Football · Jamaica Premier League · 04/10, 22:30
Prediction: Mount Pleasant FA vs Cavalier
Team pages: Mount Pleasant FA · Cavalier
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.59Total
Mount Pleasant FA1.57
Cavalier1.02
1X2
Mount Pleasant FA
Draw
Cavalier
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 52%
Both teams to score 53%
Most likely score
1-1 13%
Recent form · 10 last
Mount Pleasant FA
7-0-3 (W-D-L)
Cavalier
7-2-1 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Mount Pleasant FA
4–1–1
Cavalier
(6 last)
- Mount Pleasant FA1-0Cavalier
- Cavalier1-3Mount Pleasant FA
- Cavalier0-1Mount Pleasant FA
- Mount Pleasant FA2-1Cavalier
- Cavalier0-0Mount Pleasant FA
- Cavalier2-1Mount Pleasant FA
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Mount Pleasant FA 1591 · Cavalier 1520
| Mount Pleasant FA | Draw | Cavalier | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 49% | 28% | 23% |
| Market | 50% | 26% | 24% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.59 goals · Bet365 line 2.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Mount Pleasant FA (rating 1591 vs 1520).
- H2H favours Mount Pleasant FA: 4-1-1.
- Cards-heavy: 7.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Mount Pleasant FA | Cavalier | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.1 / 1.3 | 1.8 / 0.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.9 / 0.7 | 0.7 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/30/20% | 30/50/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.6 / 4.4 | 2.1 / 5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4 / 0.2 | 3.7 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Mount Pleasant FA 4–1–1 Cavalier
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18/09/26 CONCACAF Caribbean Cup | Mount Pleasant FA | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Cavalier |
| 09/04/26 Jamaica Premier League | Cavalier | 1-3 HT 1-0 | Mount Pleasant FA |
| 04/02/26 Jamaica Premier League | Cavalier | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Mount Pleasant FA |
| 14/09/25 Jamaica Premier League | Mount Pleasant FA | 2-1 HT 0-1 | Cavalier |
| 24/05/25 Jamaica Premier League | Cavalier | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Mount Pleasant FA |
| 24/04/25 Jamaica Premier League | Cavalier | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Mount Pleasant FA |
Standings · Jamaica Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tru-Juice FC | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 7 |
| 2 | Montego Bay Utd | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 7 |
| 3 | Waterhouse | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 6 |
| 4 | Cavalier | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 6 |
| 5 | Racing United FC | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 6 |
| 6 | Tivoli Gardens | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 5 |
| 7 | Chapelton Maroons FC | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 4 |
| 8 | Portmore United | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 3 |
| 9 | Arnett Gardens | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 3 |
| 10 | Molynes United FC | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 3 |
| 11 | Mount Pleasant FA | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 3 |
| 12 | Treasure Beach FC | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 1 |
| 13 | Dunbeholden FC | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| 14 | Humble Lions | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Mount Pleasant FA | Cavalier |
|---|---|---|
| Dunbeholden FC | 2-0 W | 2-1 W |
| Racing United FC | 0-1 L | 2-0 W |
| Montego Bay Utd | 3-2 W | 1-0 W |
| Portmore United | 1-2 L | 2-2 D |
| Waterhouse | 2-1 W | 2-0 W |
| Record vs common | 3 W 0 D 2 L | 4 W 1 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: Cavalier (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Mount Pleasant FA
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/09 | Dunbeholden FC Jamaica Premier League |
2-0 | 2-0 | 1 | 2 | W |
| 20/09 | Racing United FC Jamaica Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 13/09 | Tru-Juice FC Jamaica Premier League |
0-2 | 0-4 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 25/05 | Montego Bay Utd Jamaica Premier League |
1-0 | 3-2 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 21/05 | Portmore United Jamaica Premier League |
0-2 | 1-2 | 7 | 7 | L |
| 18/05 | Portmore United Jamaica Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 06/05 | Montego Bay Utd Jamaica Premier League |
2-1 | 2-1 | 7 | 2 | W |
| 03/05 | Dunbeholden FC Jamaica Premier League |
1-0 | 5-0 | – | – | W |
| 28/04 | Waterhouse Jamaica Premier League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 8 | 7 | W |
| 24/04 | Chapelton Maroons FC Jamaica Premier League |
2-2 | 5-2 | 4 | 5 | W |
Cavalier
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/09 | Arnett Gardens Jamaica Premier League |
2-1 | 3-2 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 13/09 | Dunbeholden FC Jamaica Premier League |
1-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 25/05 | Portmore United Jamaica Premier League |
2-1 | 2-2 | 6 | 2 | D |
| 21/05 | Montego Bay Utd Jamaica Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 18/05 | Montego Bay Utd Jamaica Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 14/05 | Waterhouse Jamaica Premier League |
1-0 | 2-0 | – | – | W |
| 11/05 | Waterhouse Jamaica Premier League |
1-2 | 2-2 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 06/05 | Harbour View FC Jamaica Premier League |
0-1 | 2-1 | 13 | 6 | W |
| 03/05 | Tivoli Gardens Jamaica Premier League |
0-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 1 | W |
| 26/04 | Racing United FC Jamaica Premier League |
0-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 4 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Mount Pleasant FA vs Cavalier?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Mount Pleasant FA win (49%). Probabilities: Mount Pleasant FA 49%, draw 27%, Cavalier 24%.
How many goals are expected in Mount Pleasant FA vs Cavalier?
The model expects 2.59 goals (Mount Pleasant FA 1.57 · Cavalier 1.02), with a 52% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Mount Pleasant FA vs Cavalier?
The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.