Football · Panama Liga Prom · 02/10, 01:00

Prediction: Alianza FC Reserves vs UMECIT Reserves

Team pages: Alianza FC Reserves · UMECIT Reserves

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.19Total

Alianza FC Reserves1.64

UMECIT Reserves1.55

1X2

39% 26% 35%

Alianza FC Reserves Draw UMECIT Reserves

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Alianza FC Reserves 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

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UMECIT Reserves 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Alianza FC Reserves 1–5 UMECIT Reserves (6 last)

UMECIT Reserves3-2Alianza FC Reserves
UMECIT Reserves3-0Alianza FC Reserves
Alianza FC Reserves0-3UMECIT Reserves
Alianza FC Reserves3-5UMECIT Reserves
UMECIT Reserves3-0Alianza FC Reserves
Alianza FC Reserves1-0UMECIT Reserves

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Alianza FC Reserves 1442 · UMECIT Reserves 1449

	Alianza FC Reserves	Draw	UMECIT Reserves
Our model	39%	26%	35%
Market	39%	26%	35%

Estimated total (ours) 3.19 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours UMECIT Reserves: 5-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 11.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Alianza FC Reserves	UMECIT Reserves
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 1.8	1.3 / 2.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.6	0.6 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	25/50/25%	22/56/22%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 4.1	2.1 / 4.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.9 / 0.3	5.6 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

12.30

X3.50

22.55

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.80

2 (0)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 32.00

Under 31.80

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 3.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:16

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.30 → 2.30	Bet365 2.30
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	2.55 → 2.55	Bet365 2.55

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
16:05 +11’	2.30	3.50	2.55

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Alianza FC Reserves 1–0–5 UMECIT Reserves

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/03/26 Panama Liga Prom	UMECIT Reserves	3-2	Alianza FC Reserves
21/09/25 Panama Liga Prom	UMECIT Reserves	3-0 HT 1-0	Alianza FC Reserves
21/03/25 Panama Liga Prom	Alianza FC Reserves	0-3 HT 0-2	UMECIT Reserves
28/09/24 Panama Liga Prom	Alianza FC Reserves	3-5 HT 1-3	UMECIT Reserves
01/03/24 Panama Liga Prom	UMECIT Reserves	3-0 HT 1-0	Alianza FC Reserves
07/09/23 Panama Liga Prom	Alianza FC Reserves	1-0 HT 0-0	UMECIT Reserves

Standings · Panama Liga Prom · Apertura, East-South

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Chorrillo	10	6	3	1	19	6	21
2	Tauro FC Reserves	10	5	4	1	19	11	19
3	Plaza Amador Reserves	10	5	1	4	22	18	16
4	Potros Del Este	10	3	1	6	10	13	10
5	Alianza FC Reserves	10	2	2	6	8	18	8
6	San Martin FC	10	2	1	7	16	21	7

Common opponents 10 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Alianza FC Reserves	UMECIT Reserves
Champions FC Academy	1-3 L	3-1 W
Academia Costa Del Este	0-2 L	1-2 L
Sporting San Miguelito Reserves	1-0 W	1-1 D
CD Arabe Unido Reserves	1-2 L	0-3 L
Panama City FC	0-1 L	1-0 W
Tauro FC Reserves	1-1 D	0-2 L
Potros Del Este	2-1 W	1-1 D
Chorrillo	0-0 D	0-3 L
Plaza Amador Reserves	1-4 L	4-6 L
San Martin FC	1-4 L	2-4 L
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 6 L	2 W 2 D 6 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Alianza FC Reserves

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/09	Champions FC Academy Panama Liga Prom	0-2	1-3	1	6	L
18/09	Academia Costa Del Este Panama Liga Prom	0-1	0-2	6	3	L
11/09	Sporting San Miguelito Reserves Panama Liga Prom	1-0	1-0	6	4	W
06/09	CD Arabe Unido Reserves Panama Liga Prom	0-0	1-2	4	8	L
29/08	Panama City FC Panama Liga Prom	–	0-1	–	–	L
23/08	Tauro FC Reserves Panama Liga Prom	1-0	1-1	5	10	D
15/08	Potros Del Este Panama Liga Prom	1-1	2-1	3	7	W
06/08	Chorrillo Panama Liga Prom	0-0	0-0	3	8	D
31/07	Plaza Amador Reserves Panama Liga Prom	1-1	1-4	5	3	L
24/07	San Martin FC Panama Liga Prom	–	1-4	–	–	L

UMECIT Reserves

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	Chorrillo Panama Liga Prom	0-0	0-3	1	6	L
20/09	San Martin FC Panama Liga Prom	0-3	2-4	2	10	L
12/09	Plaza Amador Reserves Panama Liga Prom	1-3	4-6	13	6	L
04/09	Tauro FC Reserves Panama Liga Prom	0-0	0-2	4	9	L
30/08	Potros Del Este Panama Liga Prom	–	1-1	–	–	D
24/08	Panama City FC Panama Liga Prom	1-0	1-0	–	–	W
15/08	Champions FC Academy Panama Liga Prom	2-1	3-1	3	6	W
08/08	CD Arabe Unido Reserves Panama Liga Prom	0-0	0-3	6	2	L
30/07	Academia Costa Del Este Panama Liga Prom	0-0	1-2	3	5	L
24/07	Sporting San Miguelito Reserves Panama Liga Prom	1-1	1-1	6	5	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Alianza FC Reserves vs UMECIT Reserves?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Alianza FC Reserves win (39%). Probabilities: Alianza FC Reserves 39%, draw 26%, UMECIT Reserves 35%.

How many goals are expected in Alianza FC Reserves vs UMECIT Reserves?

The model expects 3.19 goals (Alianza FC Reserves 1.64 · UMECIT Reserves 1.55), with a 51% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Alianza FC Reserves vs UMECIT Reserves?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.