Football · Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2 · 10/10, 20:00

Prediction: Santa Cruz RS vs APAFUT

Team pages: Santa Cruz RS · APAFUT

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.09Total

Santa Cruz RS1.23

APAFUT0.86

1X2

44% 31% 25%

Santa Cruz RS Draw APAFUT

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 65% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Santa Cruz RS 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

WDDWWLDDWL

APAFUT 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

DDWWLWDDWW

Head-to-head

Santa Cruz RS 0–1–1 APAFUT (2 last)

APAFUT1-0Santa Cruz RS
Santa Cruz RS2-2APAFUT

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Santa Cruz RS 1527 · APAFUT 1546

	Santa Cruz RS	Draw	APAFUT
Our model	44%	32%	24%
Market	45%	30%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 2.09 goals · Bet365 line 2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 12 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Santa Cruz RS	APAFUT
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 0.7	1.4 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.4	0.6 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 3.1	2.6 / 4.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.7 / 0.4	6.3 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.00

X3.00

23.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)2.02

2 (+0.5)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 21.90

Under 21.90

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.05

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 11:04

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.10 → 2.00▼	Bet365 2.00
X	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00
2	3.25 → 3.50▲	Pinn 4.37 ★

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 11.9% Pinnacle margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
18:09 +9’	2.10	3.00	3.25
01:52 +4’	2.05▼	3.00	3.40▲
10:57 +7’	2.00▼	3.00	3.50▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
08:13 +73’	2.04	2.80	3.60
13:09 +90’	2.05▲	2.79▼	3.57▼
19:33 +11’	1.85▼	2.93▲	4.37▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Santa Cruz RS 0–1–1 APAFUT

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Date	Home	Score	Away
03/10/26 Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	APAFUT	1-0 HT 1-0	Santa Cruz RS
24/09/26 Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	Santa Cruz RS	2-2 HT 1-1	APAFUT

Standings · Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Passo Fundo RS	15	8	6	1	21	9	30
2	Veranopolis	15	7	5	3	12	6	26
3	CE Bento Goncalves	15	6	7	2	18	12	25
4	Santa Cruz RS	15	6	7	2	15	10	25
5	APAFUT	15	6	6	3	20	14	24
6	Uniao Frederiquense	15	6	6	3	17	12	24
7	Brasil de Farroupilha	14	5	8	1	13	7	23
8	Aimore RS	15	5	6	4	14	14	21
9	Brasil de Pelotas	13	5	5	3	13	10	20
10	Guarani de Venancio Aires	15	4	6	5	18	21	18
11	GE Bage	15	3	6	6	13	19	15
12	EC Pelotas	13	2	7	4	11	15	13
13	Sport Clube Gaucho	15	3	3	9	11	16	12
14	GE Gloria	14	2	6	6	11	16	12
15	Gramadense	15	1	8	6	10	19	11
16	Lajeadense	15	1	2	12	6	23	5

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Santa Cruz RS	APAFUT
Guarani de Venancio Aires	1-1 D	2-0 W
Brasil de Pelotas	0-2 L	1-1 D
Lajeadense	3-1 W	2-1 W
Uniao Frederiquense	0-0 D	1-1 D
EC Pelotas	0-0 D	2-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 3 D 1 L	3 W 2 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: APAFUT (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Santa Cruz RS

WDDWWLDDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/10	APAFUT Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-1	0-1	6	8	L
27/09	Sport Clube Gaucho Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	1-0	1-0	3	7	W
24/09	APAFUT Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	1-1	2-2	6	5	D
19/09	Guarani de Venancio Aires Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	1-1	1-1	–	–	D
17/09	Brasil de Pelotas Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-1	0-2	1	3	L
13/09	Lajeadense Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	1-0	3-1	–	–	W
11/09	GE Bage Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	1-0	1-0	3	7	W
06/09	Uniao Frederiquense Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
03/09	EC Pelotas Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-0	0-0	0	4	D
23/08	Veranopolis Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-0	3-0	3	9	W

APAFUT

DDWWLWDDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/10	Santa Cruz RS Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	1-0	1-0	7	8	W
27/09	Lajeadense Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	1-1	2-1	3	7	W
24/09	Santa Cruz RS Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	1-1	2-2	8	5	D
19/09	Uniao Frederiquense Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	1-1	1-1	3	6	D
16/09	EC Pelotas Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-1	2-1	3	9	W
13/09	Brasil de Farroupilha Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-0	0-1	6	8	L
10/09	Guarani de Venancio Aires Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	1-0	2-0	5	8	W
06/09	Aimore RS Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	1-0	3-2	4	5	W
01/09	Brasil de Pelotas Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-1	1-1	7	7	D
23/08	Gramadense Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-0	0-0	3	2	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Santa Cruz RS vs APAFUT?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Santa Cruz RS win (44%). Probabilities: Santa Cruz RS 44%, draw 31%, APAFUT 25%.

How many goals are expected in Santa Cruz RS vs APAFUT?

The model expects 2.09 goals (Santa Cruz RS 1.23 · APAFUT 0.86), with a 51% chance of under 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Santa Cruz RS vs APAFUT?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.