Football · Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2 · 27/09, 20:00

Prediction: APAFUT vs Lajeadense

Team pages: APAFUT · Lajeadense

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.36Total

APAFUT1.71

Lajeadense0.65

1X2

62% 25% 13%

APAFUT Draw Lajeadense

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 58% Not both to score 52%

Most likely score

1-0 15%

Recent form · 10 last

APAFUT 3-5-2 (W-D-L)

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Lajeadense 1-2-7 (W-D-L)

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Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · APAFUT 1529 · Lajeadense 1429

	APAFUT	Draw	Lajeadense
Our model	62%	25%	13%
Market	62%	25%	13%

Estimated total (ours) 2.36 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours APAFUT (rating 1529 vs 1429).
High corners: 11.1 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 10.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	APAFUT	Lajeadense
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.1	0.4 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.6	0.2 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	20/20/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 5.2	3 / 5.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.6 / 0.1	4.9 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.44

X3.60

27.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.88

2 (+1)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 2.252.02

Under 2.251.77

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 21:20

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.44 → 1.44	Bet365 1.44
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	7.00 → 7.00	Bet365 7.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
21:19 +2’	1.44	3.60	7.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Passo Fundo RS	14	8	5	1	21	9	29
2	Veranopolis	14	7	4	3	12	6	25
3	Uniao Frederiquense	14	6	6	2	16	9	24
4	CE Bento Goncalves	14	6	6	2	17	11	24
5	Brasil de Farroupilha	13	5	7	1	13	7	22
6	Santa Cruz RS	14	5	7	2	14	10	22
7	APAFUT	14	5	6	3	18	13	21
8	Brasil de Pelotas	12	5	5	2	12	6	20
9	Aimore RS	14	5	5	4	13	13	20
10	Guarani de Venancio Aires	14	3	6	5	15	20	15
11	Sport Clube Gaucho	14	3	3	8	11	15	12
12	EC Pelotas	12	2	6	4	11	15	12
13	GE Bage	14	2	6	6	9	18	12
14	GE Gloria	13	2	5	6	10	15	11
15	Gramadense	14	1	7	6	9	18	10
16	Lajeadense	14	1	2	11	5	21	5

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	APAFUT	Lajeadense
Santa Cruz RS	2-2 D	1-3 L
Uniao Frederiquense	1-1 D	1-2 L
Guarani de Venancio Aires	2-0 W	0-1 L
Aimore RS	3-2 W	0-2 L
Brasil de Pelotas	1-1 D	0-1 L
Gramadense	0-0 D	1-1 D
Veranopolis	1-2 L	0-1 L
GE Gloria	1-1 D	0-0 D
Record vs common	2 W 5 D 1 L	0 W 2 D 6 L

Better against common opponents: APAFUT (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

APAFUT

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/09	Santa Cruz RS Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	1-1	2-2	8	5	D
19/09	Uniao Frederiquense Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	1-1	1-1	3	6	D
16/09	EC Pelotas Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-1	2-1	3	9	W
13/09	Brasil de Farroupilha Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-0	0-1	6	8	L
10/09	Guarani de Venancio Aires Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	1-0	2-0	5	8	W
06/09	Aimore RS Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	1-0	3-2	4	5	W
01/09	Brasil de Pelotas Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-1	1-1	7	7	D
23/08	Gramadense Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-0	0-0	3	2	D
19/08	Veranopolis Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	1-1	1-2	10	5	L
15/08	GE Gloria Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	1-1	1-1	3	2	D

Lajeadense

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/09	Veranopolis Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-1	0-1	4	9	L
19/09	Aimore RS Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-2	0-2	6	4	L
17/09	Sport Clube Gaucho Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	1-0	1-0	1	3	W
13/09	Santa Cruz RS Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-1	1-3	–	–	L
10/09	Uniao Frederiquense Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	1-0	1-2	1	2	L
06/09	Brasil de Pelotas Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-0	0-1	6	8	L
02/09	Guarani de Venancio Aires Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-1	0-1	12	7	L
23/08	GE Gloria Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-0	0-0	11	5	D
20/08	Gramadense Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-1	1-1	5	5	D
16/08	Passo Fundo Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2	0-1	0-3	7	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in APAFUT vs Lajeadense?

According to our model, the most likely result is a APAFUT win (62%). Probabilities: APAFUT 62%, draw 25%, Lajeadense 13%.

How many goals are expected in APAFUT vs Lajeadense?

The model expects 2.36 goals (APAFUT 1.71 · Lajeadense 0.65), with a 52% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in APAFUT vs Lajeadense?

The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.