-1	P.B Alliance
10/11/24 Hong Kong 2nd Division	P.B Alliance	1-3 HT 0-2	Kwai Tsing DFA
26/05/24 Hong Kong 2nd Division	Kwai Tsing DFA	1-4 HT 0-4	P.B Alliance
26/11/23 Hong Kong 2nd Division	P.B Alliance	0-1 HT 0-0	Kwai Tsing DFA
05/06/22 Hong Kong Division Two League Cup	P.B Alliance	0-4 HT 0-1	Kwai Tsing DFA
26/09/21 Hong Kong 2nd Division	Kwai Tsing DFA	3-2 HT 3-0	P.B Alliance

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	P.B Alliance	Kwai Tsing DFA
Wanchai	3-0 W	1-4 L
Wong Tai Sin	1-3 L	1-0 W
Leaper FC	1-5 L	1-2 L
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 2 L	1 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Kwai Tsing DFA (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

P.B Alliance

LLWLLWLWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/09	Wing Go Fu Moon Hong Kong 2nd Division	0-1	1-1	7	5	D
20/09	Wanchai Hong Kong 2nd Division	1-0	3-0	13	1	W
13/09	Kowloon Cricket Club Hong Kong 2nd Division	2-1	4-1	10	0	W
31/05	Kowloon Cricket Club Hong Kong 2nd Division	0-2	0-5	5	2	L
17/05	Fukien Hong Kong 2nd Division	1-0	1-0	2	4	W
12/04	Tsuen Wan Hong Kong 2nd Division	0-3	1-5	6	2	L
08/03	Wong Tai Sin Hong Kong 2nd Division	0-1	1-3	1	1	L
08/02	Sparta Asia Hong Kong 2nd Division	3-0	3-2	2	3	W
04/01	Kwai Tsing DFA Hong Kong 2nd Division	1-2	2-5	0	4	L
21/12	Leaper FC Hong Kong 2nd Division	1-1	1-5	1	3	L

Kwai Tsing DFA

LWLDWLWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	Wing Yee Hong Kong 2nd Division	2-0	3-0	3	3	W
13/09	Kwun Tong Hong Kong 2nd Division	1-0	1-0	5	3	W
06/09	Wong Tai Sin Hong Kong 2nd Division	0-0	1-0	4	10	W
10/05	Yau Tsim Mong Hong Kong 2nd Division	0-0	1-0	3	3	W
26/04	Leaper FC Hong Kong 2nd Division	0-1	1-2	10	5	L
12/04	GFC Friends Hong Kong 2nd Division	2-1	4-3	1	6	W
01/03	Wing Yee Hong Kong 2nd Division	1-1	1-1	6	1	D
01/02	Wanchai Hong Kong 2nd Division	0-1	1-4	7	1	L
04/01	P.B Alliance Hong Kong 2nd Division	2-1	5-2	5	4	W
21/12	Sui Tung Hong Kong 2nd Division	0-1	0-1	5	6	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in P.B Alliance vs Kwai Tsing DFA?

According to our model, the most likely result is a P.B Alliance win (47%). Probabilities: P.B Alliance 47%, draw 22%, Kwai Tsing DFA 31%.

How many goals are expected in P.B Alliance vs Kwai Tsing DFA?

The model expects 4.03 goals (P.B Alliance 2.22 · Kwai Tsing DFA 1.8), with a 54% chance of over 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in P.B Alliance vs Kwai Tsing DFA?

The model gives a 62% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.