Football · El Salvador Apertura · 12/10, 01:30

Prediction: Alianza FC vs Internacional Santa Tecla

Team pages: Alianza FC · Internacional Santa Tecla

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.57Total

Alianza FC1.33

Internacional Santa Tecla1.24

1X2

38% 28% 34%

Alianza FC Draw Internacional Santa Tecla

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Alianza FC 3-5-2 (W-D-L)

LDWDWDDWDL

Internacional Santa Tecla 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

WWWLWDDDLD

Head-to-head

Alianza FC 1–1–3 Internacional Santa Tecla (5 last)

Internacional Santa Tecla2-0Alianza FC
Internacional Santa Tecla2-0Alianza FC
Alianza FC1-3Internacional Santa Tecla
Internacional Santa Tecla0-1Alianza FC
Alianza FC0-0Internacional Santa Tecla

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Alianza FC 1473 · Internacional Santa Tecla 1550

	Alianza FC	Draw	Internacional Santa Tecla
Our model	37%	29%	33%
Market	38%	28%	34%

Estimated total (ours) 2.57 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Internacional Santa Tecla (rating 1473 vs 1550).
H2H favours Internacional Santa Tecla: 3-1-1.
High corners: 10.8 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Alianza FC	Internacional Santa Tecla
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.6	1.5 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.8	0.4 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	3 / 5.3	3.2 / 5.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0.4	3.9 / 0.6

Odds Bet365

12.35

X3.25

22.63

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.77

2 (0)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.80

Under 2.252.00

Diff.: 0.65 · xG: 2.9

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 12:00

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.15 → 2.35▲	Bet365 2.35
X	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25
2	2.90 → 2.63▼	Bet365 2.63

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
22:21 +6’	2.15	3.25	2.90
11:44 +16’	2.35▲	3.25	2.63▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Alianza FC 1–1–3 Internacional Santa Tecla

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Date	Home	Score	Away
09/08/26 El Salvador Apertura	Internacional Santa Tecla	2-0 HT 1-0	Alianza FC
15/03/26 El Salvador Clausura	Internacional Santa Tecla	2-0 HT 2-0	Alianza FC
29/01/26 El Salvador Clausura	Alianza FC	1-3 HT 1-1	Internacional Santa Tecla
22/09/25 El Salvador Clausura	Internacional Santa Tecla	0-1 HT 0-0	Alianza FC
20/07/25 El Salvador Apertura	Alianza FC	0-0 HT 0-0	Internacional Santa Tecla

Standings · El Salvador Apertura

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	CD Luis Angel Firpo	14	8	4	2	26	11	28
2	CD FAS	13	8	3	2	24	12	27
3	AD Isidro Metapan	13	8	2	3	20	12	26
4	Internacional Santa Tecla	14	5	7	2	19	12	22
5	CD Aguila	14	5	5	4	22	18	20
6	CD Platense Zacatecoluca	15	5	4	6	19	20	19
7	Alianza FC	13	4	6	3	20	19	18
8	Municipal Limeno	15	5	2	8	21	22	17
9	CD INCA Aruba	15	4	4	7	13	27	16
10	Atlético Balboa	14	3	4	7	15	22	13
11	Fuerte San Francisco	15	2	6	7	11	24	12
12	CD Cacahuatique	15	2	5	8	15	26	11

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Alianza FC	Internacional Santa Tecla
CD FAS	1-2 L	2-2 D
CD Luis Angel Firpo	2-2 D	0-3 L
CD Platense Zacatecoluca	2-1 W	3-0 W
CD INCA Aruba	1-1 D	4-1 W
Fuerte San Francisco	2-2 D	1-1 D
Municipal Limeno	3-2 W	1-0 W
CD Aguila	2-2 D	1-2 L
Atlético Balboa	2-0 W	1-1 D
AD Isidro Metapan	0-2 L	0-0 D
Record vs common	3 W 4 D 2 L	3 W 4 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Internacional Santa Tecla (4 of 9 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Alianza FC

LDWDWDDWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/10	CD FAS El Salvador Apertura	1-2	1-2	3	4	L
04/10	CD Luis Angel Firpo El Salvador Apertura	1-1	2-2	5	5	D
01/10	CD Platense Zacatecoluca El Salvador Apertura	1-1	2-1	3	6	W
27/09	CD INCA Aruba El Salvador Apertura	1-0	1-1	7	2	D
24/09	Fuerte San Francisco El Salvador Apertura	1-0	2-2	4	7	D
20/09	Municipal Limeno El Salvador Apertura	1-1	3-2	3	2	W
06/09	CD Aguila El Salvador Apertura	1-1	2-2	5	9	D
30/08	Atlético Balboa El Salvador Apertura	0-0	2-0	11	4	W
26/08	CD Platense Zacatecoluca El Salvador Apertura	1-1	2-2	6	4	D
23/08	AD Isidro Metapan El Salvador Apertura	0-1	0-2	6	5	L

Internacional Santa Tecla

WWWLWDDDLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/10	Fuerte San Francisco El Salvador Apertura	0-0	1-1	8	7	D
30/09	CD Aguila El Salvador Apertura	0-0	1-2	3	1	L
27/09	Atlético Balboa El Salvador Apertura	1-0	1-1	12	3	D
20/09	AD Isidro Metapan El Salvador Apertura	0-0	0-0	4	5	D
17/09	CD FAS El Salvador Apertura	1-2	2-2	8	6	D
13/09	CD Cacahuatique El Salvador Apertura	1-0	2-0	4	2	W
07/09	CD Luis Angel Firpo El Salvador Apertura	0-3	0-3	1	5	L
29/08	CD Platense Zacatecoluca El Salvador Apertura	0-0	3-0	5	8	W
22/08	CD INCA Aruba El Salvador Apertura	0-0	4-1	4	1	W
15/08	Municipal Limeno El Salvador Apertura	1-0	1-0	6	7	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Alianza FC vs Internacional Santa Tecla?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Alianza FC win (38%). Probabilities: Alianza FC 38%, draw 28%, Internacional Santa Tecla 34%.

How many goals are expected in Alianza FC vs Internacional Santa Tecla?

The model expects 2.57 goals (Alianza FC 1.33 · Internacional Santa Tecla 1.24), with a 54% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Alianza FC vs Internacional Santa Tecla?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.