Football · Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2 · 03/10, 20:00

Prediction: APAFUT vs Santa Cruz RS

Team pages: APAFUT · Santa Cruz RS

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.14Total

APAFUT1.17

Santa Cruz RS0.97

1X2

40% 31% 30%

APAFUT Draw Santa Cruz RS

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 64% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

APAFUT 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

LDDWWLWDDW

Santa Cruz RS 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

LWDDWWLDDW

Head-to-head

APAFUT 0–1–0 Santa Cruz RS (1 last)

Santa Cruz RS2-2APAFUT

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · APAFUT 1525 · Santa Cruz RS 1529

	APAFUT	Draw	Santa Cruz RS
Our model	39%	32%	29%
Market	40%	30%	30%

Estimated total (ours) 2.14 goals · Bet365 line 2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 11.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	APAFUT	Santa Cruz RS
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.1	1.1 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.6	0.5 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	30/60/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 5.2	1.4 / 3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	6.1 / 0.1	5.6 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.25

X3.00

23.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.00

2 (+0.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 21.90

Under 21.90

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:17

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.25 → 2.25	Bet365 2.25
X	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00
2	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
15:57 +20’	2.25	3.00	3.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · APAFUT 0–1–0 Santa Cruz RS

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Date	Home	Score	Away
24/09/26 Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	Santa Cruz RS	2-2 HT 1-1	APAFUT

Standings · Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Passo Fundo RS	15	8	6	1	21	9	30
2	Veranopolis	15	7	5	3	12	6	26
3	CE Bento Goncalves	15	6	7	2	18	12	25
4	Santa Cruz RS	15	6	7	2	15	10	25
5	APAFUT	15	6	6	3	20	14	24
6	Uniao Frederiquense	15	6	6	3	17	12	24
7	Brasil de Farroupilha	14	5	8	1	13	7	23
8	Aimore RS	15	5	6	4	14	14	21
9	Brasil de Pelotas	13	5	5	3	13	10	20
10	Guarani de Venancio Aires	15	4	6	5	18	21	18
11	GE Bage	15	3	6	6	13	19	15
12	EC Pelotas	13	2	7	4	11	15	13
13	Sport Clube Gaucho	15	3	3	9	11	16	12
14	GE Gloria	14	2	6	6	11	16	12
15	Gramadense	15	1	8	6	10	19	11
16	Lajeadense	15	1	2	12	6	23	5

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	APAFUT	Santa Cruz RS
Lajeadense	2-1 W	3-1 W
Uniao Frederiquense	1-1 D	0-0 D
EC Pelotas	2-1 W	0-0 D
Guarani de Venancio Aires	2-0 W	1-1 D
Brasil de Pelotas	1-1 D	0-2 L
Veranopolis	1-2 L	3-0 W
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 1 L	2 W 3 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: APAFUT (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

APAFUT

LDDWWLWDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/09	Lajeadense Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	1-1	2-1	3	7	W
24/09	Santa Cruz RS Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	1-1	2-2	8	5	D
19/09	Uniao Frederiquense Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	1-1	1-1	3	6	D
16/09	EC Pelotas Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-1	2-1	3	9	W
13/09	Brasil de Farroupilha Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-0	0-1	6	8	L
10/09	Guarani de Venancio Aires Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	1-0	2-0	5	8	W
06/09	Aimore RS Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	1-0	3-2	4	5	W
01/09	Brasil de Pelotas Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-1	1-1	7	7	D
23/08	Gramadense Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-0	0-0	3	2	D
19/08	Veranopolis Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	1-1	1-2	10	5	L

Santa Cruz RS

LWDDWWLDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/09	Sport Clube Gaucho Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	1-0	1-0	3	7	W
24/09	APAFUT Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	1-1	2-2	6	5	D
19/09	Guarani de Venancio Aires Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	1-1	1-1	–	–	D
17/09	Brasil de Pelotas Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-1	0-2	1	3	L
13/09	Lajeadense Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	1-0	3-1	–	–	W
11/09	GE Bage Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	1-0	1-0	3	7	W
06/09	Uniao Frederiquense Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
03/09	EC Pelotas Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-0	0-0	0	4	D
23/08	Veranopolis Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-0	3-0	3	9	W
20/08	Passo Fundo Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-0	0-2	5	6	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in APAFUT vs Santa Cruz RS?

According to our model, the most likely result is a APAFUT win (40%). Probabilities: APAFUT 40%, draw 31%, Santa Cruz RS 30%.

How many goals are expected in APAFUT vs Santa Cruz RS?

The model expects 2.14 goals (APAFUT 1.17 · Santa Cruz RS 0.97), with a 50% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in APAFUT vs Santa Cruz RS?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.