Football · Bolivia Primera Division · 27/10, 01:00
Prediction: Bolivar vs Universitario De Vinto
Team pages: Bolivar · Universitario De Vinto
Prediction summary
Expected goals
4.39Total
Bolivar3.2
Universitario De Vinto1.2
1X2
Bolivar
Draw
Universitario De Vinto
Markets
Under 4.5 goals 56%
Both teams to score 59%
Most likely score
3-1 8%
Recent form · 10 last
Bolivar
10-0-0 (W-D-L)
Universitario De Vinto
3-1-6 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Bolivar
4–1–1
Universitario De Vinto
(6 last)
- Universitario De Vinto3-2Bolivar
- Bolivar3-0Universitario De Vinto
- Universitario De Vinto1-1Bolivar
- Bolivar3-2Universitario De Vinto
- Universitario De Vinto1-2Bolivar
- Bolivar5-1Universitario De Vinto
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Bolivar 1630 · Universitario De Vinto 1448
| Bolivar | Draw | Universitario De Vinto | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 76% | 14% | 10% |
| Market | 89% | 8% | 4% |
Estimated total (ours)
4.39 goals · Bet365 line 4.25
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 79%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Bolivar (rating 1630 vs 1448).
- H2H favours Bolivar: 4-1-1.
- High corners: 13.4 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 9.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Bolivar | Universitario De Vinto | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 3 / 1 | 1.2 / 2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.3 / 0.3 | 0.7 / 0.9 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 60/40/0% | 30/30/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3 / 6.4 | 3.5 / 7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.6 / 0.3 | 4.9 / 0.4 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Bolivar 4–1–1 Universitario De Vinto
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16/05/26 Bolivia Primera Division | Universitario De Vinto | 3-2 HT 2-1 | Bolivar |
| 03/11/25 Bolivia Primera Division | Bolivar | 3-0 HT 0-0 | Universitario De Vinto |
| 24/05/25 Bolivia Primera Division | Universitario De Vinto | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Bolivar |
| 11/03/25 America Friendlies | Bolivar | 3-2 HT 1-0 | Universitario De Vinto |
| 08/03/25 America Friendlies | Universitario De Vinto | 1-2 HT 1-1 | Bolivar |
| 14/12/24 Bolivia Clausura | Bolivar | 5-1 HT 3-0 | Universitario De Vinto |
Standings · Bolivia Primera Division
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bolivar | 22 | 16 | 3 | 3 | 56 | 22 | 51 |
| 2 | Always Ready | 22 | 14 | 6 | 2 | 50 | 15 | 48 |
| 3 | The Strongest | 22 | 13 | 6 | 3 | 41 | 24 | 45 |
| 4 | Real Potosi | 23 | 10 | 8 | 5 | 30 | 16 | 38 |
| 5 | Oriente Petrolero | 22 | 10 | 4 | 8 | 38 | 28 | 34 |
| 6 | Club Aurora | 22 | 7 | 10 | 5 | 33 | 30 | 31 |
| 7 | Guabira | 22 | 8 | 6 | 8 | 34 | 44 | 30 |
| 8 | Independiente Petrolero | 23 | 8 | 5 | 10 | 31 | 39 | 29 |
| 9 | Nacional Potosi | 22 | 8 | 4 | 10 | 32 | 31 | 28 |
| 10 | Blooming | 23 | 6 | 10 | 7 | 31 | 25 | 28 |
| 11 | Real Oruro | 22 | 8 | 3 | 11 | 36 | 51 | 27 |
| 12 | San Antonio Bulo Bulo | 23 | 7 | 3 | 13 | 24 | 43 | 24 |
| 13 | Universitario De Vinto | 22 | 6 | 3 | 13 | 29 | 43 | 21 |
| 14 | Academia de Balompie Boliviano | 23 | 6 | 2 | 15 | 33 | 51 | 20 |
| 15 | Real Tomayapo | 22 | 5 | 5 | 12 | 16 | 39 | 20 |
| 16 | GV San Jose | 23 | 4 | 8 | 11 | 27 | 40 | 20 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Bolivar | Universitario De Vinto |
|---|---|---|
| Nacional Potosi | 1-0 W | 2-0 W |
| Blooming | 1-0 W | 1-1 D |
| Real Tomayapo | 2-1 W | 0-1 L |
| Independiente Petrolero | 4-0 W | 3-1 W |
| Academia de Balompie Boliviano | 4-1 W | 0-2 L |
| Real Oruro | 4-2 W | 1-3 L |
| San Antonio Bulo Bulo | 4-1 W | 2-1 W |
| Oriente Petrolero | 2-1 W | 0-5 L |
| Record vs common | 8 W 0 D 0 L | 3 W 1 D 4 L |
Better against common opponents: Bolivar (7 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Bolivar
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/10 | Nacional Potosi Bolivia Primera Division |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 12/10 | Blooming Bolivia Primera Division |
1-0 | 1-0 | 9 | 6 | W |
| 18/09 | GV San Jose Bolivia Primera Division |
3-0 | 4-2 | 10 | 5 | W |
| 14/09 | Real Tomayapo Bolivia Primera Division |
1-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 06/09 | Independiente Petrolero Bolivia Primera Division |
2-0 | 4-0 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 28/08 | Academia de Balompie Boliviano Bolivia Primera Division |
0-0 | 4-1 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 23/08 | Real Oruro Bolivia Primera Division |
2-0 | 4-2 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 15/08 | San Antonio Bulo Bulo Bolivia Primera Division |
2-1 | 4-1 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 09/08 | Club Aurora Bolivia Primera Division |
1-1 | 4-2 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 06/08 | Oriente Petrolero Bolivia Primera Division |
1-1 | 2-1 | 13 | 5 | W |
Universitario De Vinto
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/10 | San Antonio Bulo Bulo Bolivia Primera Division |
2-0 | 2-1 | 1 | 7 | W |
| 10/10 | Real Oruro Bolivia Primera Division |
0-2 | 1-3 | 20 | 7 | L |
| 17/09 | Blooming Bolivia Primera Division |
1-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 9 | D |
| 13/09 | Independiente Petrolero Bolivia Primera Division |
1-1 | 3-1 | 7 | 6 | W |
| 04/09 | Academia de Balompie Boliviano Bolivia Primera Division |
0-1 | 0-2 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 26/08 | Nacional Potosi Bolivia Primera Division |
1-0 | 2-0 | 8 | 4 | W |
| 22/08 | The Strongest Bolivia Primera Division |
2-2 | 3-4 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 14/08 | Real Tomayapo Bolivia Primera Division |
0-0 | 0-1 | 10 | 2 | L |
| 10/08 | Oriente Petrolero Bolivia Primera Division |
0-2 | 0-5 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 06/08 | Real Potosi Bolivia Primera Division |
0-1 | 0-2 | 7 | 6 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Bolivar vs Universitario De Vinto?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Bolivar win (83%). Probabilities: Bolivar 83%, draw 11%, Universitario De Vinto 7%.
How many goals are expected in Bolivar vs Universitario De Vinto?
The model expects 4.39 goals (Bolivar 3.2 · Universitario De Vinto 1.2), with a 51% chance of over 4.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Bolivar vs Universitario De Vinto?
The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 3-1.