Football · Poland III Liga · 14/11, 12:00

Prediction: KTS-K Luzino vs Flota Swinoujscie

Team pages: KTS-K Luzino · Flota Swinoujscie

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.8Total

KTS-K Luzino2.59

Flota Swinoujscie1.21

1X2

66% 19% 15%

KTS-K Luzino Draw Flota Swinoujscie

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

2-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

KTS-K Luzino 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

WWWWLWLLLD

Flota Swinoujscie 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

WDLLLLLDLW

Head-to-head

KTS-K Luzino 2–2 Flota Swinoujscie (4 last)

KTS-K Luzino2-0Flota Swinoujscie
Flota Swinoujscie3-1KTS-K Luzino
Flota Swinoujscie1-4KTS-K Luzino
KTS-K Luzino1-3Flota Swinoujscie

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · KTS-K Luzino 1518 · Flota Swinoujscie 1445

	KTS-K Luzino	Draw	Flota Swinoujscie
Our model	66%	19%	15%
Market	66%	19%	15%

Estimated total (ours) 3.8 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 70%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours KTS-K Luzino (rating 1518 vs 1445).
High corners: 11.9 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	KTS-K Luzino	Flota Swinoujscie
Goals for / against (FT)	2.5 / 1.8	0.8 / 2.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 1.1	0.1 / 1.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/10/60%	0/50/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	3 / 6.6	2.1 / 5.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.8 / 0.1	3.9 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.36

X4.75

26.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.5)1.90

2 (+1.5)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.90

Under 3.51.90

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 3.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:05

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.36 → 1.36	Bet365 1.36
X	4.75 → 4.75	Bet365 4.75
2	6.00 → 6.00	Bet365 6.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
16:42 +23’	1.36	4.75	6.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · KTS-K Luzino 2–0–2 Flota Swinoujscie

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Date	Home	Score	Away
06/03/26 Poland III Liga	KTS-K Luzino	2-0 HT 2-0	Flota Swinoujscie
23/08/25 Poland III Liga	Flota Swinoujscie	3-1 HT 0-1	KTS-K Luzino
27/04/24 Poland III Liga	Flota Swinoujscie	1-4 HT 0-1	KTS-K Luzino
30/09/23 Poland III Liga	KTS-K Luzino	1-3 HT 1-1	Flota Swinoujscie

Standings · Poland III Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Chelmianka Chelm	16	12	4	0	27	7	40
2	KSZO Ostrowiec	16	8	5	3	27	14	29
3	Hetman Zamosc	16	8	5	3	32	24	29
4	Wisloka Debica	16	9	2	5	25	21	29
5	Czarni Polaniec	16	8	4	4	25	22	28
6	Naprzod Jedrzejow	16	8	3	5	33	31	27
7	Wisla Krakow II	16	7	4	5	21	20	25
8	Wislanie Jaskowice	16	7	3	6	24	18	24
9	Star Starachowice	16	6	5	5	27	24	23
10	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	16	7	2	7	25	22	23
11	Wieczysta Krakow II	16	5	4	7	16	19	19
12	JKS Jaroslaw	16	5	3	8	32	30	18
13	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj	16	5	2	9	22	36	17
14	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna	16	3	7	6	16	20	16
15	Korona Kielce II	16	4	3	9	31	37	15
16	Podlasie Biala Podlaska	16	3	4	9	12	27	13
17	Moravia Morawica	16	3	3	10	19	29	12
18	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	16	3	3	10	19	32	12

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	KTS-K Luzino	Flota Swinoujscie
Polonia Sroda Wlkp	2-5 L	1-0 W
Lech Poznan II	2-4 L	1-8 L
Kluczevia Stargard	2-3 L	2-2 D
Wda Swiecie	3-0 W	0-1 L
Elana Torun	1-3 L	0-1 L
Notec Czarnkow	2-0 W	0-3 L
Unia Swarzedz	3-1 W	0-2 L
Grom Nowy Staw	5-1 W	0-5 L
Gedania Gdansk	4-0 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	5 W 0 D 4 L	1 W 2 D 6 L

Better against common opponents: KTS-K Luzino (6 of 9 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

KTS-K Luzino

WWWWLWLLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	KKS 1925 Kalisz Poland III Liga	0-1	1-1	4	4	D
31/10	Polonia Sroda Wlkp Poland III Liga	1-3	2-5	10	2	L
24/10	Lech Poznan II Poland III Liga	0-3	2-4	7	3	L
17/10	Kluczevia Stargard Poland III Liga	1-2	2-3	13	4	L
10/10	Wda Swiecie Poland III Liga	1-0	3-0	8	2	W
03/10	Elana Torun Poland III Liga	0-1	1-3	2	7	L
26/09	Notec Czarnkow Poland III Liga	0-0	2-0	8	8	W
19/09	Unia Swarzedz Poland III Liga	0-1	3-1	4	5	W
11/09	Grom Nowy Staw Poland III Liga	2-0	5-1	2	0	W
05/09	Gedania Gdansk Poland III Liga	1-0	4-0	8	4	W

Flota Swinoujscie

WDLLLLLDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Polonia Sroda Wlkp Poland III Liga	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
31/10	Lech Poznan II Poland III Liga	0-3	1-8	5	2	L
24/10	Kluczevia Stargard Poland III Liga	0-2	2-2	2	6	D
18/10	Wda Swiecie Poland III Liga	0-0	0-1	7	3	L
09/10	Elana Torun Poland III Liga	0-0	0-1	6	4	L
03/10	Notec Czarnkow Poland III Liga	0-1	0-3	–	–	L
26/09	Unia Swarzedz Poland III Liga	0-1	0-2	9	2	L
19/09	Grom Nowy Staw Poland III Liga	0-5	0-5	4	5	L
12/09	Gedania Gdansk Poland III Liga	0-0	1-1	–	–	D
05/09	Lipno Steszew Poland III Liga	1-1	3-1	4	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in KTS-K Luzino vs Flota Swinoujscie?

According to our model, the most likely result is a KTS-K Luzino win (66%). Probabilities: KTS-K Luzino 66%, draw 19%, Flota Swinoujscie 15%.

How many goals are expected in KTS-K Luzino vs Flota Swinoujscie?

The model expects 3.8 goals (KTS-K Luzino 2.59 · Flota Swinoujscie 1.21), with a 51% chance of over 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in KTS-K Luzino vs Flota Swinoujscie?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.