Football · Jamaica Premier League · 06/10, 00:05
Prediction: Chapelton Maroons FC vs Waterhouse
Team pages: Chapelton Maroons FC · Waterhouse
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.99Total
Chapelton Maroons FC1.2
Waterhouse1.79
1X2
Chapelton Maroons FC
Draw
Waterhouse
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 53%
Both teams to score 56%
Most likely score
1-1 12%
Recent form · 10 last
Chapelton Maroons FC
3-1-6 (W-D-L)
Waterhouse
6-1-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Chapelton Maroons FC
1–2–3
Waterhouse
(6 last)
- Waterhouse3-0Chapelton Maroons FC
- Chapelton Maroons FC0-1Waterhouse
- Waterhouse3-0Chapelton Maroons FC
- Chapelton Maroons FC1-1Waterhouse
- Waterhouse0-3Chapelton Maroons FC
- Chapelton Maroons FC1-1Waterhouse
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Chapelton Maroons FC 1449 · Waterhouse 1549
| Chapelton Maroons FC | Draw | Waterhouse | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 24% | 25% | 50% |
| Market | 24% | 26% | 50% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.99 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Waterhouse (rating 1449 vs 1549).
- H2H favours Waterhouse: 3-2-1.
- Cards-heavy: 7.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Chapelton Maroons FC | Waterhouse | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.7 / 2.7 | 2 / 0.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.2 / 1.3 | 1 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/20/50% | 60/10/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2 / 4.1 | 2 / 5.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.4 / 0.1 | 4.4 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Chapelton Maroons FC 1–2–3 Waterhouse
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/05/26 Jamaica Premier League | Waterhouse | 3-0 HT 1-0 | Chapelton Maroons FC |
| 22/01/26 Jamaica Premier League | Chapelton Maroons FC | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Waterhouse |
| 30/09/25 Jamaica Premier League | Waterhouse | 3-0 HT 1-0 | Chapelton Maroons FC |
| 01/04/25 Jamaica Premier League | Chapelton Maroons FC | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Waterhouse |
| 26/01/25 Jamaica Premier League | Waterhouse | 0-3 HT 0-2 | Chapelton Maroons FC |
| 28/10/24 Jamaica Premier League | Chapelton Maroons FC | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Waterhouse |
Standings · Jamaica Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tru-Juice FC | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 7 |
| 2 | Montego Bay Utd | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 7 |
| 3 | Waterhouse | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 6 |
| 4 | Cavalier | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 6 |
| 5 | Racing United FC | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 6 |
| 6 | Tivoli Gardens | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 5 |
| 7 | Chapelton Maroons FC | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 4 |
| 8 | Portmore United | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 3 |
| 9 | Arnett Gardens | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 3 |
| 10 | Molynes United FC | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 3 |
| 11 | Mount Pleasant FA | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 3 |
| 12 | Treasure Beach FC | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 1 |
| 13 | Dunbeholden FC | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| 14 | Humble Lions | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Chapelton Maroons FC | Waterhouse |
|---|---|---|
| Tivoli Gardens | 1-1 D | 1-0 W |
| Mount Pleasant FA | 2-5 L | 1-2 L |
| Treasure Beach FC | 3-0 W | 2-0 W |
| Cavalier | 1-4 L | 0-2 L |
| Record vs common | 1 W 1 D 2 L | 2 W 0 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Waterhouse (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Chapelton Maroons FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/09 | Tivoli Gardens Jamaica Premier League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 20/09 | Molynes United FC Jamaica Premier League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 13/09 | Montego Bay Utd Jamaica Premier League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 1 | 5 | L |
| 06/05 | Arnett Gardens Jamaica Premier League |
0-5 | 2-7 | – | – | L |
| 03/05 | Waterhouse Jamaica Premier League |
0-1 | 0-3 | 7 | 2 | L |
| 26/04 | Spanish Town Police Jamaica Premier League |
5-0 | 6-2 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 24/04 | Mount Pleasant FA Jamaica Premier League |
2-2 | 2-5 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 19/04 | Portmore United Jamaica Premier League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 15/04 | Treasure Beach FC Jamaica Premier League |
2-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 12/04 | Cavalier Jamaica Premier League |
1-2 | 1-4 | 6 | 2 | L |
Waterhouse
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/09 | Treasure Beach FC Jamaica Premier League |
2-0 | 2-0 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 22/09 | Humble Lions Jamaica Premier League |
2-0 | 5-0 | 6 | 6 | W |
| 14/05 | Cavalier Jamaica Premier League |
0-1 | 0-2 | – | – | L |
| 11/05 | Cavalier Jamaica Premier League |
2-1 | 2-2 | 2 | 3 | D |
| 06/05 | Dunbeholden FC Jamaica Premier League |
2-0 | 4-0 | – | – | W |
| 03/05 | Chapelton Maroons FC Jamaica Premier League |
1-0 | 3-0 | 1 | 2 | W |
| 28/04 | Mount Pleasant FA Jamaica Premier League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 7 | L |
| 24/04 | Treasure Beach FC Jamaica Premier League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 10 | 4 | L |
| 19/04 | Harbour View FC Jamaica Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 16/04 | Tivoli Gardens Jamaica Premier League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 7 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Chapelton Maroons FC vs Waterhouse?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Waterhouse win (50%). Probabilities: Chapelton Maroons FC 24%, draw 26%, Waterhouse 50%.
How many goals are expected in Chapelton Maroons FC vs Waterhouse?
The model expects 2.99 goals (Chapelton Maroons FC 1.2 · Waterhouse 1.79), with a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Chapelton Maroons FC vs Waterhouse?
The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.