Football · Jamaica Premier League · 11/10, 22:00
Prediction: Cavalier vs Montego Bay Utd
Team pages: Cavalier · Montego Bay Utd
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.45Total
Cavalier1.11
Montego Bay Utd1.34
1X2
Cavalier
Draw
Montego Bay Utd
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 54%
Both teams to score 52%
Most likely score
1-1 14%
Recent form · 10 last
Cavalier
6-3-1 (W-D-L)
Montego Bay Utd
4-1-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Cavalier
2–4
Montego Bay Utd
(6 last)
- Montego Bay Utd0-1Cavalier
- Cavalier0-1Montego Bay Utd
- Montego Bay Utd3-1Cavalier
- Montego Bay Utd1-0Cavalier
- Cavalier3-0Montego Bay Utd
- Montego Bay Utd1-0Cavalier
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Cavalier 1528 · Montego Bay Utd 1507
| Cavalier | Draw | Montego Bay Utd | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 30% | 30% | 41% |
| Market | 31% | 27% | 42% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.45 goals · Bet365 line 2.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 50%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Montego Bay Utd: 4-0-2.
- High corners: 12.3 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 6.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Cavalier | Montego Bay Utd | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.7 / 1 | 1.1 / 1.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 0.7 | 0.4 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/50/20% | 30/40/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.1 / 5.2 | 2.8 / 7.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.7 / 0.1 | 3.1 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Cavalier 2–0–4 Montego Bay Utd
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21/05/26 Jamaica Premier League | Montego Bay Utd | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Cavalier |
| 18/05/26 Jamaica Premier League | Cavalier | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Montego Bay Utd |
| 29/03/26 Jamaica Premier League | Montego Bay Utd | 3-1 HT 1-0 | Cavalier |
| 15/02/26 Jamaica Premier League | Montego Bay Utd | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Cavalier |
| 08/12/25 Jamaica Premier League | Cavalier | 3-0 HT 1-0 | Montego Bay Utd |
| 27/04/25 Jamaica Premier League | Montego Bay Utd | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Cavalier |
Standings · Jamaica Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Waterhouse | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 1 | 10 |
| 2 | Montego Bay Utd | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 10 |
| 3 | Racing United FC | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 3 | 9 |
| 4 | Tivoli Gardens | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 8 |
| 5 | Tru-Juice FC | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 7 |
| 6 | Cavalier | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 4 | 7 |
| 7 | Portmore United | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 5 |
| 8 | Arnett Gardens | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 7 | 4 |
| 9 | Mount Pleasant FA | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 4 |
| 10 | Chapelton Maroons FC | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 4 |
| 11 | Molynes United FC | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 11 | 3 |
| 12 | Treasure Beach FC | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 2 |
| 13 | Humble Lions | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 13 | 1 |
| 14 | Dunbeholden FC | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
Common opponents 3 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Cavalier | Montego Bay Utd |
|---|---|---|
| Mount Pleasant FA | 1-1 D | 2-3 L |
| Dunbeholden FC | 2-1 W | 1-0 W |
| Harbour View FC | 2-1 W | 3-4 L |
| Record vs common | 2 W 1 D 0 L | 1 W 0 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Cavalier (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Cavalier
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/10 | Mount Pleasant FA Jamaica Premier League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 27/09 | Arnett Gardens Jamaica Premier League |
2-1 | 3-2 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 13/09 | Dunbeholden FC Jamaica Premier League |
1-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 25/05 | Portmore United Jamaica Premier League |
2-1 | 2-2 | 6 | 2 | D |
| 21/05 | Montego Bay Utd Jamaica Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 18/05 | Montego Bay Utd Jamaica Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 14/05 | Waterhouse Jamaica Premier League |
1-0 | 2-0 | – | – | W |
| 11/05 | Waterhouse Jamaica Premier League |
1-2 | 2-2 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 06/05 | Harbour View FC Jamaica Premier League |
0-1 | 2-1 | 13 | 6 | W |
| 03/05 | Tivoli Gardens Jamaica Premier League |
0-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 1 | W |
Montego Bay Utd
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/10 | Dunbeholden FC Jamaica Premier League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 28/09 | Racing United FC Jamaica Premier League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 20/09 | Tru-Juice FC Jamaica Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 13/09 | Chapelton Maroons FC Jamaica Premier League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 25/05 | Mount Pleasant FA Jamaica Premier League |
0-1 | 2-3 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 21/05 | Cavalier Jamaica Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 18 | 4 | L |
| 18/05 | Cavalier Jamaica Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 11 | 4 | W |
| 06/05 | Mount Pleasant FA Jamaica Premier League |
1-2 | 1-2 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 03/05 | Treasure Beach FC Jamaica Premier League |
0-0 | 0-2 | 11 | 1 | L |
| 26/04 | Harbour View FC Jamaica Premier League |
0-3 | 3-4 | 7 | 3 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Cavalier vs Montego Bay Utd?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Montego Bay Utd win (41%). Probabilities: Cavalier 30%, draw 28%, Montego Bay Utd 41%.
How many goals are expected in Cavalier vs Montego Bay Utd?
The model expects 2.45 goals (Cavalier 1.11 · Montego Bay Utd 1.34), with a 54% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Cavalier vs Montego Bay Utd?
The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.