Football · South Africa Diski Challenge · 04/10, 10:00

Prediction: Marumo Gallants Reserves vs Sekhukhune United Reserves

Team pages: Sekhukhune United Reserves

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.11Total

Marumo Gallants Reserves1.37

Sekhukhune United Reserves1.74

1X2

29% 26% 45%

Marumo Gallants Reserves Draw Sekhukhune United Reserves

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Marumo Gallants Reserves 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

WWLLDDLLWL

Sekhukhune United Reserves 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

WLDWWWWLLW

Head-to-head

Marumo Gallants Reserves 1–3–2 Sekhukhune United Reserves (6 last)

Sekhukhune United Reserves4-0Marumo Gallants Reserves
Marumo Gallants Reserves3-3Sekhukhune United Reserves
Marumo Gallants Reserves2-1Sekhukhune United Reserves
Sekhukhune United Reserves2-2Marumo Gallants Reserves
Marumo Gallants Reserves1-1Sekhukhune United Reserves
Sekhukhune United Reserves4-1Marumo Gallants Reserves

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Marumo Gallants Reserves 1475 · Sekhukhune United Reserves 1536

	Marumo Gallants Reserves	Draw	Sekhukhune United Reserves
Our model	29%	26%	45%
Market	29%	26%	45%

Estimated total (ours) 3.11 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sekhukhune United Reserves (rating 1475 vs 1536).
H2H favours Sekhukhune United Reserves: 2-3-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Marumo Gallants Reserves	Sekhukhune United Reserves
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.8	2.1 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.8	1 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/20/60%	56/22/22%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 3.2	2.9 / 5.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.8 / 0.4	3.4 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

13.10

X3.40

22.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)2.00

2 (-0.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.90

Under 2.51.90

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 3.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:52

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.10 → 3.10	Pinn 3.17
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	2.00 → 2.00	Pinn 2.07 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7% Pinnacle margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
13:46 +6’	3.10	3.40	2.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
23:13 +43’	3.13	3.15	2.05
08:01 +5’	3.17▲	3.20▲	2.07▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Marumo Gallants Reserves 1–3–2 Sekhukhune United Reserves

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/04/26 South Africa Diski Challenge	Sekhukhune United Reserves	4-0 HT 1-0	Marumo Gallants Reserves
23/11/25 South Africa Diski Challenge	Marumo Gallants Reserves	3-3 HT 2-1	Sekhukhune United Reserves
22/03/25 South Africa Diski Challenge	Marumo Gallants Reserves	2-1 HT 1-1	Sekhukhune United Reserves
13/10/24 South Africa Diski Challenge	Sekhukhune United Reserves	2-2 HT 1-0	Marumo Gallants Reserves
14/05/22 South Africa Diski Challenge	Marumo Gallants Reserves	1-1 HT 0-1	Sekhukhune United Reserves
10/10/21 South Africa Diski Challenge	Sekhukhune United Reserves	4-1 HT 3-0	Marumo Gallants Reserves

Standings · South Africa Diski Challenge

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Amazulu Reserves	2	2	0	4	0	6
2	TS Galaxy Reserves	2	2	0	2	0	6
3	Orlando Pirates Reserves	2	1	1	6	4	3
4	Mamelodi Sundowns Reserves	1	1	0	4	2	3
5	Kruger United Reserves	1	1	0	2	0	3
6	Kaizer Chiefs Reserves	1	1	0	3	2	3
7	Siwelele FC Reserves	2	1	1	2	1	3
8	Sekhukhune United Reserves	1	1	0	1	0	3
9	Richards Bay FC Reserves	2	1	1	2	2	3
10	Chippa United Reserves	2	1	1	2	3	3
11	Polokwane City Reserves	1	0	1	0	1	0
12	Golden Arrows Reserves	1	0	1	0	2	0
12	Marumo Gallants Reserves	1	0	1	0	2	0
12	Milford FC Reserves	1	0	1	0	2	0
15	Durban City Reserves	2	0	2	2	5	0
16	Stellenbosch FC Reserves	2	0	2	2	6	0

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Marumo Gallants Reserves	Sekhukhune United Reserves
Stellenbosch FC Reserves	0-4 L	2-1 W
Richards Bay FC Reserves	2-2 D	0-4 L
Siwelele FC Reserves	1-2 L	1-0 W
Polokwane City Reserves	2-0 W	1-2 L
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 2 L	2 W 0 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Marumo Gallants Reserves

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	Kruger United Reserves South Africa Diski Challenge	–	0-2	–	–	L
09/05	Orbit College Reserves South Africa Diski Challenge	–	4-1	–	–	W
02/05	Stellenbosch FC Reserves South Africa Diski Challenge	0-1	0-4	2	3	L
25/04	Sekhukhune United Reserves South Africa Diski Challenge	0-1	0-4	3	2	L
19/04	Richards Bay FC Reserves South Africa Diski Challenge	–	2-2	–	–	D
11/04	TS Galaxy Reserves South Africa Diski Challenge	–	1-1	–	–	D
28/03	Siwelele FC Reserves South Africa Diski Challenge	1-1	1-2	6	5	L
21/03	Mamelodi Sundowns Reserves South Africa Diski Challenge	0-1	0-2	0	5	L
14/03	Durban City Reserves South Africa Diski Challenge	–	1-0	–	–	W
08/03	Polokwane City Reserves South Africa Diski Challenge	2-0	2-0	5	6	W

Sekhukhune United Reserves

WLDWWWWLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	Siwelele FC Reserves South Africa Diski Challenge	0-0	1-0	8	5	W
09/05	Richards Bay FC Reserves South Africa Diski Challenge	0-2	0-4	4	4	L
02/05	Siwelele FC Reserves South Africa Diski Challenge	1-0	1-2	1	2	L
25/04	Marumo Gallants Reserves South Africa Diski Challenge	1-0	4-0	1	2	W
18/04	Stellenbosch FC Reserves South Africa Diski Challenge	1-0	2-1	3	3	W
12/04	Amazulu Reserves South Africa Diski Challenge	2-0	3-1	3	3	W
28/03	Magesi FC Reserves South Africa Diski Challenge	3-0	3-0	4	5	W
21/03	Golden Arrows Reserves South Africa Diski Challenge	1-1	2-2	8	5	D
14/03	Polokwane City Reserves South Africa Diski Challenge	0-1	1-2	14	4	L
07/03	Chippa United Reserves South Africa Diski Challenge	–	4-0	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Marumo Gallants Reserves vs Sekhukhune United Reserves?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Sekhukhune United Reserves win (45%). Probabilities: Marumo Gallants Reserves 29%, draw 26%, Sekhukhune United Reserves 45%.

How many goals are expected in Marumo Gallants Reserves vs Sekhukhune United Reserves?

The model expects 3.11 goals (Marumo Gallants Reserves 1.37 · Sekhukhune United Reserves 1.74), with a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Marumo Gallants Reserves vs Sekhukhune United Reserves?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.