Football · Bolivia Primera Division · 25/10, 01:30

Prediction: Independiente Petrolero vs Academia de Balompie Boliviano

Team pages: Independiente Petrolero · Academia de Balompie Boliviano

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.96Total

Independiente Petrolero1.95

Academia de Balompie Boliviano1.01

1X2

58% 23% 18%

Independiente Petrolero Draw Academia de Balompie Boliviano

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Independiente Petrolero 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

DWWLWLLLLD

Academia de Balompie Boliviano 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

WLLDLWLLLL

Head-to-head

Independiente Petrolero 2–1 Academia de Balompie Boliviano (3 last)

Academia de Balompie Boliviano3-1Independiente Petrolero
Independiente Petrolero2-0Academia de Balompie Boliviano
Academia de Balompie Boliviano1-2Independiente Petrolero

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Independiente Petrolero 1509 · Academia de Balompie Boliviano 1432

	Independiente Petrolero	Draw	Academia de Balompie Boliviano
Our model	58%	24%	18%
Market	59%	23%	18%

Estimated total (ours) 2.96 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Independiente Petrolero (rating 1509 vs 1432).
H2H favours Independiente Petrolero: 2-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Independiente Petrolero	Academia de Balompie Boliviano
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 1.8	1.1 / 2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.9	0.5 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/30/50%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 3.3	1.8 / 3.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.5 / 0.6	3.9 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

11.57

X4.00

25.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)2.00

2 (+1)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 3.252.00

Under 3.251.80

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 2.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:55

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.57 → 1.57	Bet365 1.57
X	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
2	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.7%

Time*	1	X	2
14:50 +4’	1.57	4.00	5.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Independiente Petrolero 2–0–1 Academia de Balompie Boliviano

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Date	Home	Score	Away
16/07/26 Bolivia Primera Division	Academia de Balompie Boliviano	3-1 HT 1-0	Independiente Petrolero
22/11/25 Bolivia Primera Division	Independiente Petrolero	2-0 HT 1-0	Academia de Balompie Boliviano
29/07/25 Bolivia Primera Division	Academia de Balompie Boliviano	1-2 HT 0-2	Independiente Petrolero

Standings · Bolivia Primera Division

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Bolivar	22	16	3	3	56	22	51
2	Always Ready	22	14	6	2	50	15	48
3	The Strongest	22	13	6	3	41	24	45
4	Real Potosi	22	10	8	4	29	14	38
5	Oriente Petrolero	22	10	4	8	38	28	34
6	Club Aurora	22	7	10	5	33	30	31
7	Guabira	22	8	6	8	34	44	30
8	Nacional Potosi	22	8	4	10	32	31	28
9	Blooming	22	6	10	6	30	23	28
10	Real Oruro	22	8	3	11	36	51	27
11	Independiente Petrolero	22	7	5	10	27	37	26
12	Universitario De Vinto	22	6	3	13	29	43	21
13	San Antonio Bulo Bulo	22	6	3	13	22	42	21
14	Academia de Balompie Boliviano	22	6	2	14	31	47	20
15	Real Tomayapo	22	5	5	12	16	39	20
16	GV San Jose	22	3	8	11	25	39	17

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Independiente Petrolero	Academia de Balompie Boliviano
Blooming	0-0 D	1-6 L
Universitario De Vinto	1-3 L	2-0 W
Bolivar	0-4 L	1-4 L
Guabira	3-1 W	0-1 L
Nacional Potosi	0-3 L	0-2 L
GV San Jose	1-0 W	2-2 D
The Strongest	2-1 W	1-2 L
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 3 L	1 W 1 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: Independiente Petrolero (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Independiente Petrolero

DWWLWLLLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Blooming Bolivia Primera Division	0-0	0-0	2	2	D
12/10	Always Ready Bolivia Primera Division	0-1	0-2	6	4	L
19/09	San Antonio Bulo Bulo Bolivia Primera Division	0-2	1-3	7	0	L
13/09	Universitario De Vinto Bolivia Primera Division	1-1	1-3	3	6	L
06/09	Bolivar Bolivia Primera Division	0-2	0-4	0	6	L
28/08	Guabira Bolivia Primera Division	1-1	3-1	5	2	W
23/08	Nacional Potosi Bolivia Primera Division	0-1	0-3	5	2	L
17/08	GV San Jose Bolivia Primera Division	1-0	1-0	2	6	W
08/08	The Strongest Bolivia Primera Division	0-1	2-1	1	7	W
05/08	Club Aurora Bolivia Primera Division	1-0	1-1	2	6	D

Academia de Balompie Boliviano

WLLDLWLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/10	Real Potosi Bolivia Primera Division	0-1	0-1	4	6	L
11/10	Oriente Petrolero Bolivia Primera Division	0-0	0-1	1	5	L
15/09	The Strongest Bolivia Primera Division	1-0	1-2	2	9	L
13/09	Blooming Bolivia Primera Division	0-2	1-6	3	4	L
04/09	Universitario De Vinto Bolivia Primera Division	1-0	2-0	0	4	W
28/08	Bolivar Bolivia Primera Division	0-0	1-4	6	3	L
22/08	GV San Jose Bolivia Primera Division	2-0	2-2	3	6	D
16/08	Nacional Potosi Bolivia Primera Division	0-1	0-2	1	0	L
07/08	Guabira Bolivia Primera Division	0-0	0-1	9	2	L
04/08	Real Oruro Bolivia Primera Division	1-0	4-1	5	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Independiente Petrolero vs Academia de Balompie Boliviano?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Independiente Petrolero win (58%). Probabilities: Independiente Petrolero 58%, draw 23%, Academia de Balompie Boliviano 18%.

How many goals are expected in Independiente Petrolero vs Academia de Balompie Boliviano?

The model expects 2.96 goals (Independiente Petrolero 1.95 · Academia de Balompie Boliviano 1.01), with a 56% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Independiente Petrolero vs Academia de Balompie Boliviano?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.