Football · Latvia 1. Liga · 18/10, 16:00

Prediction: JFK Ventspils vs Marupes SC

Team pages: JFK Ventspils · Marupes SC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.91Total

JFK Ventspils1.51

Marupes SC1.4

1X2

39% 27% 34%

JFK Ventspils Draw Marupes SC

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

JFK Ventspils 1-2-7 (W-D-L)

LDLLDLLWLL

Marupes SC 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

JFK Ventspils 3–2 Marupes SC (5 last)

Marupes SC1-2JFK Ventspils
JFK Ventspils1-0Marupes SC
Marupes SC1-2JFK Ventspils
JFK Ventspils2-3Marupes SC
Marupes SC1-0JFK Ventspils

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours JFK Ventspils: 3-0-2.
Cards-heavy: 6.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	JFK Ventspils	Marupes SC
Goals for / against (FT)	0.6 / 2.5	1.5 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 1.1	0.7 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/50/40%	10/30/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 5.7	0.8 / 4.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.1 / 0.1	3.6 / 0

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 31.94

Under 31.77

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 3.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 05:15

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	2.61 → 2.61	Pinn 2.61
X	3.55 → 3.55	Pinn 3.55
2	2.17 → 2.17	Pinn 2.17

See the full journey (1)

Pinnacle margin 12.6%

Time*	1	X	2
05:12 +4’	2.61	3.55	2.17

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · JFK Ventspils 3–0–2 Marupes SC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/06/26 Latvia 1. Liga	Marupes SC	1-2 HT 1-1	JFK Ventspils
01/11/25 Latvia 1. Liga	JFK Ventspils	1-0 HT 0-0	Marupes SC
05/07/25 Latvia 1. Liga	Marupes SC	1-2 HT 0-1	JFK Ventspils
15/09/24 Latvia 1. Liga	JFK Ventspils	2-3 HT 0-2	Marupes SC
11/05/24 Latvia 1. Liga	Marupes SC	1-0 HT 0-0	JFK Ventspils

Standings · Latvia 1. Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Metta/LU	23	19	3	1	96	18	60
2	Valmiera FC	22	16	4	2	61	24	52
3	Saldus SS/Leevon	22	16	4	2	47	25	52
4	FK Beitar Riga/Mariners	22	14	5	3	50	27	47
5	JDFS Alberts	22	12	4	6	44	31	40
6	Marupes SC	22	10	2	10	37	34	32
7	Riga FC II	23	8	6	9	36	39	30
8	Skanstes SK	22	8	2	12	43	44	26
9	SK Super Nova II	23	6	8	9	30	36	26
10	FK Smiltene/BJSS	23	5	5	13	34	61	20
11	FK Tukums 2000/TSS II	22	5	3	14	29	63	18
12	RFS II	22	4	3	15	36	65	15
13	JFK Ventspils	22	3	6	13	21	45	15
14	Rezeknes FA	22	1	3	18	17	69	6

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	JFK Ventspils	Marupes SC
Saldus SS/Leevon	0-4 L	0-1 L
FK Tukums 2000/TSS II	0-1 L	5-0 W
Skanstes SK	1-0 W	2-4 L
Metta/LU	0-7 L	0-4 L
RFS II	1-4 L	3-2 W
Riga FC II	1-1 D	0-0 D
SK Super Nova II	0-2 L	2-1 W
JDFS Alberts	1-3 L	0-2 L
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 6 L	3 W 1 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Marupes SC (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

JFK Ventspils

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Saldus SS/Leevon Latvia 1. Liga	0-3	0-4	6	3	L
26/09	FK Tukums 2000/TSS II Latvia 1. Liga	0-1	0-1	–	–	L
20/09	Skanstes SK Latvia 1. Liga	0-0	1-0	9	3	W
12/09	Metta/LU Latvia 1. Liga	0-3	0-7	2	2	L
05/09	RFS II Latvia 1. Liga	1-1	1-4	2	4	L
29/08	Riga FC II Latvia 1. Liga	1-1	1-1	6	5	D
08/08	SK Super Nova II Latvia 1. Liga	0-1	0-2	6	2	L
02/08	FK Smiltene/BJSS Latvia 1. Liga	1-1	1-2	10	4	L
25/07	FK Beitar Riga/Mariners Latvia 1. Liga	1-0	1-1	6	4	D
18/07	JDFS Alberts Latvia 1. Liga	0-0	1-3	4	2	L

Marupes SC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	RFS II Latvia 1. Liga	1-2	3-2	5	2	W
20/09	Riga FC II Latvia 1. Liga	0-0	0-0	2	3	D
12/09	FK Tukums 2000/TSS II Latvia 1. Liga	5-0	5-0	–	–	W
29/08	JDFS Alberts Latvia 1. Liga	0-2	0-2	5	4	L
22/08	Valmiera FC Latvia 1. Liga	0-2	1-4	7	4	L
15/08	SK Super Nova II Latvia 1. Liga	0-1	2-1	5	5	W
08/08	Saldus SS/Leevon Latvia 1. Liga	0-0	0-1	7	5	L
01/08	Skanstes SK Latvia 1. Liga	1-2	2-4	5	2	L
25/07	Rezeknes FA Latvia 1. Liga	0-0	2-1	–	–	W
18/07	Metta/LU Latvia 1. Liga	0-1	0-4	2	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in JFK Ventspils vs Marupes SC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a JFK Ventspils win (39%). Probabilities: JFK Ventspils 39%, draw 27%, Marupes SC 34%.

How many goals are expected in JFK Ventspils vs Marupes SC?

The model expects 2.91 goals (JFK Ventspils 1.51 · Marupes SC 1.4), with a 55% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in JFK Ventspils vs Marupes SC?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.