Football · Argentina Championship Women · 04/10, 23:00

Prediction: Gimnasia LP (W) vs Banfield (W)

Team pages: Gimnasia LP (W) · Banfield (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.57Total

Gimnasia LP (W)1.1

Banfield (W)1.47

1X2

27% 28% 45%

Gimnasia LP (W) Draw Banfield (W)

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Gimnasia LP (W) 1-1-8 (W-D-L)

LLLLLLLLWD

Banfield (W) 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

WLWWDWDDWW

Head-to-head

Gimnasia LP (W) 3–1–2 Banfield (W) (6 last)

Banfield (W)2-2Gimnasia LP (W)
Gimnasia LP (W)1-0Banfield (W)
Banfield (W)4-1Gimnasia LP (W)
Banfield (W)2-0Gimnasia LP (W)
Gimnasia LP (W)1-0Banfield (W)
Banfield (W)2-5Gimnasia LP (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Gimnasia LP (W) 1422 · Banfield (W) 1556

	Gimnasia LP (W)	Draw	Banfield (W)
Our model	27%	28%	45%
Market	27%	28%	45%

Estimated total (ours) 2.57 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Banfield (W) (rating 1422 vs 1556).
H2H favours Gimnasia LP (W): 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 6.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Gimnasia LP (W)	Banfield (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	0.4 / 1.8	1.7 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.1 / 0.9	1.1 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/50/50%	50/50/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.2 / 4	2.7 / 4.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.5 / 0.3	2.8 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

13.30

X3.20

22.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)2.02

2 (-0.25)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.93

Under 2.251.88

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.35

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 03:39

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.50 → 3.30▼	Bet365 3.30
X	3.25 → 3.20▼	Pinn 3.24
2	1.95 → 2.00▲	Pinn 2.35 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.6% Pinnacle margin 9.1%

Time*	1	X	2
16:49 +14’	3.50	3.25	1.95
03:15 +24’	3.30▼	3.20▼	2.00▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
23:19 +51’	2.70	3.24	2.42
01:15 +5’	2.80▲	3.24	2.35▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Gimnasia LP (W) 3–1–2 Banfield (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
27/06/26 Argentina Championship Women	Banfield (W)	2-2 HT 1-0	Gimnasia LP (W)
21/09/25 Argentina Championship Women	Gimnasia LP (W)	1-0 HT 1-0	Banfield (W)
20/07/25 Women’s Friendly	Banfield (W)	4-1 HT 2-0	Gimnasia LP (W)
24/05/25 Argentina Championship Women	Banfield (W)	2-0 HT 0-0	Gimnasia LP (W)
11/08/24 Argentina Championship Women	Gimnasia LP (W)	1-0 HT 1-0	Banfield (W)
17/03/24 Argentina Championship Women	Banfield (W)	2-5 HT 0-3	Gimnasia LP (W)

Standings · Argentina Championship Women · Primera Division A, Women 2026, Clausura

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	San Luis FC (W)	10	8	0	2	20	11	24
2	Boca Juniors (W)	10	7	1	2	16	8	22
3	Banfield (W)	10	6	3	1	17	8	21
4	San Lorenzo (W)	10	5	4	1	17	8	19
5	CA Talleres de Cordoba (W)	9	5	3	1	14	6	18
6	Belgrano (W)	11	5	2	4	19	12	17
7	Social Atletico Television (W)	10	4	4	2	10	7	16
8	Racing Club (W)	10	4	2	4	17	11	14
9	Ferro Carril Oeste (W)	10	4	2	4	17	17	14
10	Lanus (W)	9	4	2	3	8	8	14
11	River Plate (W)	7	3	2	2	11	6	11
12	Union Santa Fe (W)	11	2	4	5	10	19	10
13	CA Independiente Women	10	3	0	7	12	24	9
14	Huracan (W)	11	2	1	8	9	19	7
15	Gimnasia LP (W)	10	1	1	8	4	18	4
16	Newell's Old Boys (W)	10	0	1	9	4	23	1

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Gimnasia LP (W)	Banfield (W)
Newell's Old Boys (W)	1-0 W	3-1 W
Racing Club (W)	0-4 L	1-0 W
San Lorenzo (W)	0-2 L	1-1 D
CA Talleres de Cordoba (W)	1-2 L	0-0 D
Ferro Carril Oeste (W)	0-2 L	2-1 W
Boca Juniors (W)	0-2 L	0-0 D
Lanus (W)	0-1 L	3-2 W
San Luis FC (W)	1-2 L	3-1 W
Union Santa Fe (W)	0-2 L	1-2 L
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 8 L	5 W 3 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Banfield (W) (9 of 9 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Gimnasia LP (W)

LLLLLLLLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/09	Social Atletico Television (W) Argentina Championship Women	0-1	1-1	4	1	D
18/09	Newell's Old Boys (W) Argentina Championship Women	0-0	1-0	3	2	W
12/09	Racing Club (W) Argentina Championship Women	0-3	0-4	2	7	L
04/09	San Lorenzo (W) Argentina Championship Women	0-2	0-2	4	1	L
30/08	CA Talleres de Cordoba (W) Argentina Championship Women	1-1	1-2	6	6	L
24/08	Ferro Carril Oeste (W) Argentina Championship Women	0-0	0-2	7	5	L
16/08	Boca Juniors (W) Argentina Championship Women	0-0	0-2	3	4	L
08/08	Lanus (W) Argentina Championship Women	0-0	0-1	4	4	L
02/08	San Luis FC (W) Argentina Championship Women	0-1	1-2	3	4	L
27/07	Union Santa Fe (W) Argentina Championship Women	0-1	0-2	4	4	L

Banfield (W)

WLWWDWDDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	Newell's Old Boys (W) Argentina Championship Women	1-0	3-1	8	2	W
18/09	Racing Club (W) Argentina Championship Women	1-0	1-0	1	4	W
11/09	San Lorenzo (W) Argentina Championship Women	1-1	1-1	2	1	D
05/09	CA Talleres de Cordoba (W) Argentina Championship Women	0-0	0-0	4	3	D
01/09	Ferro Carril Oeste (W) Argentina Championship Women	0-0	2-1	5	4	W
22/08	Boca Juniors (W) Argentina Championship Women	0-0	0-0	4	1	D
16/08	Lanus (W) Argentina Championship Women	3-2	3-2	5	3	W
09/08	San Luis FC (W) Argentina Championship Women	2-0	3-1	5	2	W
02/08	Union Santa Fe (W) Argentina Championship Women	1-1	1-2	7	4	L
25/07	CA Independiente Women Argentina Championship Women	2-0	3-0	2	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Gimnasia LP (W) vs Banfield (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Banfield (W) win (45%). Probabilities: Gimnasia LP (W) 27%, draw 28%, Banfield (W) 45%.

How many goals are expected in Gimnasia LP (W) vs Banfield (W)?

The model expects 2.57 goals (Gimnasia LP (W) 1.1 · Banfield (W) 1.47), with a 52% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Gimnasia LP (W) vs Banfield (W)?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.