Football · Bolivia Primera Division · 18/10, 21:00

Prediction: Nacional Potosi vs Bolivar

Team pages: Nacional Potosi · Bolivar

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.46Total

Nacional Potosi1.39

Bolivar2.07

1X2

24% 23% 52%

Nacional Potosi Draw Bolivar

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Nacional Potosi 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

LLLWWLWWLD

Bolivar 9-0-1 (W-D-L)

LWWWWWWWWW

Head-to-head

Nacional Potosi 1–2–3 Bolivar (6 last)

Bolivar1-1Nacional Potosi
Bolivar1-4Nacional Potosi
Nacional Potosi0-2Bolivar
Bolivar5-2Nacional Potosi
Bolivar2-1Nacional Potosi
Nacional Potosi1-1Bolivar

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Nacional Potosi 1537 · Bolivar 1629

	Nacional Potosi	Draw	Bolivar
Our model	25%	23%	52%
Market	24%	23%	52%

Estimated total (ours) 3.46 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Bolivar (rating 1537 vs 1629).
H2H favours Bolivar: 3-2-1.
High corners: 11.4 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Nacional Potosi	Bolivar
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.5	2.9 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.6	1.3 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/20/30%	60/40/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 5	2.9 / 6.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.1 / 0.1	4.6 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

13.75

X3.90

21.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)1.82

2 (-0.75)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.95

Under 3.251.85

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 3.5

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 22:30

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.10 → 3.75▼	Pinn 4.00 ★
X	4.00 → 3.90▼	Pinn 3.96
2	1.67 → 1.75▲	Bet365 1.75

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 9.5% Pinnacle margin 10.6%

Time*	1	X	2
21:05 +3’	4.10	4.00	1.67
22:16 +15’	3.75▼	3.90▼	1.75▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
21:16 +26’	3.53	3.74	1.80
09:00 +13’	3.52▼	3.83▲	1.78▼
10:11 +3’	4.01▲	4.01▲	1.65▼
14:25 +98’	4.00▼	3.96▼	1.66▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Nacional Potosi 1–2–3 Bolivar

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/05/26 Bolivia Primera Division	Bolivar	1-1 HT 0-1	Nacional Potosi
23/12/25 Bolivia Copa Division Profesional	Bolivar	1-4 HT 1-2	Nacional Potosi
20/12/25 Bolivia Copa Division Profesional	Nacional Potosi	0-2 HT 0-2	Bolivar
05/12/25 Bolivia Primera Division	Bolivar	5-2 HT 3-1	Nacional Potosi
11/07/25 Bolivia Copa Division Profesional	Bolivar	2-1 HT 1-1	Nacional Potosi
29/06/25 Bolivia Primera Division	Nacional Potosi	1-1 HT 0-1	Bolivar

Standings · Bolivia Primera Division

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Bolivar	21	15	3	3	55	22	48
2	Always Ready	21	14	6	1	49	13	48
3	The Strongest	21	12	6	3	39	23	42
4	Real Potosi	22	10	8	4	29	14	38
5	Oriente Petrolero	21	10	3	8	37	27	33
6	Club Aurora	22	7	10	5	33	30	31
7	Guabira	21	8	5	8	33	43	29
8	Nacional Potosi	21	8	4	9	32	30	28
9	Blooming	22	6	10	6	30	23	28
10	Real Oruro	22	8	3	11	36	51	27
11	Independiente Petrolero	22	7	5	10	27	37	26
12	Universitario De Vinto	22	6	3	13	29	43	21
13	San Antonio Bulo Bulo	22	6	3	13	22	42	21
14	Academia de Balompie Boliviano	22	6	2	14	31	47	20
15	Real Tomayapo	22	5	5	12	16	39	20
16	GV San Jose	22	3	8	11	25	39	17

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Nacional Potosi	Bolivar
Club Aurora	2-2 D	4-2 W
Always Ready	0-4 L	0-1 L
GV San Jose	3-0 W	4-2 W
Blooming	2-1 W	1-0 W
Independiente Petrolero	3-0 W	4-0 W
Academia de Balompie Boliviano	2-0 W	4-1 W
San Antonio Bulo Bulo	1-2 L	4-1 W
Oriente Petrolero	0-1 L	2-1 W
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 3 L	7 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Bolivar (6 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Nacional Potosi

LLLWWLWWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	Club Aurora Bolivia Primera Division	2-1	2-2	4	5	D
17/09	Always Ready Bolivia Primera Division	0-1	0-4	8	4	L
12/09	GV San Jose Bolivia Primera Division	1-0	3-0	6	1	W
07/09	Blooming Bolivia Primera Division	1-1	2-1	7	5	W
26/08	Universitario De Vinto Bolivia Primera Division	0-1	0-2	6	4	L
23/08	Independiente Petrolero Bolivia Primera Division	1-0	3-0	7	2	W
16/08	Academia de Balompie Boliviano Bolivia Primera Division	1-0	2-0	3	0	W
08/08	San Antonio Bulo Bulo Bolivia Primera Division	0-1	1-2	3	3	L
06/08	The Strongest Bolivia Primera Division	2-1	2-3	3	4	L
03/08	Oriente Petrolero Bolivia Primera Division	0-0	0-1	3	4	L

Bolivar

LWWWWWWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/10	Blooming Bolivia Primera Division	1-0	1-0	9	6	W
18/09	GV San Jose Bolivia Primera Division	3-0	4-2	10	5	W
14/09	Real Tomayapo Bolivia Primera Division	1-0	2-1	3	4	W
06/09	Independiente Petrolero Bolivia Primera Division	2-0	4-0	4	6	W
28/08	Academia de Balompie Boliviano Bolivia Primera Division	0-0	4-1	5	3	W
23/08	Real Oruro Bolivia Primera Division	2-0	4-2	6	5	W
15/08	San Antonio Bulo Bulo Bolivia Primera Division	2-1	4-1	6	3	W
09/08	Club Aurora Bolivia Primera Division	1-1	4-2	4	6	W
06/08	Oriente Petrolero Bolivia Primera Division	1-1	2-1	13	5	W
02/08	Always Ready Bolivia Primera Division	0-0	0-1	4	6	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Nacional Potosi vs Bolivar?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Bolivar win (52%). Probabilities: Nacional Potosi 24%, draw 23%, Bolivar 52%.

How many goals are expected in Nacional Potosi vs Bolivar?

The model expects 3.46 goals (Nacional Potosi 1.39 · Bolivar 2.07), with a 50% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Nacional Potosi vs Bolivar?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.