Football · Mexico Liga MX · 11/10, 01:00

Prediction: Queretaro vs Atlante

Team pages: Queretaro · Atlante

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.73Total

Queretaro1.58

Atlante1.15

1X2

46% 27% 27%

Queretaro Draw Atlante

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Queretaro 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

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Atlante 2-5-3 (W-D-L)

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Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Queretaro 1540 · Atlante 1476

	Queretaro	Draw	Atlante
Our model	46%	27%	27%
Market	47%	26%	27%

Estimated total (ours) 2.73 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Queretaro (rating 1540 vs 1476).
Cards-heavy: 8.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Queretaro	Atlante
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 0.9	1.2 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.4	0.3 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 5.4	1.9 / 4.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5 / 0.4	3.1 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.00

X3.60

23.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)2.00

2 (+0.5)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.80

Under 2.52.00

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 03:23

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.00 → 2.00	Pinn 2.09
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	3.40 → 3.40	Pinn 3.83 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.2% Pinnacle margin 5%

Time*	1	X	2
03:20 +3’	2.00	3.60	3.40

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
01:02 +141’	2.09	3.22	3.83

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · Mexico Liga MX

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Toluca	10	6	2	2	23	12	20
2	Club America	9	6	2	1	21	10	20
3	Chivas Guadalajara	10	5	3	2	17	10	18
4	Queretaro	9	5	2	2	13	8	17
5	Leon	10	5	2	3	14	11	17
6	Atlas	10	5	2	3	16	17	17
7	Cruz Azul	10	5	1	4	19	18	16
8	Tijuana	9	4	2	3	14	13	14
9	Puebla	10	4	2	4	11	12	14
10	Monterrey	9	4	1	4	16	14	13
11	Pachuca	10	3	3	4	15	11	12
12	Unam Pumas	10	3	3	4	14	16	12
13	Atletico San Luis	10	3	3	4	14	18	12
14	Atlante	10	2	5	3	12	15	11
15	Tigres UANL	10	2	4	4	10	13	10
16	Santos Laguna	10	3	1	6	10	15	10
17	Necaxa	10	2	2	6	12	20	8
18	Juarez FC	10	1	0	9	7	25	3

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Queretaro	Atlante
Leon	1-1 D	1-1 D
Atlas	3-1 W	1-1 D
Toluca	1-2 L	0-0 D
Tigres UANL	3-2 W	0-2 L
Pachuca	2-1 W	0-3 L
Club America	0-1 L	1-1 D
Puebla	2-1 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 2 L	0 W 5 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Queretaro (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Queretaro

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/09	Chivas Guadalajara Mexico Liga MX	1-0	2-0	6	3	W
21/09	Leon Mexico Liga MX	0-0	1-1	8	7	D
12/09	Tijuana Mexico Liga MX	1-0	1-0	4	5	W
30/08	Atlas Mexico Liga MX	1-1	3-1	2	3	W
22/08	Toluca Mexico Liga MX	0-0	1-2	7	7	L
16/08	Unam Pumas Mexico Liga MX	0-0	0-0	1	4	D
02/08	Tigres UANL Mexico Liga MX	2-1	3-2	6	9	W
27/07	Pachuca Mexico Liga MX	0-1	2-1	6	5	W
19/07	Club America Mexico Liga MX	0-0	0-1	2	9	L
25/04	Puebla Mexico Liga MX	0-1	2-1	12	2	W

Atlante

LDWDLDDLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	Monterrey Mexico Liga MX	1-1	4-2	2	3	W
19/09	Puebla Mexico Liga MX	1-0	1-1	11	1	D
12/09	Pachuca Mexico Liga MX	0-3	0-3	5	6	L
06/09	Atlas Mexico Liga MX	0-1	1-1	1	5	D
29/08	Leon Mexico Liga MX	0-0	1-1	3	3	D
22/08	Tigres UANL Mexico Liga MX	0-0	0-2	1	2	L
16/08	Toluca Mexico Liga MX	0-0	0-0	8	2	D
02/08	Cruz Azul Mexico Liga MX	1-0	3-2	5	3	W
25/07	Club America Mexico Liga MX	0-1	1-1	2	4	D
17/07	Necaxa Mexico Liga MX	0-0	1-2	5	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Queretaro vs Atlante?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Queretaro win (46%). Probabilities: Queretaro 46%, draw 27%, Atlante 27%.

How many goals are expected in Queretaro vs Atlante?

The model expects 2.73 goals (Queretaro 1.58 · Atlante 1.15), with a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Queretaro vs Atlante?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.