Football · Panama Liga Prom · 25/09, 23:00

Prediction: Chorrillo vs UMECIT Reserves

Team pages: Chorrillo · UMECIT Reserves

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.92Total

Chorrillo1.86

UMECIT Reserves1.07

1X2

55% 24% 21%

Chorrillo Draw UMECIT Reserves

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Chorrillo 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

LDWDWWDLWW

UMECIT Reserves 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

WDLLWWDLLL

Head-to-head

Chorrillo 2–1 UMECIT Reserves (3 last)

UMECIT Reserves0-1Chorrillo
UMECIT Reserves0-1Chorrillo
Chorrillo0-1UMECIT Reserves

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Chorrillo 1555 · UMECIT Reserves 1447

	Chorrillo	Draw	UMECIT Reserves
Our model	55%	25%	20%
Market	55%	23%	21%

Estimated total (ours) 2.92 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Chorrillo (rating 1555 vs 1447).
H2H favours Chorrillo: 2-0-1.
High corners: 10.7 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 12.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Chorrillo	UMECIT Reserves
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 0.8	1.5 / 2.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.5	0.6 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	13/63/25%	25/50/25%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 5.4	2.4 / 5.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	6.9 / 0.3	5.6 / 0.6

Odds Bet365

11.60

X3.80

24.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.80

2 (+0.75)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 31.98

Under 31.82

Diff.: 0 · xG: 3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:10

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.60 → 1.60	Bet365 1.60
X	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80
2	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.6%

Time*	1	X	2
11:58 +12’	1.60	3.80	4.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Chorrillo 2–0–1 UMECIT Reserves

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
28/02/26 Panama Liga Prom	UMECIT Reserves	0-1	Chorrillo
14/09/25 Panama Liga Prom	UMECIT Reserves	0-1 HT 0-1	Chorrillo
17/03/25 Panama Liga Prom	Chorrillo	0-1 HT 0-0	UMECIT Reserves

Standings · Panama Liga Prom · Apertura, East-South

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Chorrillo	9	5	3	1	16	6	18
2	Tauro FC Reserves	9	4	4	1	16	9	16
3	Plaza Amador Reserves	9	4	1	4	21	18	13
4	Potros Del Este	9	3	1	5	8	10	10
5	Alianza FC Reserves	9	2	2	5	7	15	8
6	San Martin FC	9	2	1	6	16	19	7

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Chorrillo	UMECIT Reserves
Champions FC Academy	3-0 W	3-1 W
Academia Costa Del Este	3-2 W	1-2 L
Sporting San Miguelito Reserves	0-1 L	1-1 D
CD Arabe Unido Reserves	0-0 D	0-3 L
Potros Del Este	1-0 W	1-1 D
Plaza Amador Reserves	3-0 W	4-6 L
San Martin FC	4-1 W	2-4 L
Tauro FC Reserves	2-2 D	0-2 L
Record vs common	5 W 2 D 1 L	1 W 2 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: Chorrillo (7 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Chorrillo

LDWDWWDLWW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/09	Champions FC Academy Panama Liga Prom	0-0	3-0	8	7	W
11/09	Academia Costa Del Este Panama Liga Prom	1-2	3-2	6	10	W
05/09	Sporting San Miguelito Reserves Panama Liga Prom	–	0-1	–	–	L
27/08	CD Arabe Unido Reserves Panama Liga Prom	0-0	0-0	3	7	D
20/08	Potros Del Este Panama Liga Prom	0-0	1-0	3	9	W
12/08	Plaza Amador Reserves Panama Liga Prom	1-0	3-0	5	3	W
06/08	Alianza FC Reserves Panama Liga Prom	0-0	0-0	8	8	D
30/07	San Martin FC Panama Liga Prom	–	4-1	–	–	W
24/07	Tauro FC Reserves Panama Liga Prom	1-1	2-2	4	6	D
30/04	Alianza FC Reserves Panama Liga Prom	0-1	0-2	6	7	L

UMECIT Reserves

WDLLWWDLLL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	San Martin FC Panama Liga Prom	0-3	2-4	2	10	L
12/09	Plaza Amador Reserves Panama Liga Prom	1-3	4-6	13	6	L
04/09	Tauro FC Reserves Panama Liga Prom	0-0	0-2	4	9	L
30/08	Potros Del Este Panama Liga Prom	–	1-1	–	–	D
24/08	Panama City FC Panama Liga Prom	1-0	1-0	–	–	W
15/08	Champions FC Academy Panama Liga Prom	2-1	3-1	3	6	W
08/08	CD Arabe Unido Reserves Panama Liga Prom	0-0	0-3	6	2	L
30/07	Academia Costa Del Este Panama Liga Prom	0-0	1-2	3	5	L
24/07	Sporting San Miguelito Reserves Panama Liga Prom	1-1	1-1	6	5	D
01/05	Academia Costa Del Este Panama Liga Prom	–	2-1	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Chorrillo vs UMECIT Reserves?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Chorrillo win (55%). Probabilities: Chorrillo 55%, draw 24%, UMECIT Reserves 21%.

How many goals are expected in Chorrillo vs UMECIT Reserves?

The model expects 2.92 goals (Chorrillo 1.86 · UMECIT Reserves 1.07), with a 54% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Chorrillo vs UMECIT Reserves?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.