Football · Colombia Primera A · 23/10, 03:00
Prediction: Atletico Nacional Medellin vs Deportivo Pasto
Team pages: Atletico Nacional Medellin · Deportivo Pasto
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.85Total
Atletico Nacional Medellin2.21
Deportivo Pasto0.65
1X2
Atletico Nacional Medellin
Draw
Deportivo Pasto
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 54%
Not both to score 51%
Most likely score
2-0 14%
Recent form · 10 last
Atletico Nacional Medellin
6-2-2 (W-D-L)
Deportivo Pasto
2-3-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Atletico Nacional Medellin
5–1–0
Deportivo Pasto
(6 last)
- Deportivo Pasto1-2Atletico Nacional Medellin
- Deportivo Pasto2-2Atletico Nacional Medellin
- Atletico Nacional Medellin3-0Deportivo Pasto
- Atletico Nacional Medellin2-1Deportivo Pasto
- Deportivo Pasto0-1Atletico Nacional Medellin
- Deportivo Pasto1-2Atletico Nacional Medellin
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Atletico Nacional Medellin 1574 · Deportivo Pasto 1433
| Atletico Nacional Medellin | Draw | Deportivo Pasto | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 72% | 19% | 9% |
| Market | 73% | 18% | 9% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.85 goals · Bet365 line 2.75
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Atletico Nacional Medellin (rating 1574 vs 1433).
- H2H favours Atletico Nacional Medellin: 5-1-0.
- High corners: 10.8 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 10.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Atletico Nacional Medellin | Deportivo Pasto | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2 / 1 | 0.6 / 1.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.9 / 0.7 | 0.3 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/40/20% | 0/60/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.6 / 6.3 | 1.9 / 4.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.9 / 0.2 | 5.4 / 1.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Atletico Nacional Medellin 5–1–0 Deportivo Pasto
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30/03/26 Colombia Primera A | Deportivo Pasto | 1-2 HT 1-1 | Atletico Nacional Medellin |
| 18/10/25 Colombia Primera A | Deportivo Pasto | 2-2 HT 0-1 | Atletico Nacional Medellin |
| 30/04/25 Colombia Primera A | Atletico Nacional Medellin | 3-0 HT 1-0 | Deportivo Pasto |
| 06/12/24 Colombia Primera A | Atletico Nacional Medellin | 2-1 HT 0-0 | Deportivo Pasto |
| 24/11/24 Colombia Primera A | Deportivo Pasto | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Atletico Nacional Medellin |
| 06/10/24 Colombia Primera A | Deportivo Pasto | 1-2 HT 0-1 | Atletico Nacional Medellin |
Standings · Colombia Primera A · Finalizacion
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | America de Cali | 14 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 26 | 10 | 28 |
| 2 | Atletico Nacional Medellin | 13 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 25 | 12 | 26 |
| 3 | Deportivo Cali | 14 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 20 | 9 | 26 |
| 4 | Millonarios | 16 | 6 | 8 | 2 | 24 | 14 | 26 |
| 5 | Atletico Bucaramanga | 13 | 6 | 7 | 0 | 22 | 12 | 25 |
| 6 | Independiente Medellin | 14 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 21 | 19 | 23 |
| 7 | Independiente Santa Fe | 13 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 19 | 13 | 22 |
| 8 | Cucuta Deportivo | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 17 | 19 | 21 |
| 9 | Once Caldas | 15 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 19 | 17 | 20 |
| 10 | Deportes Tolima | 15 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 18 | 18 | 20 |
| 11 | Aguilas Doradas | 14 | 4 | 7 | 3 | 19 | 19 | 19 |
| 12 | Llaneros | 14 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 16 | 17 | 17 |
| 13 | Internacional de Bogota | 15 | 3 | 8 | 4 | 18 | 21 | 17 |
| 14 | Alianza | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 15 | 26 | 15 |
| 15 | Deportivo Pereira | 14 | 2 | 7 | 5 | 10 | 18 | 13 |
| 16 | Junior | 14 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 19 | 23 | 12 |
| 17 | Boyaca Chico | 14 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 11 | 25 | 12 |
| 18 | Fortaleza CEIF | 14 | 1 | 8 | 5 | 15 | 21 | 11 |
| 19 | Jaguares de Cordoba | 13 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 15 | 26 | 10 |
| 20 | Deportivo Pasto | 13 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 9 | 19 | 9 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Atletico Nacional Medellin | Deportivo Pasto |
|---|---|---|
| Cucuta Deportivo | 0-1 L | 2-2 D |
| Boyaca Chico | 4-1 W | 0-3 L |
| Llaneros | 0-2 L | 0-1 L |
| Internacional de Bogota | 3-2 W | 1-1 D |
| Alianza | 5-1 W | 0-1 L |
| Deportivo Cali | 2-1 W | 0-2 L |
| Record vs common | 4 W 0 D 2 L | 0 W 2 D 4 L |
Better against common opponents: Atletico Nacional Medellin (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Atletico Nacional Medellin
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/10 | Cucuta Deportivo Colombia Primera A |
0-1 | 0-1 | 9 | 2 | L |
| 17/10 | Boyaca Chico Colombia Primera A |
1-0 | 4-1 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 09/10 | Deportes Tolima Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | D |
| 01/10 | Junior Colombia Primera A |
2-1 | 3-1 | 7 | 10 | W |
| 25/09 | Millonarios Colombia Primera A |
1-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 6 | D |
| 21/09 | Llaneros Colombia Primera A |
0-2 | 0-2 | 9 | 7 | L |
| 17/09 | Internacional de Bogota Colombia Primera A |
1-1 | 3-2 | 9 | 3 | W |
| 13/09 | Aguilas Doradas Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 2-0 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 30/08 | Alianza Colombia Primera A |
3-1 | 5-1 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 27/08 | Deportivo Cali Colombia Primera A |
1-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 8 | W |
Deportivo Pasto
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/10 | Alianza Colombia Primera A |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 04/10 | Fortaleza CEIF Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 26/09 | Boyaca Chico Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 0-3 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 20/09 | Once Caldas Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 7 | W |
| 15/09 | America de Cali Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 8 | W |
| 06/09 | Cucuta Deportivo Colombia Primera A |
1-2 | 2-2 | 5 | 13 | D |
| 01/09 | Deportivo Pereira Colombia Primera A |
1-2 | 1-2 | 8 | 6 | L |
| 28/08 | Internacional de Bogota Colombia Primera A |
1-1 | 1-1 | 2 | 3 | D |
| 23/08 | Llaneros Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 11 | L |
| 09/08 | Deportivo Cali Colombia Primera A |
0-1 | 0-2 | 6 | 8 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Atletico Nacional Medellin vs Deportivo Pasto?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Atletico Nacional Medellin win (73%). Probabilities: Atletico Nacional Medellin 73%, draw 18%, Deportivo Pasto 9%.
How many goals are expected in Atletico Nacional Medellin vs Deportivo Pasto?
The model expects 2.85 goals (Atletico Nacional Medellin 2.21 · Deportivo Pasto 0.65), with a 51% chance of over 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Atletico Nacional Medellin vs Deportivo Pasto?
The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.