Football · South Africa Diski Challenge · 26/09, 13:00

Prediction: Durban City Reserves vs Mamelodi Sundowns Reserves

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.38Total

Durban City Reserves1.21

Mamelodi Sundowns Reserves2.17

1X2

20% 22% 58%

Durban City Reserves Draw Mamelodi Sundowns Reserves

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Durban City Reserves 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

LLLWWWWLLD

Mamelodi Sundowns Reserves 9-0-1 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Durban City Reserves 2–4 Mamelodi Sundowns Reserves (6 last)

Durban City Reserves1-4Mamelodi Sundowns Reserves
Mamelodi Sundowns Reserves5-2Durban City Reserves
Durban City Reserves2-1Mamelodi Sundowns Reserves
Mamelodi Sundowns Reserves5-1Durban City Reserves
Durban City Reserves3-2Mamelodi Sundowns Reserves
Mamelodi Sundowns Reserves1-0Durban City Reserves

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Durban City Reserves 1493 · Mamelodi Sundowns Reserves 1599

	Durban City Reserves	Draw	Mamelodi Sundowns Reserves
Our model	20%	22%	58%
Market	20%	21%	59%

Estimated total (ours) 3.38 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 75%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Mamelodi Sundowns Reserves (rating 1493 vs 1599).
H2H favours Mamelodi Sundowns Reserves: 4-0-2.
Cards-heavy: 5.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Durban City Reserves	Mamelodi Sundowns Reserves
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 1.6	2.8 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 1	1.9 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/33/17%	78/11/11%
Corners (HT / FT)	0.8 / 2	2.6 / 5.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.2 / 0	2.7 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

14.50

X4.20

21.53

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1)1.85

2 (-1)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 3.252.00

Under 3.251.80

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 3.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:59

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50
X	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20
2	1.53 → 1.53	Bet365 1.53

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
13:44 +15’	4.50	4.20	1.53

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Durban City Reserves 2–0–4 Mamelodi Sundowns Reserves

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Date	Home	Score	Away
28/02/26 South Africa Diski Challenge	Durban City Reserves	1-4 HT 0-4	Mamelodi Sundowns Reserves
20/09/25 South Africa Diski Challenge	Mamelodi Sundowns Reserves	5-2	Durban City Reserves
02/04/23 South Africa Diski Challenge	Durban City Reserves	2-1 HT 2-0	Mamelodi Sundowns Reserves
20/11/22 South Africa Diski Challenge	Mamelodi Sundowns Reserves	5-1 HT 1-1	Durban City Reserves
14/05/22 South Africa Diski Challenge	Durban City Reserves	3-2 HT 1-1	Mamelodi Sundowns Reserves
03/11/19 South Africa Diski Challenge	Mamelodi Sundowns Reserves	1-0 HT 1-0	Durban City Reserves

Standings · South Africa Diski Challenge

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Amazulu Reserves	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Chippa United Reserves	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Durban City Reserves	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Golden Arrows Reserves	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Kaizer Chiefs Reserves	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	?	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Mamelodi Sundowns Reserves	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Marumo Gallants Reserves	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	?	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Orlando Pirates Reserves	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Polokwane City Reserves	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Richards Bay FC Reserves	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sekhukhune United Reserves	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Siwelele FC Reserves	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Stellenbosch FC Reserves	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	TS Galaxy Reserves	0	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Durban City Reserves	Mamelodi Sundowns Reserves
Amazulu Reserves	1-3 L	5-0 W
Orbit College Reserves	0-1 L	6-1 W
Stellenbosch FC Reserves	5-1 W	1-0 W
Marumo Gallants Reserves	0-1 L	2-0 W
Kaizer Chiefs Reserves	1-2 L	2-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 4 L	5 W 0 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Mamelodi Sundowns Reserves (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Durban City Reserves

LLLWWWWLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/05	Magesi FC Reserves South Africa Diski Challenge	–	2-2	–	–	D
02/05	Amazulu Reserves South Africa Diski Challenge	0-0	1-3	4	3	L
25/04	Orbit College Reserves South Africa Diski Challenge	–	0-1	–	–	L
18/04	TS Galaxy Reserves South Africa Diski Challenge	–	3-0	–	–	W
11/04	Golden Arrows Reserves South Africa Diski Challenge	2-0	4-1	1	5	W
28/03	Stellenbosch FC Reserves South Africa Diski Challenge	2-1	5-1	4	1	W
21/03	Siwelele FC Reserves South Africa Diski Challenge	1-0	3-1	0	2	W
14/03	Marumo Gallants Reserves South Africa Diski Challenge	–	0-1	–	–	L
08/03	Kaizer Chiefs Reserves South Africa Diski Challenge	1-1	1-2	2	5	L
28/02	Mamelodi Sundowns Reserves South Africa Diski Challenge	0-4	1-4	1	3	L

Mamelodi Sundowns Reserves

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/05	Orlando Pirates Reserves South Africa Diski Challenge	0-2	0-2	0	1	L
03/05	Kaizer Chiefs Reserves South Africa Diski Challenge	2-0	2-0	4	4	W
26/04	Richards Bay FC Reserves South Africa Diski Challenge	2-0	2-0	6	1	W
21/04	Polokwane City Reserves South Africa Diski Challenge	2-0	3-1	6	3	W
18/04	Chippa United Reserves South Africa Diski Challenge	2-1	3-2	12	3	W
11/04	Stellenbosch FC Reserves South Africa Diski Challenge	0-0	1-0	5	2	W
21/03	Marumo Gallants Reserves South Africa Diski Challenge	1-0	2-0	3	5	W
15/03	Orbit College Reserves South Africa Diski Challenge	4-1	6-1	4	3	W
07/03	Amazulu Reserves South Africa Diski Challenge	–	5-0	–	–	W
28/02	Durban City Reserves South Africa Diski Challenge	4-0	4-1	6	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Durban City Reserves vs Mamelodi Sundowns Reserves?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Mamelodi Sundowns Reserves win (58%). Probabilities: Durban City Reserves 20%, draw 22%, Mamelodi Sundowns Reserves 58%.

How many goals are expected in Durban City Reserves vs Mamelodi Sundowns Reserves?

The model expects 3.38 goals (Durban City Reserves 1.21 · Mamelodi Sundowns Reserves 2.17), with a 52% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Durban City Reserves vs Mamelodi Sundowns Reserves?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.