Football · Latvia 1. Liga · 10/10, 16:00

Prediction: JFK Ventspils vs Saldus SS/Leevon

Team pages: JFK Ventspils

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.41Total

JFK Ventspils1.15

Saldus SS/Leevon2.26

1X2

18% 20% 62%

JFK Ventspils Draw Saldus SS/Leevon

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-2 10%

Recent form · 10 last

JFK Ventspils 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

WLDLLDLLWL

Saldus SS/Leevon 8-1-1 (W-D-L)

LWWWWWWWDW

Head-to-head

JFK Ventspils 1–2 Saldus SS/Leevon (3 last)

JFK Ventspils1-3Saldus SS/Leevon
Saldus SS/Leevon0-1JFK Ventspils
JFK Ventspils2-3Saldus SS/Leevon

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · JFK Ventspils 1430 · Saldus SS/Leevon 1578

	JFK Ventspils	Draw	Saldus SS/Leevon
Our model	17%	21%	62%
Market	18%	20%	62%

Estimated total (ours) 3.41 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 72%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Saldus SS/Leevon (rating 1430 vs 1578).
H2H favours Saldus SS/Leevon: 2-0-1.
High corners: 12.9 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	JFK Ventspils	Saldus SS/Leevon
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 2.1	2.4 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.8	1.6 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	60/30/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 5.1	4.8 / 7.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.2 / 0.1	4.3 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

15.00

X4.50

21.44

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1.25)1.85

2 (-1.25)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.90

Under 3.251.90

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 3.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:11

	Bet365	Best now
1	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00
X	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50
2	1.44 → 1.44	Bet365 1.44

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
17:06 +5’	5.00	4.50	1.44

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · JFK Ventspils 1–0–2 Saldus SS/Leevon

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Date	Home	Score	Away
20/06/26 Latvia Cup	JFK Ventspils	1-3 HT 1-2	Saldus SS/Leevon
16/09/23 Latvia 1. Liga	Saldus SS/Leevon	0-1 HT 0-1	JFK Ventspils
13/05/23 Latvia 1. Liga	JFK Ventspils	2-3 HT 1-1	Saldus SS/Leevon

Standings · Latvia 1. Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Metta/LU	21	17	3	1	89	17	54
2	Valmiera FC	21	16	3	2	60	23	51
3	Saldus SS/Leevon	21	15	4	2	43	25	49
4	FK Beitar Riga/Mariners	21	14	5	2	50	23	47
5	JDFS Alberts	21	11	4	6	42	31	37
6	Marupes SC	21	9	2	10	34	32	29
7	Skanstes SK	21	8	2	11	43	42	26
8	Riga FC II	21	7	5	9	29	37	26
9	SK Super Nova II	21	6	7	8	28	32	25
10	FK Tukums 2000/TSS II	21	5	3	13	27	60	18
11	FK Smiltene/BJSS	21	4	4	13	29	57	16
12	RFS II	21	4	3	14	34	62	15
13	JFK Ventspils	21	3	6	12	21	41	15
14	Rezeknes FA	21	1	3	17	17	64	6

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	JFK Ventspils	Saldus SS/Leevon
FK Tukums 2000/TSS II	0-1 L	3-0 W
Skanstes SK	1-0 W	2-1 W
RFS II	1-4 L	6-3 W
Riga FC II	1-1 D	1-1 D
SK Super Nova II	0-2 L	2-1 W
FK Smiltene/BJSS	1-2 L	4-2 W
FK Beitar Riga/Mariners	1-1 D	2-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 4 L	6 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Saldus SS/Leevon (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

JFK Ventspils

WLDLLDLLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	FK Tukums 2000/TSS II Latvia 1. Liga	0-1	0-1	–	–	L
20/09	Skanstes SK Latvia 1. Liga	0-0	1-0	9	3	W
12/09	Metta/LU Latvia 1. Liga	0-3	0-7	2	2	L
05/09	RFS II Latvia 1. Liga	1-1	1-4	2	4	L
29/08	Riga FC II Latvia 1. Liga	1-1	1-1	6	5	D
08/08	SK Super Nova II Latvia 1. Liga	0-1	0-2	6	2	L
02/08	FK Smiltene/BJSS Latvia 1. Liga	1-1	1-2	10	4	L
25/07	FK Beitar Riga/Mariners Latvia 1. Liga	1-0	1-1	6	4	D
18/07	JDFS Alberts Latvia 1. Liga	0-0	1-3	4	2	L
11/07	Skanstes SK Latvia 1. Liga	3-0	3-0	1	4	W

Saldus SS/Leevon

LWWWWWWWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	RFS II Latvia 1. Liga	5-0	6-3	–	–	W
13/09	Riga FC II Latvia 1. Liga	1-0	1-1	5	7	D
06/09	FK Tukums 2000/TSS II Latvia 1. Liga	2-0	3-0	4	3	W
29/08	SK Super Nova II Latvia 1. Liga	2-1	2-1	11	3	W
23/08	FK Smiltene/BJSS Latvia 1. Liga	3-2	4-2	14	2	W
08/08	Marupes SC Latvia 1. Liga	0-0	1-0	7	5	W
01/08	Rezeknes FA Latvia 1. Liga	1-0	2-1	–	–	W
25/07	Skanstes SK Latvia 1. Liga	1-1	2-1	–	–	W
18/07	FK Beitar Riga/Mariners Latvia 1. Liga	1-1	2-1	–	–	W
05/07	Valmiera FC Latvia 1. Liga	0-2	1-4	6	7	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in JFK Ventspils vs Saldus SS/Leevon?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Saldus SS/Leevon win (62%). Probabilities: JFK Ventspils 18%, draw 20%, Saldus SS/Leevon 62%.

How many goals are expected in JFK Ventspils vs Saldus SS/Leevon?

The model expects 3.41 goals (JFK Ventspils 1.15 · Saldus SS/Leevon 2.26), with a 50% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in JFK Ventspils vs Saldus SS/Leevon?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.