Football · Poland III Liga · 13/11, 19:00

Prediction: Polonia Nysa vs Gornik Polkowice

Team pages: Polonia Nysa · Gornik Polkowice

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.06Total

Polonia Nysa1.32

Gornik Polkowice1.74

1X2

29% 25% 47%

Polonia Nysa Draw Gornik Polkowice

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 63% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Polonia Nysa 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

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Gornik Polkowice 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

WLLLDWLWDL

Head-to-head

Polonia Nysa 0–2 Gornik Polkowice (2 last)

Polonia Nysa1-2Gornik Polkowice
Gornik Polkowice1-0Polonia Nysa

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Polonia Nysa 1441 · Gornik Polkowice 1483

	Polonia Nysa	Draw	Gornik Polkowice
Our model	28%	26%	46%
Market	29%	24%	47%

Estimated total (ours) 3.06 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Gornik Polkowice (rating 1441 vs 1483).
H2H favours Gornik Polkowice: 2-0-0.
High corners: 13.7 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Polonia Nysa	Gornik Polkowice
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 1.9	1.5 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.6	0.7 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	40/20/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 5.8	4.6 / 7.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.6 / 0	3.5 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

13.10

X3.75

21.91

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.82

2 (-0.5)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 31.85

Under 31.95

Diff.: 0 · xG: 3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:04

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
X	3.75 → 3.75	Bet365 3.75
2	1.91 → 1.91	Bet365 1.91

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
14:03	3.10	3.75	1.91

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Polonia Nysa 0–0–2 Gornik Polkowice

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Date	Home	Score	Away
01/04/26 Poland III Liga	Polonia Nysa	1-2 HT 0-1	Gornik Polkowice
08/08/25 Poland III Liga	Gornik Polkowice	1-0 HT 0-0	Polonia Nysa

Standings · Poland III Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Chelmianka Chelm	16	12	4	0	27	7	40
2	KSZO Ostrowiec	16	8	5	3	27	14	29
3	Hetman Zamosc	16	8	5	3	32	24	29
4	Wisloka Debica	16	9	2	5	25	21	29
5	Czarni Polaniec	16	8	4	4	25	22	28
6	Naprzod Jedrzejow	16	8	3	5	33	31	27
7	Wisla Krakow II	16	7	4	5	21	20	25
8	Wislanie Jaskowice	16	7	3	6	24	18	24
9	Star Starachowice	16	6	5	5	27	24	23
10	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	16	7	2	7	25	22	23
11	Wieczysta Krakow II	16	5	4	7	16	19	19
12	JKS Jaroslaw	16	5	3	8	32	30	18
13	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj	16	5	2	9	22	36	17
14	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna	16	3	7	6	16	20	16
15	Korona Kielce II	16	4	3	9	31	37	15
16	Podlasie Biala Podlaska	16	3	4	9	12	27	13
17	Moravia Morawica	16	3	3	10	19	29	12
18	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	16	3	3	10	19	32	12

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Polonia Nysa	Gornik Polkowice
Carina Gubin	0-0 D	2-1 W
Zaglebie Sosnowiec	1-2 L	1-2 L
Sparta Katowice	0-4 L	0-4 L
Sleza Wroclaw	1-3 L	2-2 D
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 3 L	1 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Gornik Polkowice (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Polonia Nysa

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Carina Gubin Poland III Liga	0-0	0-0	5	7	D
24/10	ROW 1964 Rybnik Poland III Liga	0-2	0-3	–	–	L
16/10	Karkonosze Jelenia Gora Poland III Liga	0-0	2-2	13	6	D
10/10	Warta Gorzow Poland III Liga	1-0	1-0	5	7	W
02/10	Miedz Legnica II Poland III Liga	0-1	1-2	6	4	L
26/09	MKS Kluczbork Poland III Liga	1-0	3-1	–	–	W
18/09	Rakow Czestochowa II Poland III Liga	0-0	0-2	–	–	L
12/09	Zaglebie Sosnowiec Poland III Liga	0-1	1-2	–	–	L
05/09	Sparta Katowice Poland III Liga	0-1	0-4	0	4	L
29/08	Sleza Wroclaw Poland III Liga	1-1	1-3	–	–	L

Gornik Polkowice

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Sparta Katowice Poland III Liga	0-3	0-4	5	6	L
30/10	Sleza Wroclaw Poland III Liga	1-0	2-2	–	–	D
24/10	LKS Goczalkowice Zdroj Poland III Liga	2-0	4-1	11	3	W
17/10	Stal Brzeg Poland III Liga	0-1	0-2	–	–	L
09/10	KS Stilon Gorzow Poland III Liga	2-0	4-1	9	3	W
02/10	Zaglebie Lubin II Poland III Liga	1-0	1-1	9	4	D
26/09	Odra Bytom Odrzanski Poland III Liga	0-0	0-1	12	5	L
18/09	Zaglebie Sosnowiec Poland III Liga	0-1	1-2	8	4	L
12/09	Barycz Sulow Poland III Liga	0-2	1-2	3	2	L
06/09	Carina Gubin Poland III Liga	1-1	2-1	6	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Polonia Nysa vs Gornik Polkowice?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Gornik Polkowice win (47%). Probabilities: Polonia Nysa 29%, draw 25%, Gornik Polkowice 47%.

How many goals are expected in Polonia Nysa vs Gornik Polkowice?

The model expects 3.06 goals (Polonia Nysa 1.32 · Gornik Polkowice 1.74), with a 50% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Polonia Nysa vs Gornik Polkowice?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.