Football · Bolivia Primera Division · 26/10, 23:00

Prediction: Nacional Potosi vs Guabira

Team pages: Nacional Potosi · Guabira

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.35Total

Nacional Potosi2.32

Guabira1.03

1X2

66% 19% 15%

Nacional Potosi Draw Guabira

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

2-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Nacional Potosi 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

LLWWLWWLDL

Guabira 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WWWDLDLWLD

Head-to-head

Nacional Potosi 2–1–3 Guabira (6 last)

Guabira2-1Nacional Potosi
Guabira1-0Nacional Potosi
Nacional Potosi3-0Guabira
Nacional Potosi3-0Guabira
Guabira1-1Nacional Potosi
Guabira6-1Nacional Potosi

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Nacional Potosi 1515 · Guabira 1507

	Nacional Potosi	Draw	Guabira
Our model	65%	20%	15%
Market	66%	19%	15%

Estimated total (ours) 3.35 goals · Bet365 line 3.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 70%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Guabira: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Nacional Potosi	Guabira
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.5	1.5 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.6	0.6 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/20/30%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 5.2	2.2 / 4.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.3 / 0.1	4.7 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

11.40

X5.00

26.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.5)2.00

2 (+1.5)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.98

Under 3.51.82

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 3.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:36

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.40 → 1.40	Bet365 1.40
X	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00
2	6.00 → 6.00	Bet365 6.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.1%

Time*	1	X	2
12:32 +4’	1.40	5.00	6.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Nacional Potosi 2–1–3 Guabira

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/05/26 Bolivia Primera Division	Guabira	2-1 HT 0-1	Nacional Potosi
24/08/25 Bolivia Primera Division	Guabira	1-0 HT 0-0	Nacional Potosi
14/04/25 Bolivia Primera Division	Nacional Potosi	3-0 HT 0-0	Guabira
25/10/24 Bolivia Clausura	Nacional Potosi	3-0 HT 0-0	Guabira
26/05/24 Bolivia Clausura	Guabira	1-1 HT 1-0	Nacional Potosi
25/11/23 Bolivia Clausura	Guabira	6-1 HT 4-1	Nacional Potosi

Standings · Bolivia Primera Division

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Bolivar	22	16	3	3	56	22	51
2	Always Ready	22	14	6	2	50	15	48
3	The Strongest	22	13	6	3	41	24	45
4	Real Potosi	23	10	8	5	30	16	38
5	Oriente Petrolero	22	10	4	8	38	28	34
6	Club Aurora	22	7	10	5	33	30	31
7	Guabira	22	8	6	8	34	44	30
8	Independiente Petrolero	23	8	5	10	31	39	29
9	Nacional Potosi	22	8	4	10	32	31	28
10	Blooming	23	6	10	7	31	25	28
11	Real Oruro	22	8	3	11	36	51	27
12	San Antonio Bulo Bulo	23	7	3	13	24	43	24
13	Universitario De Vinto	22	6	3	13	29	43	21
14	Academia de Balompie Boliviano	23	6	2	15	33	51	20
15	Real Tomayapo	22	5	5	12	16	39	20
16	GV San Jose	23	4	8	11	27	40	20

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Nacional Potosi	Guabira
Club Aurora	2-2 D	3-1 W
Always Ready	0-4 L	0-6 L
GV San Jose	3-0 W	1-4 L
Blooming	2-1 W	1-1 D
Independiente Petrolero	3-0 W	1-3 L
Academia de Balompie Boliviano	2-0 W	1-0 W
The Strongest	2-3 L	3-1 W
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 2 L	3 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Nacional Potosi (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Nacional Potosi

LLWWLWWLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Bolivar Bolivia Primera Division	0-0	0-1	5	6	L
11/10	Club Aurora Bolivia Primera Division	2-1	2-2	4	5	D
17/09	Always Ready Bolivia Primera Division	0-1	0-4	8	4	L
12/09	GV San Jose Bolivia Primera Division	1-0	3-0	6	1	W
07/09	Blooming Bolivia Primera Division	1-1	2-1	7	5	W
26/08	Universitario De Vinto Bolivia Primera Division	0-1	0-2	6	4	L
23/08	Independiente Petrolero Bolivia Primera Division	1-0	3-0	7	2	W
16/08	Academia de Balompie Boliviano Bolivia Primera Division	1-0	2-0	3	0	W
08/08	San Antonio Bulo Bulo Bolivia Primera Division	0-1	1-2	3	3	L
06/08	The Strongest Bolivia Primera Division	2-1	2-3	3	4	L

Guabira

WWWDLDLWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/10	Oriente Petrolero Bolivia Primera Division	0-1	1-1	4	7	D
12/10	GV San Jose Bolivia Primera Division	1-3	1-4	3	7	L
16/09	Club Aurora Bolivia Primera Division	2-1	3-1	1	5	W
13/09	Always Ready Bolivia Primera Division	0-5	0-6	0	1	L
05/09	Real Potosi Bolivia Primera Division	0-0	1-1	7	7	D
28/08	Independiente Petrolero Bolivia Primera Division	1-1	1-3	5	2	L
23/08	Blooming Bolivia Primera Division	0-0	1-1	6	9	D
15/08	The Strongest Bolivia Primera Division	1-0	3-1	6	4	W
07/08	Academia de Balompie Boliviano Bolivia Primera Division	0-0	1-0	2	2	W
05/08	Real Tomayapo Bolivia Primera Division	1-0	3-0	15	8	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Nacional Potosi vs Guabira?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Nacional Potosi win (66%). Probabilities: Nacional Potosi 66%, draw 19%, Guabira 15%.

How many goals are expected in Nacional Potosi vs Guabira?

The model expects 3.35 goals (Nacional Potosi 2.32 · Guabira 1.03), with a 54% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Nacional Potosi vs Guabira?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.