Football · Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2 · 11/10, 20:00

Prediction: Veranopolis vs Uniao Frederiquense

Team pages: Veranopolis · Uniao Frederiquense

Prediction summary

Expected goals

1.75Total

Veranopolis1.02

Uniao Frederiquense0.73

1X2

42% 33% 25%

Veranopolis Draw Uniao Frederiquense

Markets

Over 1.5 goals 54% Not both to score 54%

Most likely score

0-0 19%

Recent form · 10 last

Veranopolis 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

LLWWDDLWDL

Uniao Frederiquense 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

WWDWDDDWLW

Head-to-head

Veranopolis 0–3–3 Uniao Frederiquense (6 last)

Uniao Frederiquense2-0Veranopolis
Uniao Frederiquense1-0Veranopolis
Uniao Frederiquense0-0Veranopolis
Veranopolis1-1Uniao Frederiquense
Uniao Frederiquense1-0Veranopolis
Uniao Frederiquense1-1Veranopolis

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Veranopolis 1488 · Uniao Frederiquense 1544

	Veranopolis	Draw	Uniao Frederiquense
Our model	40%	35%	24%
Market	43%	31%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 1.75 goals · Bet365 line 1.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 71%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Uniao Frederiquense (rating 1488 vs 1544).
H2H favours Uniao Frederiquense: 3-3-0.
Cards-heavy: 8.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Veranopolis	Uniao Frederiquense
Goals for / against (FT)	0.4 / 0.7	1.3 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 0.1	0.6 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/70/10%	30/60/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 4.7	3.2 / 5.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5 / 0.2	3.5 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.10

X2.88

23.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.82

2 (+0.25)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 1.751.80

Under 1.752.00

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 1.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 21:34

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.10 → 2.10	Bet365 2.10
X	2.88 → 2.88	Bet365 2.88
2	3.40 → 3.40	Pinn 4.13 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.8% Pinnacle margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
21:26 +9’	2.10	2.88	3.40

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
08:11 +3’	2.21	2.62	3.44
18:00 +55’	2.23▲	2.65▲	3.50▲
19:48 +4’	1.93▼	2.83▲	4.13▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Veranopolis 0–3–3 Uniao Frederiquense

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Date	Home	Score	Away
04/10/26 Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	Uniao Frederiquense	2-0 HT 1-0	Veranopolis
02/09/26 Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	Uniao Frederiquense	1-0 HT 0-0	Veranopolis
28/05/25 Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	Uniao Frederiquense	0-0 HT 0-0	Veranopolis
23/06/24 Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	Veranopolis	1-1 HT 1-1	Uniao Frederiquense
02/06/24 Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	Uniao Frederiquense	1-0 HT 1-0	Veranopolis
18/06/23 Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	Uniao Frederiquense	1-1 HT 0-1	Veranopolis

Standings · Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Passo Fundo RS	15	8	6	1	21	9	30
2	Veranopolis	15	7	5	3	12	6	26
3	CE Bento Goncalves	15	6	7	2	18	12	25
4	Santa Cruz RS	15	6	7	2	15	10	25
5	APAFUT	15	6	6	3	20	14	24
6	Uniao Frederiquense	15	6	6	3	17	12	24
7	Brasil de Farroupilha	14	5	8	1	13	7	23
8	Aimore RS	15	5	6	4	14	14	21
9	Brasil de Pelotas	13	5	5	3	13	10	20
10	Guarani de Venancio Aires	15	4	6	5	18	21	18
11	GE Bage	15	3	6	6	13	19	15
12	EC Pelotas	13	2	7	4	11	15	13
13	Sport Clube Gaucho	15	3	3	9	11	16	12
14	GE Gloria	14	2	6	6	11	16	12
15	Gramadense	15	1	8	6	10	19	11
16	Lajeadense	15	1	2	12	6	23	5

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Veranopolis	Uniao Frederiquense
Lajeadense	1-0 W	2-1 W
Sport Clube Gaucho	0-0 D	1-0 W
Brasil de Pelotas	1-0 W	0-0 D
GE Gloria	2-0 W	3-3 D
Santa Cruz RS	0-3 L	0-0 D
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 1 L	2 W 3 D 0 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Veranopolis

LLWWDDLWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/10	Uniao Frederiquense Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-1	0-2	–	–	L
27/09	Passo Fundo RS Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-0	0-0	6	3	D
24/09	Lajeadense Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	1-0	1-0	1	9	W
19/09	CE Bento Goncalves Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-0	0-1	7	3	L
17/09	GE Bage Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
13/09	Sport Clube Gaucho Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-0	0-0	4	3	D
10/09	Brasil de Pelotas Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
06/09	GE Gloria Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	1-0	2-0	–	–	W
02/09	Uniao Frederiquense Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-0	0-1	7	4	L
23/08	Santa Cruz RS Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-0	0-3	3	9	L

Uniao Frederiquense

WWDWDDDWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/10	Veranopolis Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	1-0	2-0	–	–	W
27/09	Guarani de Venancio Aires Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	1-1	1-3	4	0	L
24/09	Aimore RS Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	1-0	2-0	1	5	W
19/09	APAFUT Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	1-1	1-1	3	6	D
17/09	GE Gloria Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	1-1	3-3	–	–	D
13/09	Brasil de Pelotas Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
10/09	Lajeadense Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-1	2-1	7	2	W
06/09	Santa Cruz RS Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
02/09	Veranopolis Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-0	1-0	12	4	W
23/08	Sport Clube Gaucho Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	1-0	1-0	6	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Veranopolis vs Uniao Frederiquense?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Veranopolis win (42%). Probabilities: Veranopolis 42%, draw 33%, Uniao Frederiquense 25%.

How many goals are expected in Veranopolis vs Uniao Frederiquense?

The model expects 1.75 goals (Veranopolis 1.02 · Uniao Frederiquense 0.73), with a 51% chance of under 1.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Veranopolis vs Uniao Frederiquense?

The model gives a 54% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-0.