Football · Latvia 1. Liga · 18/10, 13:00

Prediction: Valmiera FC vs FK Tukums 2000/TSS II

Team pages: Valmiera FC · FK Tukums 2000/TSS II

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.43Total

Valmiera FC2.88

FK Tukums 2000/TSS II1.55

1X2

64% 17% 18%

Valmiera FC Draw FK Tukums 2000/TSS II

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 62%

Most likely score

2-1 8%

Recent form · 10 last

Valmiera FC 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

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FK Tukums 2000/TSS II 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Valmiera FC 1–0 FK Tukums 2000/TSS II (1 last)

FK Tukums 2000/TSS II1-4Valmiera FC

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 84%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Valmiera FC (rating 1584 vs 1439).
Cards-heavy: 7.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Valmiera FC	FK Tukums 2000/TSS II
Goals for / against (FT)	2.9 / 1.2	1.3 / 3.2
Goals for / against (HT)	1.3 / 0.6	0.7 / 2.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/20/20%	20/10/70%
Corners (HT / FT)	3 / 4.3	2.3 / 4.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.9 / 0.1	3 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 4.251.89

Under 4.251.81

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 4.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 03:06

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	1.10 → 1.10	Pinn 1.10
X	8.51 → 8.51	Pinn 8.51
2	11.09 → 11.09	Pinn 11.09

See the full journey (1)

Pinnacle margin 12%

Time*	1	X	2
02:12 +54’	1.10	8.51	11.09

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Valmiera FC 1–0–0 FK Tukums 2000/TSS II

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/06/26 Latvia 1. Liga	FK Tukums 2000/TSS II	1-4 HT 0-1	Valmiera FC

Standings · Latvia 1. Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Metta/LU	23	19	3	1	96	18	60
2	Valmiera FC	22	16	4	2	61	24	52
3	Saldus SS/Leevon	22	16	4	2	47	25	52
4	FK Beitar Riga/Mariners	23	15	5	3	54	30	50
5	JDFS Alberts	22	12	4	6	44	31	40
6	Marupes SC	22	10	2	10	37	34	32
7	Riga FC II	23	8	6	9	36	39	30
8	Skanstes SK	23	8	2	13	46	48	26
9	SK Super Nova II	23	6	8	9	30	36	26
10	FK Smiltene/BJSS	23	5	5	13	34	61	20
11	FK Tukums 2000/TSS II	22	5	3	14	29	63	18
12	RFS II	22	4	3	15	36	65	15
13	JFK Ventspils	22	3	6	13	21	45	15
14	Rezeknes FA	22	1	3	18	17	69	6

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Valmiera FC	FK Tukums 2000/TSS II
FK Beitar Riga/Mariners	2-4 L	2-4 L
JDFS Alberts	2-1 W	1-1 D
Metta/LU	2-2 D	0-9 L
Rezeknes FA	6-1 W	3-1 W
Marupes SC	4-1 W	0-5 L
FK Smiltene/BJSS	4-1 W	2-3 L
RFS II	2-1 W	2-0 W
Skanstes SK	3-0 W	2-6 L
Record vs common	6 W 1 D 1 L	2 W 1 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: Valmiera FC (6 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Valmiera FC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	SK Super Nova II Latvia 1. Liga	0-1	1-1	–	–	D
19/09	FK Beitar Riga/Mariners Latvia 1. Liga	2-1	2-4	6	4	L
12/09	JDFS Alberts Latvia 1. Liga	0-0	2-1	2	6	W
05/09	Metta/LU Latvia 1. Liga	1-2	2-2	1	10	D
30/08	Rezeknes FA Latvia 1. Liga	1-1	6-1	–	–	W
22/08	Marupes SC Latvia 1. Liga	2-0	4-1	7	4	W
08/08	FK Smiltene/BJSS Latvia 1. Liga	3-0	4-1	7	3	W
01/08	RFS II Latvia 1. Liga	2-1	2-1	1	7	W
27/07	Riga FC II Latvia 1. Liga	1-0	3-0	5	1	W
18/07	Skanstes SK Latvia 1. Liga	1-0	3-0	5	5	W

FK Tukums 2000/TSS II

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	FK Smiltene/BJSS Latvia 1. Liga	1-2	2-3	6	6	L
26/09	JFK Ventspils Latvia 1. Liga	1-0	1-0	–	–	W
19/09	Rezeknes FA Latvia 1. Liga	2-0	3-1	–	–	W
12/09	Marupes SC Latvia 1. Liga	0-5	0-5	–	–	L
06/09	Saldus SS/Leevon Latvia 1. Liga	0-2	0-3	5	3	L
30/08	Skanstes SK Latvia 1. Liga	2-5	2-6	4	2	L
09/08	FK Beitar Riga/Mariners Latvia 1. Liga	1-2	2-4	–	–	L
03/08	JDFS Alberts Latvia 1. Liga	0-1	1-1	5	6	D
27/07	Metta/LU Latvia 1. Liga	0-6	0-9	0	0	L
20/07	RFS II Latvia 1. Liga	0-0	2-0	9	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Valmiera FC vs FK Tukums 2000/TSS II?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Valmiera FC win (64%). Probabilities: Valmiera FC 64%, draw 17%, FK Tukums 2000/TSS II 18%.

How many goals are expected in Valmiera FC vs FK Tukums 2000/TSS II?

The model expects 4.43 goals (Valmiera FC 2.88 · FK Tukums 2000/TSS II 1.55), with a 50% chance of over 4.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Valmiera FC vs FK Tukums 2000/TSS II?

The model gives a 62% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.