Football · Poland III Liga · 14/11, 12:00

Prediction: LKS Lodz II vs Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki

Team pages: LKS Lodz II · Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.86Total

LKS Lodz II1.81

Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki2.05

1X2

34% 23% 43%

LKS Lodz II Draw Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 61%

Most likely score

1-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

LKS Lodz II 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

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Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

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Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · LKS Lodz II 1540 · Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki 1525

	LKS Lodz II	Draw	Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki
Our model	34%	23%	43%
Market	33%	24%	43%

Estimated total (ours) 3.86 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 77%model estimate

Match keys

High corners: 14.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	LKS Lodz II	Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 1.6	2.4 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	1.2 / 1	0.8 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/30/20%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.1 / 6.2	4 / 8.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0.4	3.5 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.70

X3.75

22.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.88

2 (-0.25)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.95

Under 3.251.85

Diff.: 0.65 · xG: 3.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:05

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.70 → 2.70	Bet365 2.70
X	3.75 → 3.75	Bet365 3.75
2	2.10 → 2.10	Bet365 2.10

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
16:48 +17’	2.70	3.75	2.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · Poland III Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Chelmianka Chelm	16	12	4	0	27	7	40
2	KSZO Ostrowiec	16	8	5	3	27	14	29
3	Hetman Zamosc	16	8	5	3	32	24	29
4	Wisloka Debica	16	9	2	5	25	21	29
5	Czarni Polaniec	16	8	4	4	25	22	28
6	Naprzod Jedrzejow	16	8	3	5	33	31	27
7	Wisla Krakow II	16	7	4	5	21	20	25
8	Wislanie Jaskowice	16	7	3	6	24	18	24
9	Star Starachowice	16	6	5	5	27	24	23
10	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	16	7	2	7	25	22	23
11	Wieczysta Krakow II	16	5	4	7	16	19	19
12	JKS Jaroslaw	16	5	3	8	32	30	18
13	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj	16	5	2	9	22	36	17
14	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna	16	3	7	6	16	20	16
15	Korona Kielce II	16	4	3	9	31	37	15
16	Podlasie Biala Podlaska	16	3	4	9	12	27	13
17	Moravia Morawica	16	3	3	10	19	29	12
18	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	16	3	3	10	19	32	12

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	LKS Lodz II	Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki
Widzew Lodz II	1-0 W	3-2 W
Olimpia Zambrow	3-2 W	5-0 W
Wisla Plock II	2-2 D	3-2 W
Mlawianka Mlawa	2-0 W	3-1 W
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 0 L	4 W 0 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

LKS Lodz II

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	Widzew Lodz II Poland III Liga	1-0	1-0	4	3	W
31/10	Olimpia Zambrow Poland III Liga	3-0	3-2	9	4	W
24/10	Polonia Lidzbark Poland III Liga	0-2	0-3	11	5	L
17/10	Olimpia Elblag Poland III Liga	1-1	1-1	5	5	D
14/10	Zabkovia Zabki Poland III Liga	0-3	0-3	6	5	L
10/10	MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki Poland III Liga	2-1	7-2	6	1	W
26/09	CK Troszyn Poland III Liga	1-1	1-1	–	–	D
19/09	Jagiellonia Bialystok II Poland III Liga	1-1	3-2	3	5	W
12/09	Wisla Plock II Poland III Liga	2-1	2-2	8	7	D
06/09	Mlawianka Mlawa Poland III Liga	1-0	2-0	4	5	W

Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Mlawianka Mlawa Poland III Liga	1-1	3-1	4	3	W
31/10	LKS Lomza Poland III Liga	1-1	3-2	6	3	W
24/10	Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki Poland III Liga	2-0	3-1	4	6	W
18/10	KTS Weszlo Poland III Liga	0-2	2-3	10	4	L
10/10	Pelikan Lowicz Poland III Liga	1-2	1-4	8	4	L
03/10	Warta Sieradz Poland III Liga	0-0	1-1	10	5	D
26/09	Wigry Suwalki Poland III Liga	0-1	0-2	11	3	L
19/09	Wisla Plock II Poland III Liga	1-1	3-2	4	5	W
11/09	Widzew Lodz II Poland III Liga	0-1	3-2	9	2	W
05/09	Olimpia Zambrow Poland III Liga	2-0	5-0	17	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in LKS Lodz II vs Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki win (43%). Probabilities: LKS Lodz II 34%, draw 23%, Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki 43%.

How many goals are expected in LKS Lodz II vs Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki?

The model expects 3.86 goals (LKS Lodz II 1.81 · Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki 2.05), with a 54% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in LKS Lodz II vs Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki?

The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.