Football · Bolivia Primera Division · 19/10, 01:30

Prediction: Guabira vs Oriente Petrolero

Team pages: Guabira · Oriente Petrolero

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.17Total

Guabira1.81

Oriente Petrolero1.36

1X2

47% 25% 28%

Guabira Draw Oriente Petrolero

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Guabira 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

DWWWDLDLWL

Oriente Petrolero 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

WLWWWDLLWW

Head-to-head

Guabira 1–2–3 Oriente Petrolero (6 last)

Guabira2-1Oriente Petrolero
Oriente Petrolero1-0Guabira
Oriente Petrolero2-2Guabira
Oriente Petrolero4-0Guabira
Guabira1-2Oriente Petrolero
Guabira3-3Oriente Petrolero

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Guabira 1497 · Oriente Petrolero 1544

	Guabira	Draw	Oriente Petrolero
Our model	47%	25%	28%
Market	47%	25%	28%

Estimated total (ours) 3.17 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 67%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Oriente Petrolero (rating 1497 vs 1544).
H2H favours Oriente Petrolero: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 9.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Guabira	Oriente Petrolero
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.8	2.2 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 1.1	1.1 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	40/50/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 4.7	2.6 / 5.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0.4	5 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

11.95

X3.70

23.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)2.00

2 (+0.5)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.80

Under 3.52.00

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 3.3

Market movement

Match winner · 7 moves · last 16:10

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.95 → 2.30▲	Pinn 2.42 ★
X	3.70 → 3.40▼	Pinn 3.48
2	3.25 → 2.75▼	Bet365 2.75

See the full journey (7)

Bet365 margin 9.3% Pinnacle margin 10.5%

Time*	1	X	2
22:12 +6’	1.95	3.70	3.25
11:22 +4’	2.00▲	3.60▼	3.25
17:17 +38’	2.15▲	3.50▼	2.90▼
06:16 +3’	2.10▼	3.50	3.00▲
09:06 +8’	2.20▲	3.50	2.80▼
14:05 +4’	2.20	3.40▼	2.88▲
16:01 +9’	2.30▲	3.40	2.75▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
01:59 +21’	2.02	3.59	3.01
02:57 +21’	2.00▼	3.65▲	3.01
08:30 +44’	2.06▲	3.63▼	2.90▼
09:24 +51’	2.08▲	3.57▼	2.91▲
14:00 +8’	2.22▲	3.53▼	2.70▼
15:11 +59’	2.42▲	3.48▼	2.47▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 3.25

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

Our recommendation on this match 12 odds moves recorded

Go premium to see the odds journey

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Guabira 1–2–3 Oriente Petrolero

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Date	Home	Score	Away
04/10/26 Bolivia Copa Division Profesional	Guabira	2-1 HT 0-1	Oriente Petrolero
09/09/26 Bolivia Copa Division Profesional	Oriente Petrolero	1-0 HT 1-0	Guabira
15/05/26 Bolivia Primera Division	Oriente Petrolero	2-2 HT 1-1	Guabira
03/11/25 Bolivia Primera Division	Oriente Petrolero	4-0 HT 1-0	Guabira
17/07/25 Bolivia Copa Division Profesional	Guabira	1-2 HT 0-1	Oriente Petrolero
26/06/25 Bolivia Copa Division Profesional	Guabira	3-3 HT 2-0	Oriente Petrolero

Standings · Bolivia Primera Division

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Bolivar	21	15	3	3	55	22	48
2	Always Ready	21	14	6	1	49	13	48
3	The Strongest	21	12	6	3	39	23	42
4	Real Potosi	22	10	8	4	29	14	38
5	Oriente Petrolero	21	10	3	8	37	27	33
6	Club Aurora	22	7	10	5	33	30	31
7	Guabira	21	8	5	8	33	43	29
8	Nacional Potosi	21	8	4	9	32	30	28
9	Blooming	22	6	10	6	30	23	28
10	Real Oruro	22	8	3	11	36	51	27
11	Independiente Petrolero	22	7	5	10	27	37	26
12	Universitario De Vinto	22	6	3	13	29	43	21
13	San Antonio Bulo Bulo	22	6	3	13	22	42	21
14	Academia de Balompie Boliviano	22	6	2	14	31	47	20
15	Real Tomayapo	22	5	5	12	16	39	20
16	GV San Jose	22	3	8	11	25	39	17

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Guabira	Oriente Petrolero
GV San Jose	1-4 L	3-3 D
Always Ready	0-6 L	1-2 L
Real Potosi	1-1 D	1-2 L
Academia de Balompie Boliviano	1-0 W	1-0 W
Real Tomayapo	3-0 W	2-0 W
Universitario De Vinto	1-1 D	5-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 2 L	3 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Oriente Petrolero (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Guabira

DWWWDLDLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/10	GV San Jose Bolivia Primera Division	1-3	1-4	3	7	L
16/09	Club Aurora Bolivia Primera Division	2-1	3-1	1	5	W
13/09	Always Ready Bolivia Primera Division	0-5	0-6	0	1	L
05/09	Real Potosi Bolivia Primera Division	0-0	1-1	7	7	D
28/08	Independiente Petrolero Bolivia Primera Division	1-1	1-3	5	2	L
23/08	Blooming Bolivia Primera Division	0-0	1-1	6	9	D
15/08	The Strongest Bolivia Primera Division	1-0	3-1	6	4	W
07/08	Academia de Balompie Boliviano Bolivia Primera Division	0-0	1-0	2	2	W
05/08	Real Tomayapo Bolivia Primera Division	1-0	3-0	15	8	W
31/07	Universitario De Vinto Bolivia Primera Division	1-1	1-1	2	2	D

Oriente Petrolero

WLWWWDLLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	Academia de Balompie Boliviano Bolivia Primera Division	0-0	1-0	7	5	W
18/09	Real Tomayapo Bolivia Primera Division	2-0	2-0	5	4	W
12/09	Real Potosi Bolivia Primera Division	1-1	1-2	1	9	L
06/09	Always Ready Bolivia Primera Division	0-1	1-2	10	6	L
25/08	GV San Jose Bolivia Primera Division	1-1	3-3	4	9	D
22/08	San Antonio Bulo Bulo Bolivia Primera Division	1-0	4-0	3	5	W
15/08	Real Oruro Bolivia Primera Division	3-2	3-2	7	4	W
10/08	Universitario De Vinto Bolivia Primera Division	2-0	5-0	6	3	W
06/08	Bolivar Bolivia Primera Division	1-1	1-2	4	5	L
03/08	Nacional Potosi Bolivia Primera Division	0-0	1-0	4	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Guabira vs Oriente Petrolero?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Guabira win (47%). Probabilities: Guabira 47%, draw 25%, Oriente Petrolero 28%.

How many goals are expected in Guabira vs Oriente Petrolero?

The model expects 3.17 goals (Guabira 1.81 · Oriente Petrolero 1.36), with a 53% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Guabira vs Oriente Petrolero?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.