Football · South Korea K4 League · 03/10, 09:00

Prediction: Jinju Citizen FC vs Geoje Citizen FC

Team pages: Jinju Citizen FC · Geoje Citizen FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.41Total

Jinju Citizen FC2.24

Geoje Citizen FC1.17

1X2

60% 22% 18%

Jinju Citizen FC Draw Geoje Citizen FC

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

2-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Jinju Citizen FC 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

DWLWWWWWDL

Geoje Citizen FC 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Jinju Citizen FC 1–2–3 Geoje Citizen FC (6 last)

Geoje Citizen FC2-2Jinju Citizen FC
Jinju Citizen FC1-3Geoje Citizen FC
Geoje Citizen FC2-2Jinju Citizen FC
Jinju Citizen FC3-2Geoje Citizen FC
Jinju Citizen FC1-2Geoje Citizen FC
Geoje Citizen FC3-1Jinju Citizen FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Jinju Citizen FC 1548 · Geoje Citizen FC 1539

	Jinju Citizen FC	Draw	Geoje Citizen FC
Our model	61%	21%	18%
Market	60%	22%	18%

Estimated total (ours) 3.41 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Geoje Citizen FC: 3-2-1.
High corners: 11.1 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Jinju Citizen FC	Geoje Citizen FC
Goals for / against (FT)	2.3 / 1.3	2.2 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.9	1 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	33/33/33%	44/44/11%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 4.9	2.3 / 6.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0.1	3.8 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.48

X4.10

25.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.80

2 (+1)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 31.88

Under 31.93

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 3.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:11

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.48 → 1.48	Pinn 1.57 ★
X	4.10 → 4.10	Bet365 4.10
2	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12% Pinnacle margin 12.7%

Time*	1	X	2
12:55 +16’	1.48	4.10	5.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
14:46 +20’	1.57	3.84	4.35

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Jinju Citizen FC 1–2–3 Geoje Citizen FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
10/05/26 South Korea K4 League	Geoje Citizen FC	2-2 HT 2-0	Jinju Citizen FC
06/09/25 South Korea K4 League	Jinju Citizen FC	1-3 HT 1-3	Geoje Citizen FC
15/06/25 South Korea K4 League	Geoje Citizen FC	2-2 HT 0-0	Jinju Citizen FC
30/03/25 South Korea K4 League	Jinju Citizen FC	3-2 HT 2-2	Geoje Citizen FC
01/09/24 South Korea K4 League	Jinju Citizen FC	1-2 HT 0-1	Geoje Citizen FC
11/05/24 South Korea K4 League	Geoje Citizen FC	3-1 HT 2-1	Jinju Citizen FC

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Jinju Citizen FC	Geoje Citizen FC
Namyangju FC	1-2 L	0-1 L
Geumsan Insam	1-1 D	1-2 L
Gijang United	4-1 W	4-2 W
Pyeongtaek Citizen FC	2-0 W	3-2 W
Seosan Pioneer	1-0 W	1-0 W
Jecheon Citizen	2-0 W	2-0 W
Jincheon HR	2-6 L	1-4 L
Pyeongchang United	4-0 W	3-1 W
Record vs common	5 W 1 D 2 L	5 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Jinju Citizen FC (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Jinju Citizen FC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/09	Namyangju FC South Korea K4 League	0-2	1-2	8	4	L
30/08	Geumsan Insam South Korea K4 League	0-0	1-1	2	7	D
22/08	Gijang United South Korea K4 League	1-1	4-1	4	3	W
26/07	Pyeongtaek Citizen FC South Korea K4 League	–	2-0	–	–	W
27/06	Seosan Pioneer South Korea K4 League	0-0	1-0	10	2	W
06/06	Jecheon Citizen South Korea K4 League	1-0	2-0	5	4	W
31/05	Haman South Korea K4 League	2-0	4-1	6	7	W
23/05	Jincheon HR South Korea K4 League	1-3	2-6	5	2	L
16/05	Pyeongchang United South Korea K4 League	3-0	4-0	1	2	W
10/05	Geoje Citizen FC South Korea K4 League	0-2	2-2	3	10	D

Geoje Citizen FC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Jecheon Citizen South Korea K4 League	1-0	2-0	8	2	W
12/09	Seosan Pioneer South Korea K4 League	0-0	1-0	6	4	W
25/07	Jincheon HR South Korea K4 League	–	1-4	–	–	L
11/07	Pyeongchang United South Korea K4 League	1-1	3-1	4	4	W
07/06	Namyangju FC South Korea K4 League	0-0	0-1	9	4	L
31/05	Geumsan Insam South Korea K4 League	1-1	1-2	5	2	L
24/05	Gijang United South Korea K4 League	2-1	4-2	10	2	W
17/05	Pyeongtaek Citizen FC South Korea K4 League	0-1	3-2	6	4	W
10/05	Jinju Citizen FC South Korea K4 League	2-0	2-2	5	10	D
02/05	Seosan Pioneer South Korea K4 League	2-0	5-0	3	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Jinju Citizen FC vs Geoje Citizen FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Jinju Citizen FC win (60%). Probabilities: Jinju Citizen FC 60%, draw 22%, Geoje Citizen FC 18%.

How many goals are expected in Jinju Citizen FC vs Geoje Citizen FC?

The model expects 3.41 goals (Jinju Citizen FC 2.24 · Geoje Citizen FC 1.17), with a 53% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Jinju Citizen FC vs Geoje Citizen FC?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.